ES Journal Archive (2009 - 2010)

[wave]

Quote from tortoise:

Can you illustrate with a chart?

If you look at a weekly or monthly chart starting from the highs in 2007, you can see the 1-4 wave sequence. Timing the turns of the VIX Macro cycles is where the buy/sell and hold money is made.
The VIX bottoming formation is coinciding with the bottom in the US Dollar.

 

[JSSPMK]

6 Composite/week 2/2010

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2703172>

 

[JSSPMK]

Wrong dates on graph, should be 1 July 09 - 17 January 2010

 

[tortoise]

Quote from wave:

If you look at a weekly or monthly chart starting from the highs in 2007, you can see the 1-4 wave sequence. Timing the turns of the VIX Macro cycles is where the buy/sell and hold money is made.
The VIX bottoming formation is coinciding with the bottom in the US Dollar.

thanks.

 

[ammo]

Quote from JSSPMK:

but it's just paper afterall, if economy is to slip, so should USD too, temporary rise whilst stocks tumble I dig but longer term

http://www.analysis-news.com/allfolder/Understanding-I.htm they need to support it,it's ammo

 

[opt789]

Statistically speaking, meaning no thought or opinion involved, we have a 93.3% chance of next week being up by looking at the market from March until now; rare to have two consecutive down weeks. Looking at the market from November until now gives us a 96.2% chance of Tuesday being up; very rare two have two consecutive down days.

So if you are convinced we are going lower, and you could indeed be correct, you may want to wait and see if we can break our very first support level before taking on bet that is over 90% against you.

 

[ammo]

covered my last few last nite at 31.75 and 32.75, posted a chart on thur or fri of last 5 selloffs lasting 3 days, so tue ,one more dip to 1122-17 area,then rally, offering 38 and 41..edit..for journal purposes ,not to be counted as valid trades ,since not posted real time

 

[ammo]

interesting break of mar low tl and supp of july low tl

 

[ammo]

same chart, reduced, yellow lines are same 2 tl's

 

[startraitor]

Now.

Quote from opt789:

When do you expect this volatility to start?
For two straight months we have had essentially the lowest realized vol we have seen in a long time, and some of the lowest that has ever happened in the history of the market. Yesterday and today fit our recent pattern well, so there is no current indication of any meaningful movement of any kind. The VIX is 30% higher than it should be, so those traders also think large movement is coming, but they have been dead wrong for so long it is hard to give any predictive power to them.