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Oh, is that so? I would bet dinner that you have not graduated from an Ivy League school, especially with honors. Feel free to prove me wrong, privately or publicly - we can settle at a restaurant of your choice, or mine :)

I am not a fan of her politics (as you know, probably), but it's hard to deny that she is educated, intelligent and well spoken. PS. how did we go from Tankus to AOC? is it because they are both liberal?

I don't mean to sound dismissive, but you do not strike me as someone who has ever managed live risk in an institutional setting. There are/were several people like that here and, while I might disagree with them on occasion, it's usually pretty obvious that they have a clue.

Overall, Macro Musings is just great. If you are into bonds and Fed-watching, check out his interviews with Darell Duffie (about the treasury market/repo in March 2020) and with Peter Stella (recent one, about the FOMC balance sheet and his previous interview on Fed systems). There is also a lot...

For those who actually care about macro, there is a Macro Musings podcast with David Beckworth and him. He is extremely knowledgeable about the mechanics of the Fed and has very interesting insights. I first heard of his because he perfectly called the repo squeeze last fall. The fact that he is...

I only do subtraction and addition :) in an institutional setting, division is not required

I am not agreeing with anyone. It’s a complex issue that can’t be solved by a single policy tool. We definitely needed to lockdown the society early enough when we were not sure about the death rates, virulence or the exact bounds of the vulnerable population. Plus, we clearly were at risk of...

@hoffmanw, some of the stuff you quote turned out to be less scary (like multiple reinfections are specific to immuno-compromised), some is definitely true. However, as a pragmatic society, sooner or later we will decide that the societal cost is not worth the extra lives saved (especially...

Have you ever worked at any modern investment firm in a risk taking capacity?

Unless you are a computer and doing hundreds of trades a day (or even thousands), picking up 2bps a day after transaction costs is very hard. Granted, this is ET - everyone lives in Beverly Hill and dates Jessica Alba.

You do mean herd immunity, right? There is an immune response to the virus, it's just unclear how long it lasts or if these people are at risk after being re-exposed. Otherwise, we would not have so many asymptomatic cases where exposed people don’t get sick. Anyway, there is a Korean CDC study...

LOL, you think 50% ROC is something that can be taken for granted?

I think it’s pretty obvious (regardless of the press, which is clearly trying to manipulate the public opinion and contradicts the data) that people being hospitalized and dying are primarily from the vulnerable groups. That is elderly, people with co-morbidities or both. Here is the NYC data...

I am confused. Are you worried about the underlying settling between the strikes and not having enough capital? Or you're worried about an early assignment (which, all things considered, is great news for you)?

Sorry, where did you get that from? Herd immunity, conceptually, means that people that were exposed and are now immune can't contribute to transmission, as chains of infections are likely to get disrupted. As such, it only really depends on the fraction of the immune to the total population...

It comes down to statistical significance. If you have a statistically significant study (as opposed to run of the mill bullshit that comes up on CNBC), you should put on a position even if the market is selling off. If you keep doing it, you are going to make money over the long run.

Of course you don't know when your strategy is going to make or lose money. You're almost asking the right question. It's not about the win rate but rather about the positive expectation of the strategy. If your strategy goes into a lengthy drawdown or even into a flat period, you need to know...

Meh. People with seasonal jobs manage perfectly fine in other industries. Trading is no different, it's simply a matter of managing your cashflows to be consistent with your strategy.

First of all, all-around antifragility sounds very good in theory, but in real life you'd find that buying every tail to be completely protected is an unrealistic proposition. There are numerous scenarios possible and if you going to spend money and effort to protect yourself against it, you...

1. for sure, you should assume realistic returns of ~15-20%, so you need at least 500k to make a living. 2. it's not as hard if you are aiming for friends & family money, SEC regulations really start impacting you at 25 million or so 3. that's something that you have to build up and if OPM is...