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  1. M

    Taleb fund and how it profited

    Has nothing to do with being impressed. You just need to get your facts straight.
  2. M

    Trading & the Zero Sum Game Debate

    Are you understanding that dividends come "out" of the stock and not from the magical dividend fairy? The Dividend "is" a transaction. It comes out of the retained earnings account of the given company and it reduces the market cap by the same amount. It's moving money from your left hand to...
  3. M

    Trading & the Zero Sum Game Debate

    Where are you getting 105 from? Person A gets $5 in dividends tomorrow and the stock price drops by the same amount. It's now a $95 stock. Your account equity drops by that amount. Your cash account goes up by 5. The net sum is ZERO! How are you getting this "extra" $5 for free...
  4. M

    Trading & the Zero Sum Game Debate

    It doesn't matter if the stock price is actually "reflecting" the discount. Overtime the discount is used for valuation purposes. Google DCF. It stands for dividend discount model. Getting a dividend has nothing to do with zero sum. I'm not sure what your background is but this is...
  5. M

    Trading & the Zero Sum Game Debate

    This is not true. A dividend simply distributes cash flow and comes out of the stock price. You are a dollar richer in dividend and a dollar poorer in equity. Stocks that don't pay dividends have to offer a discount equal to the dividend to compensate investors for the same future periodic...
  6. M

    The ACD Method

    Economic Theory! Ok, so I've talked at length on here about Prospect Theory and it's really fascinating because it very accurately describes human behavior and why we take risks. Just to review, I'll go over it again. The theory states: A randomly chosen person is offered two outcomes: 1)...
  7. M

    The ACD Method

    No. Let's take a look at the monthly chart just for some perspective here. On this chart that correction is barely recognizable. Looks like the uptrend is completely intact. The 2011 correction was really the last "noticeable" correction. My 2nd argument is the VIX. Last year's...
  8. M

    Taleb fund and how it profited

    This is not true. The fund was up huge in 2008, 2011 and this year. They had modest single digit losses 2012 to 2014. They actually sell a lot of premium. And they don't just trade tails in the index. They make money on large moves in rates, currencies, indies, metals, etc. And the...
  9. M

    The ACD Method

    What lies ahead..... This is not a prediction but rather an observation of current conditions and how they played out in the past. Bull markets end violently. The first major correction near the highs is usually NOT the top. It's just enough to shake out the marginal buyers and draw in...
  10. M

    The ACD Method

    Don't look now but the Russell is about to confirm on the 30 day to the upside! Monday or Tuesday.
  11. M

    The ACD Method

    For one, demand completely fell off the map in the PIGS countries and Germany's economy has weakened considerably. Lower currency prices can provide some support but overall demand is weaker. When you look at Bund yields they are showing that there is no chance in hell that Europe is going to...
  12. M

    The ACD Method

    Here you go guys: SPY/EEM
  13. M

    The ACD Method

    I would argue ACD works even better on less liquid and less "watched" stuff because you have less noise. The more liquid something is, generally the more noise you have to tolerate.
  14. M

    The ACD Method

    Yeah if you are just referring to the energy landscape and the broader indices as well. All the action right now is in currencies. The market is in chop mode right now with wider ranges. Don't let the vol deceive you. It's easy to see the large moves and mistake them for trends. What ACD...
  15. M

    The ACD Method

    You have high standards King. :)
  16. M

    The ACD Method

    One of his best trade ideas is being long US Equities/short emerging market equities or SPY/EEM.
  17. M

    The ACD Method

    Oil is a raw material that get's factored one way or another into almost every product and service. When your input costs go down, your price level goes down. Low oil prices can stimulate demand to some extant but that gets offset by lower overall demand for those goods. When you have a...
  18. M

    The ACD Method

    WTI will likely test that 50 level which is the monthly A up.
  19. M

    The ACD Method

    Monthly A up in the ES is 1972. Session high so far a tick shy of 1969.
  20. M

    The ACD Method

    For those of you who watched the above video from Raoul Pal, his explanation of the dollar and it's effect on global markets is worth a degree in Economics. I cannot stress how important it is to understand this stuff.
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