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You seem to be relying very heavily on the FED model being correct....

Kim could insist that the US also follows its part of the NPT (and that of the other weapon states) which includes to disarm. Trump will not agree to that..... could be interesting meeting

A few brief points because I have a beer to drink: - its not my system, but i suggested it as something to look at and think about. Especially as we have been in a long bull and buying fear has been rewarded. - vix is one of the things I look at to buy dip with ITM options upto one month out...

It just one of several things I look at when buying back into market when 'fear' starts to dissipate. Also you do not pay much for Option time value at that point. Of course figuring out if in bull or bear market is going to make world of difference. Send me a PM when you have done some Work!

May as well be looking for eternal life. In the meantime just keep it simple and buy when the VIX is falling below 20 after a spike. Sell when it gets below 10 or flattens out. Seriously. Back test it.

Yet again you give a good description of why new folks are crazy to get involved in day trading when you do not need to do anywhere near that amount of work for longer timescales. Takes many years to learn how to do very little.... decide which games you can win.

Now i use options now for swing trading indexes. Bit larger spread than futures but less cash at risk and also dont get whipsawed out of trade (dont need to watch as much if full time job). Can make unlimited profit profile if you want but yeah like most of this game all comes down to knowing...

So now we finally had a dip and bounce back how is it going?

Don't you think that if that headline happens it would only be a blip down and then rebound ? Is the prospect of anyone but Trump so bad.

I always thought it was simply that price movement (volatility) causes more standing orders to be hit (volume), and if large movements (normally down) you get panic selling plus margin calls which feeds back to more volume and more price movement.

For somethings like aviation fuel and plastics you still need oil as starting matetial but solar / electric cars now also act as price limits by reducing demand as price rises....and the Saudis know it. In 1970s / 80s there were no other alternatives. https://www.economist.com/node/2155717 And...

No they are trying to pump as much as they can and sell it whilst still demand. Stone age didn't end because they ran out of stones...... Brazil with deep sea oil and tar sand in Canada now act as upper price limit. As price rises these alternatives kick in.

Sure outside ISK is a pain in ass to list everytrade. Within ISK you can do options and mini futures which is pretty much all I need and beneficial with the tax rate so low at the moment. Who do you use in Sweden for CFD? Mostly I use Avanza with smaller amount at Nordnet.

I find it very easy if done within an ISK. You pay a tax of 30% of the state borrowing rate ( ca 1.5 % rate on long Swedish bond) on the total account value. http://www.investeringssparkonto.se In 2018 this works out at 0.45% of the total account value. After paying that you get to keep all...

When in the US I never feel it is any way more free than europe. Certainly there is more litigation which tends to hinder simple things. By the democratic process europe votes to have more social policies than US. Just a feature of the democracy that you go with the majority. I guess there are...

Seems that way. US came with conditions as well though.... free markets with tilt towards US companies.

We seem to be using a very different definition of 'socialism' so unable to have any more discussion.

And in the end most democracies vote for a mix of capitalism and socialism. Maybe because some things are best left to individual and others the society (defense and infrastructure everywhere? and in those "socialist" countries things like healthcare, education, pensions). If going badly...

Agree. Some bits of the middle East are great. If your born a UAE, kuwait, Bahrain citizen then it is like winning the birth lottery but even with oil there are others which seem a perpetual mess. Sure they have had outside interference by e.g firstly colonial powers are more recently US, but...

Yes but many Chinese I talk to would much rather have food on the table for family, more western consumer lifestyle etc than 'freedom' as we see it in the West. US in particular seem to have been marketed as 'land of free' and many assume it is valued is same way elsewhere. There are differing...