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For your sake, you better hope not. If I buy, it will never rise from the ashes. :D

Try what again? BTC has only been around a decade and yet it's already crashed harder and more often than the stock market has in a lifetime.

Why it might not be wise to put your entire life savings in BTC. :D Drawdown....BTC.............................Stock market 10%..............noise............................pullback 20%..............several times a year.......rare (considered bear market territory) 50%..............once a...

For BTC, an 80% drawdown is a normal occurrence. For the Nasdaq, 75% was exceptional. 2000-02 is the only time it's happened in its 50-year history. https://www.macrotrends.net/1320/nasdaq-historical-chart For BTC, a comparable statistical outlier might be a drop of 95% eg. $68k -> $4k

2002 onwards was good for gold. (It was early on in the 2000-2011 bull market) If you start in 1980, the numbers look very different. (1980-2000 was a savage bear market)

Then there will be others who are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the next 80% drawdown to back up the truck and hodl for 1000%+ gains. Well, it's always worked before...

You mean the cycle of "85% crash followed by 2000% moon" is not guaranteed? Damn, I was counting on that for my retirement. :D

What I meant was, if you include inflation, gold is worth less now than it was in 1980. It would need to hit $2,500 to take out the 1980 inflation-adjusted high.

The chart you posted looks a bit different if you include inflation. https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart Not sure what it means mind you. :D

As the saying goes, every dog has its day and gold may return with a bang one day. By the way, one of my favourite TV shows in recent years is: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aussie_Gold_Hunters If I lived down under, I'd definitely be tempted to try my hand at a bit of metal detecting in the...

Nobody wants gold. :D https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/hypothetical-dilemma.363497

You're not Faber or Roubini, are you? :D

I did think of including that but it varies so much, even in the same city. I'm sure there are places you can think of where you wouldn't want your money invested in real estate. :D

As an aside, a portfolio comprising a mix of cash, BTC, S&P500 and gold might not be a bad hedge in the current climate. I'm not sure how I'd individually weight them but probably not 25/25/25/25.

You've just inherited a life changing sum of money but there are a couple of catches. you can't access any of it until Jan 1 2030 by midnight on Dec 31 2021, you have to choose one of the above assets to hold it in for the entire 8-year duration

The concern I have with BTC is that it's still a very new asset class. Stocks have a long track record of preserving wealth. Even though there are ups and downs, there are hundreds of years of market data to kind of know what to expect in terms of bull markets, bear markets, drawdowns etc. If...

How much of their life savings could someone put in BTC and still sleep at night? Get the timing wrong and the $value of your savings could halve in a few months.

I don't consider it a ponzi but it might come under the "greater fool theory".

A Central Bank digital currency is still FIAT, so I wouldn't have thought this would be of much interest to the BTC crowd. It certainly wouldn't be of any use to speculators hoping to get rich quick. :D

Ponzi, mania, insanity, whatever. I'm just suffering from ROMO - regret of missing out. If only I'd had the balls to pull the trigger after the 2018/19 80% drawdown. Is it just me, or does it seem like these days the crazier an investment is, the better the return? Some of the stocks that have...