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Hey John... did you ever read rumours about what caused the huge dip today? I did see that customers at Coinbase had issues with buying, but some also saw that they had a zero balance. Its kind of scary to think that Coinbase is the custodian for all of these ETFs and yet they still have...

To be honest though, its kind of sad that a software company can't go to enough trouble to properly lock down their account. This has happened to many prominent accounts, so maybe there is a weakness given that multiple people probably have access to post under that one account, but its still...

I remember reading or watching not too long ago the argument that if a currency doesn't have a store of value component, then it will fail. People have to want to hold the currency in order for it to have any value. If the minute you receive a currency you want to get rid of it, then there is...

Absolutely, but I just meant that if he in any way began to warm up to bitcoin, it would be at direct odds to the rest of his portfolio. And by even talking about bitcoin, good or bad, its almost advertising. So the best way to snub bitcoin is to not even mention it.

If you embrace Bitcoin, you have to doubt the values of everything else. You can't be pro Bitcoin and pro banks. You can't be pro Bitcoin and think real estate will go up. If the financial system is broken and Bitcoin can fix it, then you have to distance yourself from the financial system...

As for selling, that is of course the game plan for many people. Even though we all understand that it is superior savings technology, the whole point of saving is so that you can enjoy the reward later. Some people want to leave some for their kids, and that's good too. But I imagine many of...

Just guessing here, but what you describe is interesting. If the bitcoin moves from individual to individual, its not all that apparent that it was actually sold. You would likely already need to be involved in some audit in order for them to figure this out. Of course if you bought a car...

I agree that you can also look at this as well, but this means that something funny is going on, or perhaps, most likely, net inflows from the ETFs didn't really make much of a difference for this first month. Price can't both go down with net inflows, and then go up with net inflows, unless...

To add to my post, all the buying of these ETFs I think happens via OTC desks, and not even exchanges. The price of bitcoin comes from the exchanges, but the OTC desks have to deliver. What happens when an ETF needs 10k bitcoins, but the OTC desk doesn't have that many left? How are the OTC...

I of course have to take what the price was right before the ETFs started trading. I understand that there was some seed money that apparently already bought some bitcoin, but on the very first day, if somehow 10B flowed in, you can damn well bet that they would have had to start buying...

I am actually looking at the high being about 48k before the ETFs started trading. And even on the first day when GBTC was selling, the GBTC+ETF inflows never went negative. So then we almost have to question how the price dropped 20% to 38k. Each day, more bitcoin was actually bought than...

I look at it completely differently. Price is set at the margins, so the locked away coins don't really do anything. Sure, they limit supply, but that just means fewer and fewer coins are needed to move price. I think of it like housing. A neighbourhood can have 200-500 homes, and yet, only...

I would like to illustrate what I am talking about. Here is a 1 tick chart... 1 tick for every trade. Notice the time scale. Its today, shortly after open, and this entire chart covers just 20 seconds. (click on it to blow it up) Suppose you want to go long at A. Its hard to say what kind...

I really think the full outcome of AI is collapse or depression. Everyone talks about an increase in productivity, which initially sounds great. Instead of a farmer producing food for his family, a farmer can now produce food for 10k people. This of course allowed farmers to do other things...

Agreed, but I was hoping that someone can chime in with their results as well. I certainly don't see how you can on one hand have a good win when it works, and at worst a BE exit when it doesn't work. Its like wishing you had put on a large size on trades that work, and wishing you put on...

I'm most worried about timing it right. I mean it could be anywhere from 100k-500k, and that is a huge range. Of course scaling out is one option, but then you're stuck with fiat not doing anything for you. And I also happen to think that there might be some surprised in how these cycles move...

Here is an incredible analysis of where price might go based on previous cycles and halvings.

How are you guys believing the stats of his algo? There is no way to have a 25% win rate if you have a BE exit unless the very next tick after entry goes in your favor and never comes back to you (which will not happen 25% of the time). If you have a BE exit, the exit always hits before the...

But every selloff is aggressively bought up. I made some notes on this chart since we hit -20% after the ETF launch. Nothing to me so far suggests any weakness. Every dip is being bought up, and there are no re-tests of previous breakout levels. Sure we are going sideways here at the...

I'm sure you follow Lyn Alden as well, so you probably saw this post, but just in case, here she states that a 6102 would be more difficult in this environment.