Ag trade ideas

TraDaToR said:
I will perhaps follow you. Didn't you say in a previous post some of the guys in your office were getting long sugar?
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yeah but most aren't long anymore, when the cash buyers stopped buying at those levels, they also got out of their futures position. I think a few guys did get hurt by that huge move down tho 2 weeks ago.

Anyway, yeah just keep bouncing those ag ideas around
 
I know some of you are trading soy meal already. I have been playing around with R and some really basic quant ideas. I was looking at the ZMH - ZMN spread yesterday. It looks like that spread is mean reverting. The second standard deviation is around $11.8, with the mean around $7.8. Yesterday would have provided a great chance to get short, but I failed to get on it. This morning, our news service in the office is saying they think those soy meal spreads will eventually return to carry. Those spreads would need to take out the lower end of the ranges that they are in though. Should be interesting to see what happens.
 
thefuturestrader said:
This morning, our news service in the office is saying they think those soy meal spreads will eventually return to carry. Those spreads would need to take out the lower end of the ranges that they are in though. Should be interesting to see what happens.
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It makes sense. Hope it breaks before March expiry...What news service are we talking about?
 
Ag Resources out of Chicago. They noted that on the Tuesday rally, the spread traded out to a $8 premium. A year prior, the March to May spread traded as high as a $20 per ton before going down to a $5 premium near expiration. The Jan/March 2015 spread closed at a -$6.60 discount in really volatile trading before expiration, with basically all of the move happening on the last day. They say they think that the Mar/May spread will close negative with a large soy crop and discounted meal out of South America. I have seen them be pretty wrong before, but the fundamentals definitely seem to point to lower soy meal prices.
 
You know, they have great fundamental information. For example, they give pretty good info before USDA reports, and on South American weather. However, I do think they underestimate the impact of funds trading on the ag markets. I remember during some heady ZS rallies last year that they kept calling for seasonal tops on a daily basis, and we would inevitably get a 25 to 30 cent rally. But, there are plenty of times when the markets seem to flat out ignore the longer term fundamentals.
 
I am looking for a basic ag newswire with no commentary, just:

"12:03 Russian ag minister instates tariffs on corn from January 20th"
"13:45 GASC purchases X cargos of french and romanian wheat"
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Somebody knows a good one?
 
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