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  1. 1

    Crash Monday? SVB contagion, VIX spike

    In addition to what Ph1l posted (estimated tax payments throughout the year), I also owe some for 2022 from realized gains in my equities account. But because I never had underpayment of taxes, and for 2022, paid at least 110% of 2021 taxes, I should not be hit for a penalty for 2022. For...
  2. 1

    Crash Monday? SVB contagion, VIX spike

    There were 2 great areas for a trade on ES to be made on Friday and it went pretty much as I described. Short es as it approaches the 50ma on the 60min chart within 5pts of it. It's point A and B in both graphs below, 60 min and 5min. If anyone here were to have followed my basic rules, (s)he...
  3. 1

    Crash Monday? SVB contagion, VIX spike

    I hope someone here made some seripus gains today cuz I didn't. Been driving all morning and still have 3hrs to go so will make this quick. I made a few trades by setting parameters that I mentioned earlier. Was up quite a bit more but couldn't close out trades optimally since I'm driving and...
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    Crash Monday? SVB contagion, VIX spike

    You might get this soon. But a few things need to happen first. I'm slightly bullish NQ, bearish ES (duh). Nq's currently above 50ma on 60min, slope flat. ES below, slope neg. Which will end up leading the other? There's a battle going on between all the HFT algos with no clear winner yet. So...
  5. 1

    Crash Monday? SVB contagion, VIX spike

    Is there a way to search for a post I made in here that shows more than the first sentence in results? And forum settings to show more than 9-10 posts per page? TIA
  6. 1

    Crash Monday? SVB contagion, VIX spike

    I've never written anything about the COMPOSITE (IXIC). NDX currently comprises 101 (used to be 100) of the largest NONFINANCIAL companies in the COMP. Suggest to do some research to better understand why it jumps the way it does. BTW, anyone seeing the NQ's migrate towards the 60min 50ma...
  7. 1

    Crash Monday? SVB contagion, VIX spike

    Would comparing SPX to ES an "odd comparison"? NDX = NQ ≠ NAZ (Nasdaq Composite), Everyone who trades the NQ's knows it's a direct correlation to the NDX (Nasdaq 100), the spread between the 2 "should" narrow to zero at expiration.
  8. 1

    Crash Monday? SVB contagion, VIX spike

    Uhhhh... I may only be able to see out of 1 eye, but I sure as heck do know what I am looking at. Please go re-read what I wrote for complete comprehension so you can see for yourself...
  9. 1

    Crash Monday? SVB contagion, VIX spike

    It was about 1k loss from 66k peak. I made some back after hours and currently unsure what will happen now. We can easily getback at least 1/2 of today's loss tomorrow. But the rhe negative thing about the close today is it was below the 50ma, so the slope will get negative sooner since the...
  10. 1

    Crash Monday? SVB contagion, VIX spike

    It's been a while, but I finally took a lost today... The plot: Had to drive a friend somewhere today... Arrived at his place 5 min before Fed action... Told him we can't leave until I close out a long nq at the time.... Up 6%, 10 min after rate announcement... currently flat, but decided to...
  11. 1

    Gold

    Anybody able to short GLD on the break above 186 then below? I don't trade gold, but looking good if you did.
  12. 1

    Crash Monday? SVB contagion, VIX spike

    Oh,the disclaimer wasn't meant specifically for you but as general statement just to protect me in case some yoyo gets any ideas... For the slope, it's 50 closing prices (60min = hrly). The rate of change (ROC) as Dest alluded to in one of his earlier post sometimes makes a difference. I...
  13. 1

    Crash Monday? SVB contagion, VIX spike

    Stops, trailing stops. When I got a chance to glance at the charts this morning, the 60min NQs had crossed over/under the 50ma 5x already. Gave me a hint to what the day may be like, especially after gapping last nigh and the day after 3x witching which means usually is a rebalance day. If I...
  14. 1

    Crash Monday? SVB contagion, VIX spike

    Ok, first of all: Everything written in this forum by me is my personal opinion and is for information only, should not be construed as financial, investment, legal, tax, or any other advice, and I disclaim all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of my opinions. It works...
  15. 1

    Crash Monday? SVB contagion, VIX spike

    I'm unsure about range other than using Fibs on the 60 min (hrly) and daily @3 month intervals (futes and options exp timing sync.) But I never use those for intraday. However depending on your stomach for risk, my own most profitable stategy intraday has been to NOT predefine the tgt but let...
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    Crash Monday? SVB contagion, VIX spike

    Oh, another important aspect of shorting when the slope is neg for those that are math lazy, the stop (@ 50sma or near it) still gives us a higher probability to be profitable since the slope is going down!.
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    Crash Monday? SVB contagion, VIX spike

    Have them see if this makes any difference. this is the area ( in yellow outline) I am talking about, I'm using closing price only, but optimally using actual price vs volume might be bettter. @NCC, never a dumb question with me. We all start somewhere.. SMA = simple moving average
  18. 1

    Crash Monday? SVB contagion, VIX spike

    Would love to see the test results. There is one other thing I need to point oujt. Since there's only 2 variables for the slope to change. The less meaningful being time. I haven't worked out what the markets will be like when there are days where the slope chanes due to index staying same and...
  19. 1

    Crash Monday? SVB contagion, VIX spike

    Hey Ken, Since you are th OP, I took some time this morning to see some of your posts and it seems you are way too biased short side? Since it was your thread that instilled me to register and post my thoughts, (getting smoked/grilled/broiled in the process) I'll share a bit my thoughts and...
  20. 1

    Gold

    Here’s my take on this. I would be looking to short GLD. The risk/re is prudent at the numbers as follows: I would short if it pulls back below ~181.5 using looks like 184 as a stop. Tgt would be 170. 4:1 r/r. The follow through if this were to happen, I have found is often times something like...
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