ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

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Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Well, if a bottom is stage here from below 1113 to 1100 area, then a squeeze to 50 or higher will send VIX back to the historical low level where real hard crash can happen, isn't it?
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LC got it! Give it six months.
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

Well, if a bottom is stage here from below 1113 to 1100 area, then a squeeze to 50 or higher will send VIX back to the historical low level where real hard crash can happen, isn't it?
More...
SPX having 1150+ as support, and VIX having 15 as resistance would give you the setup for the heretofore absent 10% pullback, but timing it is always the problem. Not unlike times in the past I think China may have a lot to do with helping any real correction take place. You can’t discount the possibility that it has already started.
 
Quote from opt789:

SPX having 1150+ as support, and VIX having 15 as resistance would give you the setup for the heretofore absent 10% pullback, but timing it is always the problem. Not unlike times in the past I think China may have a lot to do with helping any real correction take place. You can’t discount the possibility that it has already started.
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That's why we have to speculate with proper money management. =)
 
Quote from Lawrence Chan:

That's why we have to speculate with proper money management. =)
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Exactly.
As Wave has posted: if then else.
That is why I posted awhile ago if 25 fails then I expect 19, and if 19 fails I expect 11. I didn’t know if they would trade or if they would fail, I just know what I will do if that does happen and since I have a defined level I know where I can put a reasonable stop.
(LC not only knows all that, he knows a lot more, but I thought someone else here might appreciate it.)

Right now I am waiting for 18-19 or the low of the day to break for any trade other than a scalp.
 
01-16-10 09:20 AM

I am looking for the Euro to get back to parity and below with the US dollar.

Here is how I am playing this. Strong dollar = weak stocks. The market is setting up for a dip, a nice run, then another massive dip equivalent to the 2008 drop which should start forming during the summer 2010.
 
We got the first part started, the dip. Now we position ourselves for the run back up, bring the VIX down to the levels it needs to get the bear started.
 
Quote from opt789:


Right now I am waiting for 18-19 or the low of the day to break for any trade other than a scalp.
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IF the market fails at the 18-19 area THEN expect a run toward the low of the day with a stop just above that area, ELSE just wait for confirmation of a reasonably high probability trade.
 
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