How obvious were the 2008 and 2000 crashes?

S

spectastic

To the veterans, what were the market sentiments like back in 07 leading up to 08? And how did it compare to now? It seems like everyone and their dog knows there's a recession on the horizon, if it's not here already. Maybe this bear market shares more similarity to the 2000 crash, where valuations were through the roof and had to come back down. Or perhaps there's a better comparison to the 70s. In any case, no 2 crashes are the same, but they do rhyme. What historical time period do you think rhymes best with what we're seeing now?
 
The housing crisis was easy to point out in 2007 but the stock market ignored it until lehman brothers collapsed, so there was a delay of about a year between when the housing market translated into market turmoil. I was not trading during the 2000 crash.
 
The pullback in 2007 was 10%(DJI 14.1K to 12.7K). Bear Stearns collapsed on 28th Mar 08 and Lehman collapsed on 15th Sep 08. If the crash can be foreseen, then there would be plenty of Michael Burry kind of success. None or few except Michael Burry. The pullback in 2022 is 22%(DJI 36.8K to 28.7K). The crash is coming ?
 
The 2007 stock market wasn't a speculative bubble. Not obvious the stock market was going to crash back in 2007.

2000 bear market was after a speculative stock market bubble, as was this recent bubble after the pandemic. More predictable a nasty crash will happen at somepoint.
 
Last edited:
Was looking to buy a property in 2006-07. Told my wife to hold off because there was so much talk of a real estate collapse. Instead we bought in 2009 at nearly 100k below asking.

Sold in 2019 at 500k over asking.

Timing luck
 
spectastic said:
To the veterans, what were the market sentiments like back in 07 leading up to 08? And how did it compare to now? It seems like everyone and their dog knows there's a recession on the horizon, if it's not here already. Maybe this bear market shares more similarity to the 2000 crash, where valuations were through the roof and had to come back down. Or perhaps there's a better comparison to the 70s. In any case, no 2 crashes are the same, but they do rhyme. What historical time period do you think rhymes best with what we're seeing now?
More...

Monthlies in 2000 have H&S pattern, so obvious sell, 2008 was a gift as 2007 stocks over valued then 2008 banking problems. Recent highs again gave chart patterns to sell, over spending by government and too low of interest rates.
 
spectastic said:
To the veterans, what were the market sentiments like back in 07 leading up to 08? And how did it compare to now? It seems like everyone and their dog knows there's a recession on the horizon, if it's not here already. Maybe this bear market shares more similarity to the 2000 crash, where valuations were through the roof and had to come back down. Or perhaps there's a better comparison to the 70s. In any case, no 2 crashes are the same, but they do rhyme. What historical time period do you think rhymes best with what we're seeing now?
More...

Well, I can't comment on what exactly happened in the 70s but I've experienced both 2000 and 2008 crashes. They were both characterized by "This time it's DIFFERENT!" Yeah, right.

Excuse me, but did you say "no 2 crashes are the same"? Yes, they're the same. Only thing that changes are the lame excuses to keep inflating the bubble. Then when the bubble finally pops, they throw the baby out with the bathwater. Then they come up with more lame excuses to justify what happened (without ever understanding "why" it happened). Then the whole cycle repeats itself.

It will bound to happen again. It happens around every 10 years. Well, probably shorter now with these impatient Gen-Z's and millennials.
 
Businessman said:
The 2007 stock market wasn't a speculative bubble. Not obvious the stock market was going to crash back in 2007.

2000 bear market was after a speculative stock market bubble, as was this recent bubble after the pandemic. More predictable a nasty crash will happen at somepoint.
More...
I changed strategies after the 2000/2002 meltdown. I was mostly in cash in 2007/8 because the stocks I owned had changed trends, same as 2000.

Most of the credit goes to Weinstein's stage analysis.
 
deaddog said:
Every crash is proceeded by a trend change that gives the trader an opportunity to exit.

Possible exception was the flash crash 2010.
More...
But there are also tons of head fakes that look like "trend changes" during long-term bull markets. Distinguishing them is easier said than done. The 2020 Covid crash/recovery is a good example. The market went down over 30% then back to new all-time highs in like 7 months. In hindsight you can spot the trend changes...but in real-time it was much harder. Tons of people on here (including a guy whose name rhymes with Ben Howlmoon) were extremely bearish in late April as the market started rocketing back up.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top