That's a great article, TraD. I also read that article on the Chinese soybean trade, which was fascinating. I continue to play around w/ soybean prices in R. Like TraD said, the beans are stuck in a range bound trading pattern. I have attached an hourly graph of ZSK prices, with the mean, and one and two standard deviations shown. It's a little crude, but it shows how exact the price action is w/ regard to the standard deviations.
Ag trade ideas
- Thread starter TraDaToR
- Start date
Thanks, I will take a look and see. It pulled back a bit but is starting to move again now
Just put on a trade thinking that we are on the upper end of that soybean trading range, and we could head back down to the lower end. Did a 10.30 to 10.80 vertical call credit spread for around 7.5 cents, then bought the 940 call for around 5 cents. The strong volume has me a little on edge, but we are also getting near option expiration for March options, with a 3 day weekend.
Had some bullish ZS data from the USDA yesterday, rallied up pretty strong. Off slightly today, with March options expiration today. Should be interesting to see what happens early next week.
Kicking myself for closing out of the ZW/ZS spread and not reentering on the pullback, up about 25pts since I got out. 
Scratch @ 49 finally ...LOL. Even 1 week ago I thought it would go down but this USDA lower soy acreages ruined my last hopes. I love to scratch trades lately, but it's not that stupid when you realize your trade is becoming a gamble...Look at KW/ZW now...
Yeah, soy meal is tough right now. Ag resources is saying that Brazilian soymeal is at a $60 per metric ton discount to the U.S., and that it is profitable for those in the southeast near ports to import soy meal from Brazil. Simple supply and demand would seem to dictate there would be at least cash pressure on soy meal, if not on the board. But, that bullish soybean acres number is supporting things for now.