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Wooh, sold 157.5 on FDX, this is looking great. However I’m also short on MU @_@. Depending how the dust settles looks like they will be close to canceling each other out.

Hmm, bought ORCL a while ago since the vol was pretty cheap. But then the stock didn't really move much and vol never came in either. Had a moderate loss from the short theta. Since vol never came though; I just decided to hold through earnings since they seemed understated. Got a nice jump...

That's a lot of conviction for the fade here. Are you going to add deltas today or try stay this short?

This trade was never a losing trade the way I followed. It was two wins in a row. He bought shares and price increased. Avg cost was low 24x? Then at ~$250 he closed his long. He closed it by converting to a delta neutral short vol position instead of selling the shares. When he gained...

Another thread that reads just like the usual ones. The lack of receptivity can be seen almost a priori. You’ve gotten a block of very similar advice from a diverse group of posters but you aren’t ready to hear it. So what was the point of asking for advice? You perceived judgement; yet I...

Sounds way too vague to be successful long-term. What's your vol forecast and why? What is your reason for thinking spot will still be pathing around 2900 in a week's time? What are some hard metrics that will invalidate your thesis? Theta won't "make you a small profit" by Monday no matter...

We get threads like this frequently. Some commonalities: 1. Your strategy probably isn't as good as you think it is. It will decay and/or the risk profile isn't actually that attractive. That the only datapoint you have given us is avg $ profits / contract / day shows you are unfamiliar...

Yeah... I don't think the powers that be are remotely worried about a legion of burger flippers breaking free from the labor market if they could just make more than three trades a week. Not to be needlessly condescending but you've got a long way to go before you will be able to model reality...

I think CASY slipped in a div announcement that also had decent impact directly following earnings? The more confidence we have in a data set, the easier it is to brush aside variance and be able to size more optimally. At least we’re getting useful data after each trade concludes. The trick...

CASY blew out as well yesterday after being dead in the water past 5 earnings. Had that on in small size.

Yeah, I made about $1.2 per on THO--long LZB vol was most of today's PnL. Earnings still 1 week away but after two jumps now I think vol has adjusted a bit and there's less upside so I closed it. Eyeing PLAY since the stats look decent but I don't know if I'll get enough certainty to pull the...

Taking a stab @ short THO vol. Slogged through a bit of news and couldn't find anything too startling. Merger in recent past that seems to be well in hand. There was a nod to minor litigation but seems to be an on-going part of business; continuous small claims that don't materially impact...

How confident can we be with un-confirmed dates? First thought was vol might be understated to price in possibility of earnings ending up in the next expiration instead of 7/19.

Still wondering if it wouldn't hurt to grab some shares @ open while the options are still so wide to smooth out cases like this. ~60 / per fly at $232 would salvage almost 30% on the position if it did just flatten and start drifting above 240. I know they usually aren't this wild at the...

Filled @ 22.25. I thought we were going to have to eat a loss there for waiting. 933 had some trades printing at 32-33 but I didn't want to eat the spread. MTN was generous enough to come back down a decent bit thankfully.

Alright, that makes sense. So the bulge in IV is pretty much all jump/post earnings day and not a significant amount of vol is priced in for aftershocks. With you 100% on the absolute vol figures diminishing faster when they are contained in a shorter series; I was more so wondering if there’s...

Yeah, the 180/260 here as well. I’ve been calculating the earnings vol and then showing it diffused over 1/2/3 days especially for stock with monthly only as per a comment you made earlier. Knowing much much of the vol will bleed out and how fast is something I still need a feel for. Figure...

Averaging the sharpe distorts it beyond what it is intended to measure or convey. Regarding generalities though; I agree with you that there are more hidden tail risks once you move off the beaten path. And that there are a lot better ways to hold risk than a basic levered stock/bond. This...

Yeah, only by luck though lol. See edit above. This run has got to taper off soon it’s starting to get unsettling

MTN looks good so far--I'm in it as well. Interested to see how much vol comes out of the options though--only concern was if the Imp Mv / Jump was so high because a lot of the vol was priced in for the intraday move following earnings after how it behaved in Dec. Edit - Spoke too soon...