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Oats is mostly harvested in late August/early september, which means that U is the new crop even if Z is more liquid. After the report, the front month spread went immediately up, even if ( IMO ) it was only slightly bullish. So there must be something brewing in the physical market. Anyway, on...

For whoever reads this, that -4 Oats Z/H iceberg offer looks like free money, check U/Z...

08/15/2019 : Went long Feeders U/X @ -0.9. - Q/U strength. - Corn bearish. - Feeder index higher. -Seasonality.

08/13/2019 : Out @ -2.25. Z/H is getting strong and we are at a 10 year low.:)

08/12/19 : Big WASDE trades so far : - Short ZC U20/Z20 @ 6.75 on ending stocks and seasonality. 8 seconds after the WASDE came online. - Liquidated the rest of my long ZC K20/N20 @ -6 - Went long ZO Z/H @ -4 on U/Z strength and reduced ending stocks.

I guess IV must be high today and monday pre-report, so it was a good idea to buy them earlier...

Get ready for monday : https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-grains-braun/column-trade-estimates-for-u-s-corn-soy-crops-could-lead-the-market-astray-idUKKCN1UZ0VY

08/07/2019 : Out @ -8.25.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/podcasts/crude/072910-iran-hormuz-blockade-sanctions

07/30/2019 : Out @ 97.25.:(

FWIW EH U/V is at its lowest while ethanol plants are closing because of corn price( and basis )...I took a few contracts.

07-29-2019 : Converted it into a J/M/N butterfly. The curve is showing there might be some big demand next year, so this has a better R/R.

...:cool:...

U19/Z19 or U20/Z20?

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2019/07/22/2019-spring-wheat-tour-preview-rough?referrer=twitter#.XTXVW7meLfA.twitter

https://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/midstream-downstream/transport/2019/low-sulphur-high-price

07/19/2019 : Out @ -3.25.

07/16/2019 : Long X/Z/F gasoil butterfly @ 1.25. - I don't see any way IMO would devalue X and F compared to Z. If the increased demand is felt beforehand then X will get the boost before Z and if the increased demand is felt solely on F, then it should profit as well. - Seasonals

07/07/2019 : Short MWU19 / KWU19 @ 93.4. - KW N/U went crazy yesterday and the feed demand of KW should pick up. - HRS conditions increased yesterday and the stocks are plentiful. - Seasonals.

Seriously ZC U/Z looks like a mega sell to me at these levels. U is not part of the potential failing crop whereas U/Z is overbought compared to Z/H and even N/U in the delivery period. The only potential upside is coming from dumb money piling on corn first expiry...Which can actually be a threat.