Why do I see "Trends" in Randomly Generated Data?

[Jerry030]

Quote from chinook:

If the system is viable, wouldn't they use the idea

Damm what a great idea!!

Get people to pay you to see if their systems works after you give them your system.

The assurance of their confidentiality is silly....basically their only business is testing systems so they have no motivation to copy and use your system for their own purposes.

Anyone who has ever worked in IT knows that programmers will do as they please regardless of what the web site says. I used to work in bank consulting and when more than one programmer got fired and we cleaned out his desk we found the complete financial records on CD of hundreds of thousands of client bank customers that the guy wasn't authorized to even access, yet less make a copy of.

So I hereby offer to undercut Market Testing Wizards. I'll test your system for free and let you know if it's any good. Just send me your complete system and I'll let you know....

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from chinook:

If the system is viable, wouldn't they use the idea

Who cares? as far as I am concerned that is the point with PVT, SCT and sector rotation. anyone who wants to can choose to use it.

Its used on a least 25 exchanges that we know of.

some people use it others do not. If a person wnats to use it, he simply gets up to speed and becomes an expert.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from kut2k2:

What kind of idiot would submit his trading system to perfect strangers to test for him?

What I have found is that people who do testing usually take quite a while to get up to speed on what they are testing.

Surfer knows these people and knows their contract and reputation. They are going to be saticfying his challenge.

I am the one who checks them out to see if they are getting the job done.

This is not one of those Trader666 thingy's nor is is an approach that averages 18.75 per 100 share trade like Mark Brown.

The stuff they are testing is public information at this point.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from chinook:

I'm thinking that if they can't backtest their own ideas then their 'system' will probably won't be any good anyway The guys who run that business are very smart he he

Very humorous IF... THEN....

If Surfer doesn't drop the ball on his challenge, then these very smart guys get to have, apparently, a new life experience.

I've seen guys with 30 years experience who where officers on the floor have "the experience". You can bet your ass that after that they hire programmers.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from Rahula:

Jack,

I must admit, when there isn't much news/earnings to trade off of I do trade the "trend". I sometimes use TL channels similar to what you use. However I feel the best way to trade a trend is to use a simple moving average.

In a very friendly way, I suggest that you do not do anything similar to what SCT traders, or I do. Please just relax and dispell that thought.

TLs are highly subjective - given any chart any trader can draw up to 20 RTLs and 20 LTLs - but which one to actually trade off of? That's all highly subjective.

this comment reinforces what I suggested above. Pairs of RTL's and LTL's contain price. Sit and think of this for a moment. Think about using 3 pairs, that is what I do ALL of the time. It is absolutely CERTAIN that ALL of the time price is
INSIDE of each and every one of these pairs at EVERY moment in time.

Trading is done to make money. Let's say we both have a lot of money and it is in accounts. Let's say, for simplicity and to keep this response brief, that the capital is divided among the three accounts. I know how it is divided to take advantage of the capacity of the market to take all of my trades. I have to weekly sweep all accounts and put surpluses in PVT type accounts. I have 11 of these, for example.

Here you see briefly that trading channels (3 comprized of RTL's and LTL's) is absolutely clear and absolutely certain (certain is the opposite of subjective)

A SMA, on the otherhand is very objective - go long above SMA and go short below it.

I have three channels running; I am in trades during RTH for each channel; rhetorically, where is your single 20ma with respect to the three concurrent trades I have running (all on the right side of the market for that fractal at the capacity or up to 5 times the cpacity of that fractal). Do I care where the 20ma is? It is in both long and short channels at any time it turns out. Do you know which channel I am running that the signal you speak of works? The answer is NONE. I am always front running you with certainty of making money all of the time. you may be able to see that trading a market has capacity limitations. So far you have never mentioned capacity in any post. Don't start now, you don't have the problem.

This strategy obviously backtests very poorly if you take every signal.

MA testing never tests well. The market doesn't have one frequency of operation. MA's give late entry and late exit signals for both long and short. People who use them are advanced beginners at best and are still in a trading modus of entries and exits using edges. no one gets beyond advanced beginner using entries and exits for trading.

A person may graduate to HOLD/REVERSAL strategies at some point to advance into an intermediate level. By that time they know that channels overlap. they know this as a certainty and they know with certainty when the overlap begins and ends. you so far do not know channels overlap and you, necessarily cannot know when the overlap begins and ends. You are still in the MA world and doing entries and exits. HOLD/REVERSAL traders, effectively do exit/entry and this event is at one moment and it is called a reversal when a trader is trading at the capacity of the market to take actions, the reversal trade total value is at the capacityy. to get around this, I use a partial fill strategy where I do 5 rapid fire trades in sequence at the capacity of the market at that time in the day.

