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Had some bullish ZS data from the USDA yesterday, rallied up pretty strong. Off slightly today, with March options expiration today. Should be interesting to see what happens early next week.

Thanks for this, I don't like the spread functionality in the platform I am using. This might help me out quite a bit, even with the free delayed data.

Just put on a trade thinking that we are on the upper end of that soybean trading range, and we could head back down to the lower end. Did a 10.30 to 10.80 vertical call credit spread for around 7.5 cents, then bought the 940 call for around 5 cents. The strong volume has me a little on edge...

That's a great article, TraD. I also read that article on the Chinese soybean trade, which was fascinating. I continue to play around w/ soybean prices in R. Like TraD said, the beans are stuck in a range bound trading pattern. I have attached an hourly graph of ZSK prices, with the mean...

Wow, this thread is getting a little chippy. Obviously, there are different trading styles for different people. But still, to outright dismiss backtesting and a scientific approach to trading as a whole seems a little short sighted. Insert Renaissance Technologies as Exhibit No. 1 in this...

No major surprises with the WASDE report, from what I could see. What are everyones' thoughts moving forward?

To reiterate, reading briefly on this matter, it may help to file an SEC or NFA complaint as appropriate. That may have more bite in the short term than trying to get a DA to move on a white collar crime.

Here is what our mid-day grain update is saying: AgRural reduced its Brazil soy production estimate to 91.9 mmt vs. 95.0 previous, yield estimates were lowered from 50.3 bags/hectare to 48.6. This compares to last year's record crop of 86.7 mmt. In tomorrow's report, the avg. est. for the...

TraDaTor, which months were you in again on that spread? I looked back a couple of pages, but didn't find it. Getting a small pop in the grains today before the Feb. WASDE report tomorrow. People seem to be expecting some bullish soybean news, in terms of reduced carry out and lower...

You know, they have great fundamental information. For example, they give pretty good info before USDA reports, and on South American weather. However, I do think they underestimate the impact of funds trading on the ag markets. I remember during some heady ZS rallies last year that they kept...

Ag Resources out of Chicago. They noted that on the Tuesday rally, the spread traded out to a $8 premium. A year prior, the March to May spread traded as high as a $20 per ton before going down to a $5 premium near expiration. The Jan/March 2015 spread closed at a -$6.60 discount in really...

I know some of you are trading soy meal already. I have been playing around with R and some really basic quant ideas. I was looking at the ZMH - ZMN spread yesterday. It looks like that spread is mean reverting. The second standard deviation is around $11.8, with the mean around $7.8...

Big rally in the grains today, lower dollar, etc. Is this a trend change or a blip on the screen?

Jerry030, Orange looks really cool. Have you used it at all? I am learning how to do some basic stuff in R, but Orange seems intriguing if I were to ever want to try a data mining strategy (which is way above my head at this point).

Any thoughts on the Live Cattle April/June spread? Interesting looking chart.

Gotcha, thanks.

FCX, was that a soy meal trade? Where did you get filled at? I have been watching the soy meal fairly closely here. Got out of a march vertical put spread at a small profit on the hard break this morning.

You are getting news of Chinese cancellation of bean shipments which is somewhat bearish. There are a ton of soybeans out there. I am bearish in the medium term, although there will always be rallies since they are soybeans.

I feel for you, TraDaTor. I have also seen some of your successful trades here as well, so hopefully that continues.

Corn has gotten hammered over the past couple of days here, even with a slightly friendly USDA report on Monday. That's a good article on the ethanol demand.