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FOMC on wednesday, should add some light. The world expects them to hold, but not the Bond market. If there is the slightest inclination in their summary statement of again raising rates. Watch how much open interest contracts. My charts say we start making new lows for this decline ... this...

Finally some selling. Thought they forget how to do it. Expecting a retest of SPX 1344 and then NEW HIGHS

Agree... Just a counter trend rally in an overall downtrend!

Seems all that open interest needs to be closed out eventually. Are the specs buying and the CB's hedging ???

Hi! Using your data I put together this chart. It seems Bond traders were doing fine until 2004, when the FED started jacking with short term rates. Then they started being fully long at tops and fully short at bottoms. Totally out of sync with the market. Hedge funds ??? Now with...

And Central banks hedging?

No, but according to TC ... we're on our way there.

And the Beige Book today, put the last nail in that 'rate reduction' coffin. New lows on the horizon ...

might be a BIG trade ...

Starting to look more and more like the top is in.

Slightly new high in the SPX ... 1354 possibly a small correction here and then a run into the 1380's

A very well thought out and comprehensive post...

Oh, disappointed. Thought you were putting on an explosion spread to the downside. Bonds have lost that loving feeling!

That's happened to me too, and I was already short! Guess there are a lot of Bond players out there that use the TLT as a hedge ???

Still tracking every turn, quite interesting!

Small correction here to about the 1320's, and then a run to the 1380's to finish off the advance.

So when is the final drawing McCurto for the lotto ticket. In a couple of months? Looks to me that Bonds are done.

Screwing around with the futures market? Nah they're too busy hitting on teenage girls! I like your lotto ticket Mcurto :)

The TOP looks in to me, but no one wants to step in front of the numbers tomorrow, unless they have a casino mentality. Which some do... But then again. Stocks look like they are ready to go lower. So a negative reaction to tomorrows numbers should coincide with a small correction in stocks.