Bond rally nearing an end?

Hearing above 140 and below 110 tomorrow will move us and be an event, anything else is a non-event, of course things are always dependent upon real money and mortgage flows in the long end. Around 110 seems to be the consensus of a few large hedge funds while economists are around 120.
 
The TOP looks in to me, but no one wants to step in front of the numbers tomorrow, unless they have a casino mentality. Which some do...

But then again. Stocks look like they are ready to go lower.
So a negative reaction to tomorrows numbers should coincide with a small correction in stocks.
 
No one is whispering 300,000 . . . . . highest I have heard is Morgan Stanley around 150,000. I think I might take out a lotto ticket tomorrow on the high side, possibly the Nov 107 puts in the 10yr options.
 
between now and the election, the screwy gov. statistics are likely to become a laugh............

the rise in the S&P despite Fed. hawk talk is a mysterious feature given this is October after all...and GDP is forecast to have a 1 handle in Q4

surely no one or thing is screwing around with S&P futures, I mean who would dare?
 
I don't trade options, but out of curiosity, I took a look at the 107 Nov 10 year put between 0700 and 0730 prior to the spike. I could have got 4/64. Right now, 0950 they are trading at 10/64.

Not bad at all, but so far not a lottery ticket.
 
2 to 1 payout enough for me. I was just looking for a one day play, if not I would have sold end of today for maybe 2 or 3 ticks. About 5000 4's traded I think, maybe a bit less.
 
I tried shorting some TLT but IB says "There is insufficient TLT available for short sale." Anybody know how often this happens? I know that shorting the big ETFs is normally quite easy.
 
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