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OK, thanks. Question: What level of occurrence of an event indicates non-random behavior? For example in a state Lottery if on average 1,000,000 people participate each week and a single individual won the jackpot in 37 of 52 weeks during the year there would be a question as to the random...

Criteria: Random Number = Excel RAND() assigned to each bar and recalculated for each run Random selection for trade: Rand() > .30 AND < .3205 which gives about 200 trades, of which about 50 will have a fill based on the Stop Limit order cited in the Rules For Predictive: value of NN...

In theory true, but that has no practical relevance to the real world trading. Based on Quantum Theory there is the possibility of a person being able to walk through a solid wall, if you have exactly the right conditions at the quantum level. If I recall the math predicts such an occurrence...

Yes, PF = Win/Loss in points

MAESTRO, I'd like to call on your knowledge to answer some questions: What is the maxium Profit Factor that is possible from any strategy or method if the markets are random? Max PF Random (check one) __1.5 __ 2.0 __ 2.5 __3.0 __ 3.5 __ 4.0 __ 4.5 __ 5.0 __ 5.5 What is the...

The collection of samples and theoretical analysis is one approach. The other is performance based. If one assumes the market is random then by definition it is impossible to predict the next price bar or the next 10 or if prices will be higher or lower in 5 bars or anything with consistency...

It’s not necessary to read this or any book to find "useful tools" that in and of themselves do not make a trading system. The steps require a bit of programming but conceptually it's not that difficult: 1) Acquire a Genetic Algorithm engine like PI-Blue or similar. 2) Get 20 or 30...

Even sadder is the assumption that the dynamics of a system composed of single operators (1 pigeon or 1 person) are the same as a complex system involving many hundreds of thousands of operators. I really surprised that at the low quality of perception where people don't understand the...

Sorry if I picked on your comment when mine were directed at the entire topic. What's the point of extended discussion of something so unrelated to the market? Why not post and discuss research that is relevant as there is a lot of it?

It's importation to step back and really look at this. Predicting Netflix preferences is in essence a one to one relationship: One person and their taste in movies. A given market in each moment reflects the "taste" of many, many thousands of investors. The two are very different...

Then you have it! Congratulations. The 80% WL ratio is a kind of magic number with manual traders (those that look at charts or TIs and make a decision in contrast to those who let the computer do the deciding). At least that was the comments I got from some CME seat holders I know. The...

Statistically 11 trades is far to small a sample to indicate anything. However if in say 100 trades your W/L rato is above 90% then you're putting this random question to rest.

Well perhaps he uses automatic trading, you know software that does it for you, so you aren't a computer monitor slave all day long.

I take it you not in IT. They are a lot smarter than you saying would indicate. I wasn't commenting on you, but that this comapny would find enough fools to stay in business

Damm what a great idea!! Get people to pay you to see if their systems works after you give them your system. The assurance of their confidentiality is silly....basically their only business is testing systems so they have no motivation to copy and use your system for their own purposes...

I use NNs exclusively for all aspects of trading. Yes, data per-processing (normalization) and post processing are really hard parts. Most traders who lack a formal math and IT background fail at this miserably and conclude that soft computing doesn't work. The other part that requires...

I may be of interest to both those potentially offering programming services and those needing them if you could give a general idea of the value added by this programmer. For example his algos increase net returns by 5% or 50%, or something more? Who knows there may be others who would like...

Gert real? 100,000 hours at 8 hours a day is 32 years! So you started on your system in 1972? What took you so long to create a profitable system? When hiring a programmer I'd hire someone who can program faster than that! Also, I'd never hire a programer who is a trader. Why...

Jack, Thanks for the reply, but I think we trade in different dimensions as I still don't follow what you are saying. It's not relevant to what I do so don't bother responding further. Jerry030

You missed soft computing in your survey of IT and trading. Also in Futres at least pit trading is almost dead. It's electronic now.