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  1. Q

    The SPX has hit a cyclical top

    Did you read this part ? "Between now and end of 2019"
  2. Q

    What I do not understand about "prop firms"...

    Look at the ad I got for this thread. They are able to offer 100% profits because they make enough on brokerage cuts and "test" fees lol.
  3. Q

    Preferences for trading / investing

    My "preference" is mechanical in theory/ideal world, but I have not found a mechanical system that can outperform my discretionary for me. If I had one that matched discretionary performance, I would switch over in a heartbeat. Until then it's discretionary for me.
  4. Q

    Intraday martingale with futures

    Limiting to once is not a martingale system. What you are doing is simply splitting your entry into two. It's called averaging/scaling into a trade. That is fine, works well when you are not as accurate with your entries but are better in the overall direction.
  5. Q

    Long tail risk and positive expectancy strategies

    Look at the expiries and strikes again I entered for Feb. A Feb 14xx for a Feb move would've yielded you very little I agree. In fact I am surprised it was even positive. Goes to show we typically understate the exponential nature of the greeks on tails.
  6. Q

    Long tail risk and positive expectancy strategies

    Tail moves. Vomma and gamma will surprise you. In addition you are getting paid for it addressing the long term positive expectancy part of your inquiry.
  7. Q

    Long tail risk and positive expectancy strategies

    Ratio backspreads comes to mind. Especially when you leg in for credit. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/wiped-out-selling-naked-puts-with-no-stop-loss-or-credit-spread.318584/page-3#post-4612575 I used to buy them for a debit outright for hedges like the above. Then why not leg them in...
  8. Q

    Is option calendar spread ever work on future?

    First of all you are asking for the future, you won't find that here. Typically with short front month you will have overall negative delta so yes if crude oil rises faster than the decay then you will likely lose.
  9. Q

    uselessness of the volumes

    A new thread for this farce again ?
  10. Q

    IB TWS tradelog missing contract

    Na I couldn't be bothered as the important parts of portfolio net position and statements are both correct.
  11. Q

    I hate FOMC day

    Short into it
  12. Q

    IB TWS tradelog missing contract

    Hmm already been 2 days and restarted TWS several times, the fills still only tally to 19. The whole order was filled at the same instant. At least the overall net position counter from TWS got it right though so the only error was in the trade log.
  13. Q

    IB TWS tradelog missing contract

    Has anyone experienced any errors in IB's trade log before ? I know I did a 20 contracts yet the trade log shows the trade to be 19. Daily statement confirmed my trade was 20. First time I've seen this type of error with IB. Be careful people make sure you double check your trades and don't...
  14. Q

    The Effective, Winning Pattern in the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Using Options

    First time I've seen a % return (highlighted, no less) quoted on multiple profitable trades stacked onto the risk of one trade, multiplying it many folds.
  15. Q

    Traders With Pockets Full of Crypto Quit Wall Street

    This is a pretty dumb statement considering he works in finance. So in one day he could lose multi-year salaries if he's wrong. If he knew how to trade, the same volatility could be achieved in options and futures - with less costs, better liquidity and better regulation. It's really not a...
  16. Q

    A hypothetical scenario

    I would not call selling options steady monthly income. Income has no downside - if you have a job you can only gain money and not lose any. The possible depreciation of underlying is more volatile than premium collected. But assuming you are happy with the risks/rewards of writing calls on...
  17. Q

    Winning, Losing & BetSize trading the ES

    I'd go for a few more ticks. I set limit orders at what I define as short term extremes that are likely to snap back a few ticks. You can then take half off after a few ticks and let the rest ride for longer, in the case of strong trend. Today: Reentering after SL is a good training...
  18. Q

    Rebates/getting paid for shorting?

    Not stock, this is in options but it is an example.
  19. Q

    The best book of day trading with futures

    True trading wisdom do not become out of date.
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