Earnings journal
- Thread starter TheBigShort
- Start date
Still wondering if it wouldn't hurt to grab some shares @ open while the options are still so wide to smooth out cases like this. ~60 / per fly at $232 would salvage almost 30% on the position if it did just flatten and start drifting above 240.
I know they usually aren't this wild at the open, and I think over the long run absorbing the variance is worth avoiding the certainty of edge loss on wide spreads, but maybe there's a happy medium.
I know they usually aren't this wild at the open, and I think over the long run absorbing the variance is worth avoiding the certainty of edge loss on wide spreads, but maybe there's a happy medium.
@oldmonk might be able to answer this one. He's pretty good with running back test regarding earnings events. Like you already mentioned. These massive spikes in the first 2 minutes are not that common. MTN wen't from 227 to 245 in 4 min! We got unlucky today. MTN is now sub $230.
On another note. Check out the MSFT Jul19 130/135 strangle for $6. It looks like cheap gamma going into earnings over a month away. I believe fair value is 8.40!
How confident can we be with un-confirmed dates? First thought was vol might be understated to price in possibility of earnings ending up in the next expiration instead of 7/19.
I'll send you a pm about this.
Taking a stab @ short THO vol. Slogged through a bit of news and couldn't find anything too startling. Merger in recent past that seems to be well in hand. There was a nod to minor litigation but seems to be an on-going part of business; continuous small claims that don't materially impact business. No looming debt balloons or major interest rate sensitivity.
We talked about getting fills on the back-end but what is your guys' modus for opening positions as the names get less liquid? I usually check the natural and the iron; spreads seem smaller on the iron at times I assume because the deep ITM wings are more scarce.
Any personal rules of thumb for how far to reach for fills until the edge loss to trade thesis starts getting too material?
We talked about getting fills on the back-end but what is your guys' modus for opening positions as the names get less liquid? I usually check the natural and the iron; spreads seem smaller on the iron at times I assume because the deep ITM wings are more scarce.
Any personal rules of thumb for how far to reach for fills until the edge loss to trade thesis starts getting too material?
Did this trade work out? It seems like the 55 straddle price was hovering around the $5 range all day. Looks like it's dow $1.50 from yesterday close
Yeah, I made about $1.2 per on THO--long LZB vol was most of today's PnL. Earnings still 1 week away but after two jumps now I think vol has adjusted a bit and there's less upside so I closed it.
Eyeing PLAY since the stats look decent but I don't know if I'll get enough certainty to pull the trigger in the next few hours. Poking around at a few news pieces and if I'm reading things right it seems like there is a bit of dispersion in the expectations which is a positive. Trend of understating guidance though so there could be an upset if they miss.
Some days if I feel a bit weary/melancholy for lack of a better term it's harder to get myself to be risk-on. Always go back and forth on how much I should let that affect my execution but it's tough to completely screen out of the decision-making process.