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I was just being facetious. yes I've known this. except if you look past the last 20 years, particularly in the 70s-early 90s, that we've seen inversions, and yet market failed to make new low relative to the inflation peak (blue line). the secular bull trend is still intact as far as I'm...

yield curve's inverted! we're all fucked, save the children!

According to the dot plot, it's about 1 year away. so what reasons do you have for knowing better than the fed?

Considering the market is forward looking, it would be anticipating the fed pivot before it happens. The 10 yr yield shows where bond traders stand relative to the fed. And the data we've been getting has painted the picture that we're seeing lower inflation with good job numbers, suggesting...

it's as if you're saying the market can't do that, or that you'd be surprised if it did.

I'm interested to know who are these people you follow, and what's their track record. Who's saying we need to go to 8-9%? that's not even close to the fed roadmap we have now, meanwhile inflation has been trending down like they wanted. and vix has not been a reliable indicator for true market...

I haven't dug very deeply though your posts. but did you ever write more in dept about your trading/investing strategy? I saw you don't do fundamentals and yet also averse to shorter time frames due to your other commitments. So where does the alpha come from? Are you adopting CANSLIM...

on a related note, I'm trying to learn google app script so i can turn csv files from my broker statement into journal entries that I don't have to input manually. I know there are websites that do this, but I've not found one that was super reliable, since a good chunk of my trading is in...

so you always follow your plan and never notice things in your trading that needs improvement and worth writing down?

I like to take into consideration the narrative to go along with the price action. the big red candle from last week was likely from poor economic data and recession fears, although the actual sell off came 2 hours after the numbers came out premarket. /es bounced perfectly off the 20 day moving...

want to swing to 4165..

I know this is an area of my trading that's been severely lacking. I've been complacent, and I know it has affected my discipline. And I realize this is likely a personal metric, but I'm curious among the profitable traders, how much time do you spend journaling your trades, compared to your...

are we just going to ignore the inverted yield curve now?

I've noticed in the last few months that despite crude and nat gas prices staying relatively low, certain o&g names have been making all time highs, or very close to it. most notable example is probably $NINE. Any good explanation for why this is?

scott carney is a good source. he sort of pioneered modern day harmonic patterns using fibs and is pretty much number 1 resource there is. pretty sure you can get his book(s) for free if you look him up. I never got really into it myself, but find it nice to look at them from time to time.

To the veterans, what were the market sentiments like back in 07 leading up to 08? And how did it compare to now? It seems like everyone and their dog knows there's a recession on the horizon, if it's not here already. Maybe this bear market shares more similarity to the 2000 crash, where...

so was crude oil

Everyone is thinking hawkish fed. That's been priced at this point. So any kind of dovish talk tomorrow or any time in the future could effectively lead to a nice rally, the way the crude drop led to the rally today. Probably safer to just stay liquid, as I've not had much success even on the...

congrats on your success. i am trying to migrate towards that as well. I have been doing a poor job capturing the big moves. I think it's because I set unrealistic r/r ratios..

a little snapshot comparison of qqq in late 2018 vs right now. bullish divergence on the oscillators in both scenarios. both markets paying close attention to fomc. seasonality is a bit different, and the last 2018 fomc happened on 12/18-19, a few days before the market bottomed on one last...