Thus its takes a pro trader to filter out the noise and sit it out.

Pro traders are in the market all of the time. What they know they know is: the right side of the market to be on and how much the market can handle of their capital. "Sitting it out" is what non pro's do as a consequence of not "knowing that they know". I make it a policy of knowing what my next 3 to 5 trades are gong to be at any time during the day. That's because Jesus wants me for a Sunbeam".

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from Jerry030:

Damm what a great idea!!

Get people to pay you to see if their systems works after you give them your system.

The assurance of their confidentiality is silly....basically their only business is testing systems so they have no motivation to copy and use your system for their own purposes.

Anyone who has ever worked in IT knows that programmers will do as they please regardless of what the web site says. I used to work in bank consulting and when more than one programmer got fired and we cleaned out his desk we found the complete financial records on CD of hundreds of thousands of client bank customers that the guy wasn't authorized to even access, yet less make a copy of.

So I hereby offer to undercut Market Testing Wizards. I'll test your system for free and let you know if it's any good. Just send me your complete system and I'll let you know....

My definition of a prenup is: "give her everything but your system."

As for IT and computer science people the saying is: give them everything on paper and they will never be able to design it or test it or operate it.

It is very difficult to give anyone a system under any circumstances.

I know you weren't referring to me with your offer. You already gave me your views on that transfer.

 

[Jerry030]

Quote from jack hershey:

My definition of a prenup is: "give her everything but your system."

As for IT and computer science people the saying is: give them everything on paper and they will never be able to design it or test it or operate it.


I know you weren't referring to me with your offer. You already gave me your views on that transfer.

I take it you not in IT. They are a lot smarter than you saying would indicate.

I wasn't commenting on you, but that this comapny would find enough fools to stay in business

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from Jerry030:

I take it you not in IT. They are a lot smarter than you saying would indicate.

I wasn't commenting on you, but that this comapny would find enough fools to stay in business

Lets watch this play out.

I do not take anything you say personally and I am speaking from experience.

Surfer is getting a hold of the outfit he is shilling for on ET (for me, I think this is a violation of the rules, personally).

Naturally, I am posting here to cover the bases ASAP and getting surfer to get on it. Surfer and others are going to find out just what backtesting is. Personally I am the forward testing type and I just make sure the forward testing achieves what I do manually.

These guys are going to get my input via surfer and he is goibng to get them "to produce" a product which has a whole load of results specifications that show that there is no induction in the script, no probability with respect to it's not functioning, etc.

We will have transparency and I will have to ditch the humor for a while so that progress can be made.

Where we are in the infinite scheme of things is the model is over 45 years old; the design was done before PC's and software languages used on PC's. When C was coming out of Murray Hill,
I was long gone and long gone form IBM as well. Braithwaite was still in waiting but I was in the first grad school graduating group that is now credited for establishing the department at RPI and I was a grad in EE as well and recruiting for IBM within three years of exiting formal ed the first time around. Next I went into thoeretical physics (by invitation) and a lot of the staffing was out of the Manhattan project.

When I managed two of the five divisions at the University City Science center (a 29 college and university consortium) one of the buildings was an APL center that used two 360's back to back 24/7.

Now we get to play.

We get to see unbelievable and astonishing. and it will be freeware that is tested to a Tee, the whole nine yards.

I know this outfit of surf's is not up to speed and SO DO YOU!

We are going to have a public laugh from here to eternity.

Maybe what Surfer is going to get is a life experience. The outfit is sure going to have one. Once we find out where these guys are located and how good they are at handling workloads dictated by surf, we will all see what has to be done to shape things up.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from marketsurfer:

how about JACK HERSHEY and PROFLOGIC submit to market testing wizards---odds are 10 to 1 they wouldn't DARE!

http://www.markettestingwizards.com

Hey Surf, I have a better idea. Why don't you do the testing.
Oh, sorry, forgot . . . you aren't able.

I have 100 to 1 that Surf doesn't personally trade a lick. I mean gee, anyone with his posting record couldn't possibly earn a living at it.

Probably the Flat Earth president to boot.

Happy Easter . . . rabbit!

 

[Jerry030]

Quote from ProfLogic:

Hey Surf, I have a better idea. Why don't you do the testing.
Oh, sorry, forgot . . . you aren't able.

I have 100 to 1 that Surf doesn't personally trade a lick. I mean gee, anyone with his posting record couldn't possibly earn a living at it.

Probably the Flat Earth president to boot.

Happy Easter . . . rabbit!

Well perhaps he uses automatic trading, you know software that does it for you, so you aren't a computer monitor slave all day long.