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Oh yes, I agree with that. Of course they'll need to solve that problem. I was responding to this part: It just that that part isn't true. Europeans are, by and large, in favour of US sanctions against Russia, which align with their own sanctions against Russia. To say otherwise is false...

Yes really. This report is stale (June 2022) but it was the top search hit and I'm not going to waste time digging. I've seen similar numbers more recently and I've seen them from a variety of sources. I believe you're right that a difficult winter will shift the numbers a bit, but not like...

You're speculating too much. It doesn't seem to me that you spend much time in Europe. The last poll I read was ~80% of Europeans support sanctions against Russia. This is also in line with the conversations I have with Europeans.

You make it sound as if European countries didn't want to sanction Russia and aren't aligned with the US. What about the EU sanctions?

There are so many unanswered questions here. First of all, are you a Canadian citizen? If not, on what visa do you plan to spend greater than 6 months in Canada (legally)? There's a reason most foreign visitors can stay up to a *maximum* of 6 months and yet legal residency requires *more...

Searching for low/no risk greater than 4% isn't easy, depending on what counts as "low risk" of course! Knowing where you live, I know you can beat that with virtually zero risk with net metering. I know a farmer ~350 km away from you who installed a $50,000 solar array that saves him ~$3,500...

Okay, so for the sake of argument, let's say you pay $1 on 100 shares of SPY. There are 252 trading days in a year. You buy at the close and sell the following morning. That's 252 * 2 * 1 = 504 in commissions. You also have the bid/ask. For the sake of argument, let' say you cross half the...

This is a well known effect. The problem in trading it is the transaction costs. Those charts aren't including them. NightShares is well aware of this and they claim to be able to sufficiently minimize the transaction costs using swaps etc. It would be interesting to follow this and see how...

That's kind of you. I wish you good health and success, as well.

I agree with you mostly. However, I could be employed by one of those firms, but instead decided to go my own way. I am highly knowledgeable and capable -- but they are certainly better funded. They only reason I try some of these (crazy) strategies where I'll definitely lose to the better...

Anyone who subscribes to a cyclical pricing model. Such models suggest lows in this neighbourhood occurring some time in the range of 2022 Q3, Q4, 2023 Q1, Q2. Specifics depend on the exact model, of course. Maybe there are other big buyers, too, I don't know, and of course the price can go...

Yes, that was my experience with USDA. The releases were almost exactly to the millisecond (plus maybe 50-200 for transmission of data, time for my software to run, etc). At least in the case of the USDA, I suspect they have the report prepared and in their system, and then it is programmed to...

I built a program once to scrape USDA reports at the instant they were released (+~50-200 ms, I think) and then "read" the report electronically, perform some calculations and issue trade instructions. It all took less than a second. The profit was statistically significant, but not...

I don't trade based on these reports, but if the m/m of CPI matches the m/m of DPI and goes up 0.8% then the y/y will go to 8.8% vs ~8.3% now. (296.171 * 1.008)/274.310 = 1.088 I have no clue how predictive DPI is of CPI... but CPI is usually *higher* than DPI on average, so there's that...

Recently discussed here: https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/to-good-to-be-true.369983/

Where there any futures contracts traded on the CBOE S&P 100 Volatility Index (VXO) in the 1980s and/or 1990s? I've been searching various corners of the internet (including some historical data providers) but haven't been able to find anything definitive. My guess is that there weren't, but...

It depends where you live. In some countries, the third party is corrupt and unreliable... In some countries, the local currency is less stable than crypto and loses value quickly due to hyperinflation. Any two people with access to smartphones and some electricity can exchange crypto without...

Yes, I think you're right. I've tried it. It was okay, but the draw for me would be if it was exclusively for traders. I gave up on coworking and went back to my home office. Mostly nice people, but little in common. I'm in Canada much of the year and especially for the last few years...

I would love this!... I would probably work on my own 3-4 days per week and come in to the office 1-2. The main reason I'm on ET is because I get tired of working alone in my home office all day without any colleagues, although if I had to choose strictly between 5 days alone or 5 in an office...

Looking back at what I wrote, I don't think I expressed myself very well: the issue isn't so much the option expiring worthless as it is the option expiring worth less than what you paid for it! (You can cross out "leave the options worthless" and replace it with "leave your net position...