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I'm trying to understand the relationship between /ZN and TNX. There is another thread here from many years ago, but it didn't answer the pricing. My specific question: ^TNX is at 3.8620 today, implying an interest rate of that much per year for the next X years. (Not sure the exact...

Con1991, Can you confirm that you actually mean $10,000? The max risk on that spread is $10K, not $100. I keep seeing the multiplier not being included in your math.

Since you set up a strawman to be burned: 1. OP said SP500 returns, which would include yield. 2. Tax treatment of SPX would neuter it at 60/40 treatment.

Are you saying that smaller banks are over leveraged on commercial Real estate?

I have two related questions: 1. For Euro style options, what keeps the premium up to date with the price of the underlying? In American style, the buyer of the option could exercise at any time if the price of the option was greatly out of line with the underlying, but for euro style that...

I am looking to trade long term calls on QQQ, but the Dec 2024 calls haven't been listed yet. (Like the SPY Dec 2024's have). Is there schedule of when these come out, if at all?

If the Fed runs out of treasuries, it can't dump them. I don't think (and would be amazed if) the Fed could short treasuries.

Suppose the Fed raised the FFR to 20%. No bank would bother borrowing from the Fed, and instead borrow from any of the other banks. The EFFR wouldn't really move, since the Fed can't force banks to borrow at that rate. I realize that the Fed is made up of banks, but lets say that one of...

This is kinda where I'm confused: It doesn't seem possible to raise the rates without having a huge balance sheet. For example, in 2007, with a much smaller balance sheet, it wouldn't have been possible for them to raise rates. Right now, sure, there are tons of assets to sell or let...

Tl; Dr: How can the Fed raise interest rates if it has no assets on its balance sheet? The Fed sets the Federal Funds Rate, which is the amount it wants banks to lend money to each other. If the banks lend at too high of a rate, the Fed can increase the money supply, and then use that money...

Graphs with axes that don't start at zero are often misleading.

Let's say I have -1 SPY@450, +1 SPY @445. If SPY goes down too much, selling the 450 leg and buying back where? Selling below 445 makes the trade bearish. It seems like I have to move both legs. I am trying to play averages. Without being too specific, I usually trade spy/qqq and...

When you have a [bull] Put spread, and the market goes against you, what ways are there to salvage the trade?

Some things - Trading notional amounts less than a single ES contract starts to get expensive, since the MES contracts have a high commission / fees usually. - No Ex dividend day to worry about with ES, (and less assignment risk if you are trading options) - [May be wrong about this] Cash...

Using debt to finance education seems to be the mistake here. Debt is too low risk to represent what is being bought. I wish for a world where students sell a portion of their future income to investors, so that incentives are aligned. If both parties profit, and both want the student to...

This is the margin I am talking about primarily. I don't understand why you say this. In order to stress test my strategy I need data on historical margin requirements. How much cash collateral was needed on February 28th, 2020 for a long ES contract? What about on March 20th? That is...

In bad times, I noticed several places increase the minimum margin requirement. I am exploring a buy-and-hold strategy, but it depends on not being forced out. FINRA/SEC margin requirements didn't appear to change last March, but several brokers / exchanges did. For instance, I believe...

There is only one signal for the market, and he just got re-appointed. The next "bull" signal will be Dec 15th.

My goto is credit / debit spreads. Dec 2023 SPY 250/150 Put credit spread is a $5.73 credit, which is about 2.4% return on capital. Very easy to scale up the reward/risk by picking farther strikes. SPX if commissions are an issue. If you or your friend are expecting volatility to rise...

I see mouth, but I don't see money.