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Intrade has it at about 94%.

If you are short, here are some things to consider: Hitting completely obvious support in the 1080s, VIX spikes to around the same level as the last few pullbacks, we usually go up on Mondays, only once have we had more than two down weeks since March, it is not common to have 4 down days in a...

So far the Nikkei is actually doing well since it was up yesterday, it is still a couple hundred points above the Dow and with the Yen where it is you could make a case that it is doing better than almost any worldwide exchange right now. Hong Kong on the other hand is getting killed, it is...

IF the market fails at the 18-19 area THEN expect a run toward the low of the day with a stop just above that area, ELSE just wait for confirmation of a reasonably high probability trade.

Exactly. As Wave has posted: if then else. That is why I posted awhile ago if 25 fails then I expect 19, and if 19 fails I expect 11. I didn’t know if they would trade or if they would fail, I just know what I will do if that does happen and since I have a defined level I know where I can...

SPX having 1150+ as support, and VIX having 15 as resistance would give you the setup for the heretofore absent 10% pullback, but timing it is always the problem. Not unlike times in the past I think China may have a lot to do with helping any real correction take place. You can’t discount...

The gap from Jan 1 is now officially closed, with the next one being just below 1100. Last year’s close, 50d sma, and bottom of standard Bollinger bands pretty close to the same level at today’s low so far. If they are going to save it, they should keep us from going much lower. VIX has...

Like I said, 25 breaks it goes to 19, then if 19 breaks it goes to 11. Unfortunately the predictable trade is done now, so I have to wait and see how real this move is to figure what is next.

Now in the 19 range as expected when 25 broke. JPM down 5%, that is pretty ugly.

Sorry, off by .0002, the low so far is 1.4066, I will try to do better next time.

Ammo, did you notice the W double bottom? It works well intraday too. It is actually surprising how predictable this market is sometimes, I keep thinking it will throw in a curve ball and do something different, but it hasn’t happened so far.

This is what I posted elsewhere yesterday morning about the Euro: “Seems Euro should hold the 1.4260 area or it looks like a quick trip to 1.42, then 1.4068 if that doesn’t hold it.” We are due for a bounce since we have come so far, but I don’t see how that will change the downtrend...

We bounced at 25 because that was the low on the 5th, which so far is the lowest swing low since we took off to the upside for the new year. If that doesn’t hold then 19 should be the next level followed by 11 if things fall apart this week. If they do hold it up then no real damage has been...

CSX down over 3%, IBM has erased most all of today’s gain, Schwab down over 3% after reporting their earnings. So how big will the gap up tomorrow be in the ES?

IBM on fire right now, and intrade has the Dems losing the senate seat with an 84% probability. I don’t know what is going to happen tomorrow, but everyone else seems to have already decided we will gap to news highs.

It looks like a W so that is how I noted it, but I view them as simple double bottom patterns. I like to keep things simple, the market told us a few months ago that 1080 was support, and now that area is 1127. If we get a confirmed break of that (as apposed to the quick head fake premarket...

W The patterns are not always perfect, but they are there if you are looking for them.

Thanks, the key this morning though was the 1127 area. Look at your chart and see how many times going long in the 27-29 area has worked recently. I am not long above 1140 though, I don’t know who will win the election today so too much risk to guess at that.

Statistically speaking, meaning no thought or opinion involved, we have a 93.3% chance of next week being up by looking at the market from March until now; rare to have two consecutive down weeks. Looking at the market from November until now gives us a 96.2% chance of Tuesday being up; very...

I don’t see a leverage per trade size flying, but they could make things reasonable based on a few criteria. They can always break up their trades and use different accounts at different firms to avoid the limits. They have different levels of option trading ability depending on your...