Crash Monday? SVB contagion, VIX spike

[destriero]

Would love to see the test results. There is one other thing I need to point oujt. Since there's only 2 variables for the slope to change. The less meaningful being time. I haven't worked out what the markets will be like when there are days where the slope chanes due to index staying same and time going. I also model the complete area over and under the slope ( kind of like OBV back in the day) to see if there is any correlation to the acceleration. I havent had time for this yet since I havent needed it yet. I'm constantly analysing my trade entries and exit against what the indices would project to and there are still improvements to be made.

I have ppl for this. Need to arrive at a slope/slope ROC.

 

[NCC1701]

Would love to see the test results. There is one other thing I need to point oujt. Since there's only 2 variables for the slope to change. The less meaningful being time. I haven't worked out what the markets will be like when there are days where the slope chanes due to index staying same and time going. I also model the complete area over and under the slope ( kind of like OBV back in the day) to see if there is any correlation to the acceleration. I havent had time for this yet since I havent needed it yet. I'm constantly analysing my trade entries and exit against what the indices would project to and there are still improvements to be made.

interesting, thank you guys for posting, i hate to do this stupid question but i gotta, what does sma stand for?

 

[destriero]

simple moving avg.

 

[1eyejackal]

I have ppl for this. Need to arrive at a slope/slope ROC.

Have them see if this makes any difference. this is the area ( in yellow outline) I am talking about, I'm using closing price only, but optimally using actual price vs volume might be bettter.

@NCC, never a dumb question with me. We all start somewhere.. SMA = simple moving average

 

[KCalhoun]

Hey Ken, Since you are th OP, I took some time this morning to see some of your posts and it seems you are way too biased short side?

Since it was your thread that instilled me to register and post my thoughts, (getting smoked/grilled/broiled in the process) I'll share a bit my thoughts and what has been working for me. One day this strategy may not work, but it should not hurt you much when it doesn't.

My bread and butter so far has been using the 1hr charts and its 50sma. Of course, I use more indicators, but too much to go into all of them and I don't have time like some of you. But if I were to teach this to my teenage daughters, it would be using just this.

The slope of the 50sma is a key component in my actions.
For example, if the slope is negative (-), and the futes break to the upside, there is a high probaility to revisit or even break back below soon again and the probability's time frame is within 3-4 bars = 3 to 4 hours. This is one of the best time to short... when it breaks below the 50sma while the slope is negative. The acceleration @ delta vs risk is huge for the short play during these setups! That's your edge!

The NQ mkt was in a transistion period Monday after close to Tues @ 12100.
I say transition because the slope of the 50sma went from - to flat +.

On Wed @3:30am, as everyone was so negative waiting for the world to crash the NQs were trading steady at 12100. The math says if it doesnt go below 12000, the slope will not go negative so a break back above the 50sma would mean emphatically risk on.

Go back and look at my post of when I bought the stocks in my equities account. I was waiting for a break below 12000 and would buy if it went back above, but it never did so I had to buy as it flirted with 12150 @ 19sma. my style never gets lowest or highest prices.

I was sure enough of myself (murphy's law and all) to make my very 1st post on here saying I am buying.

I called the ES 3919 because its 50sma was there and its slope was still negative, and projected to be negative for the time left even if es traded instantaneously traded above it for the remaining 3 or so hours.

When I sit down at the desk, my thought process is like this. I am trading against the smartest HFT teams, data scientists, physicists, and analytical minds of code breakers etc. That's a lot of complex math modeled into them. But, you don't need to beat all of them, doesn't work that way. You just need to be on the side of the ones who are making a difference in the time frame you are using. SO far the 50 on the hrly seems to show their behavior.

It's pseudo-randomness and organized chaos.

One other thing I have noticed is if you are on the correct side of the slope and the current trade is against you, you have a high probably to get out at smaller losses than if you are on the wrong side of the slope with your trade.

I traded all long Futures on friday, like 40 round trips or so. ( well except for 1 mistake short).
I was profitable on just about everyone of them... that's not me but more because I was on the right sode of the slope.

Anyway, don't discount what I have written like a lot of others did initially. It's working. I'll be the first to let you know when it doesnt.

Agree 100% re slope, best is long slow 45degree uptrend or 90degree spikes and reversals. Great topic


Mas are too slow for daytrading, or if you're experienced af your eyes know patterns so well, mas unnecessary

 

[1eyejackal]

Have them see if this makes any difference. this is the area ( in yellow outline) I am talking about, I'm using closing price only, but optimally using actual price vs volume might be bettter.

@NCC, never a dumb question with me. We all start somewhere.. SMA = simple moving average

Oh, another important aspect of shorting when the slope is neg for those that are math lazy, the stop (@ 50sma or near it) still gives us a higher probability to be profitable since the slope is going down!.

 

[KCalhoun]

Range is other key

 

[1eyejackal]

Range is other key

I'm unsure about range other than using Fibs on the 60 min (hrly) and daily @3 month intervals (futes and options exp timing sync.) But I never use those for intraday.

However depending on your stomach for risk, my own most profitable stategy intraday has been to NOT predefine the tgt but let the realtime action dictate the closing of the position. Usually candle stick making highs but closing below the breakout high this depends on underlying but for Nq's I'll say 5min works well coupled with 19sma.

I usally start scaling out. However often times it will fake the small range breakdown, so on the next breakout you have to get back in... there's also a major saying about the second mouse getting the cheese. More often than not, it's the second move that is the correct move and makes the biggest range.

When I have time, I'll scan for the patterns and post. Need to get back to family now.

 

[KCalhoun]

I'm unsure about range other than using Fibs on the 60 min (hrly) and daily @3 month intervals (futes and options exp timing sync.) But I never use those for intraday.

However depending on your stomach for risk, my own most profitable stategy intraday has been to NOT predefine the tgt but let the realtime action dictate the closing of the position. Usually candle stick making highs but closing below the breakout high this depends on underlying but for Nq's I'll say 5min works well coupled with 19sma.

I usally start scaling out. However often times it will fake the small range breakdown, so on the next breakout you have to get back in... there's also a major saying about the second mouse getting the cheese. More often than not, it's the second move that is the correct move and makes the biggest range.

When I have time, I'll scan for the patterns and post. Need to get back to family now.

True re 2nd move, you're observant

Ranges I use prior day total, plus orb height, depth of cups etc

 

[SunTrader]

...

My bread and butter so far has been using the 1hr charts and its 50sma..

I traded all long Futures on friday, like 40 round trips or so. ( well except for 1 mistake short).
I was profitable on just about everyone of them....

Curious was that just NQ and ES or other symbols as well?

Anyway why so many intraday trades if you are using MA slope on a one hour chart basis?