IS THIS PERFORMANCE REPORT BOGUS...

[NoahA]

How are you guys believing the stats of his algo? There is no way to have a 25% win rate if you have a BE exit unless the very next tick after entry goes in your favor and never comes back to you (which will not happen 25% of the time). If you have a BE exit, the exit always hits before the trade can really take off. If you give it even a couple of ticks of room, sometimes it keeps dropping without you getting your BE exit. By never letting it go against you, you will never have a winner.

These fills that VST shows are what I keep calling fantasy fills. You cannot always get a BE exit when it goes against you, and even when it goes in your favor, it likely takes you at at BE before it really gets going. None of what he shows is live trading and its only his stupid backtesting platform that allows him to have the exits that he has. Trust me... I sit there watching, praying, waiting for my Bid or Ask to be hit, and every time I'm praying because I can see the market turning, my order never hits. It only hits when it works against me (ie. I get my profit fill because it keeps going higher, but I never get my profit fill on the highest tick). The way he claims to show that he gets a fill every time its about to go against him is pure bullshit.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

How are you guys believing the stats of his algo?

Hello NoahA,

Are you going to gain or lose anything if you think the back test results are real or fake?

I believe the stats of his algo because :

1. The cost for me to believe his algo is $0.00 to me, free information.
2. The time for me to see the results took about 15 seconds here on ET website. I did not have do any work searching for a back test of an algo with a 25% win rate.
3. It is better then not believing in anything.
4. I rather just believe those back test test are real. At least something good to look at.
5. No harm and no foul to me if it is fake or real.

In other words, @NoahA there is nothing wrong with a lie as long as the lie does not cost you time and money. Sometimes lies make us feel and gives us motivation.

It is ok to play dumb, and be smart. No need to be smart all the time.

If you keep looking for truth and real in trading from other traders, you will never be a millionaire trader.

 

[hilmy83]

Hello NoahA,

Are you going to gain or lose anything if you think the back test results are real or fake?

I believe the stats of his algo because :

1. The cost for me to believe his algo is $0.00 to me, free information.
2. The time for me to see the results took about 15 seconds here on ET website. I did not have do any work searching for a back test of an algo with a 25% win rate.
3. It is better then not believing in anything.
4. I rather just believe those back test test are real. At least something good to look at.
5. No harm and no foul to me if it is fake or real.

In other words, @NoahA there is nothing wrong with a lie as long as the lie does not cost you time and money. Sometimes lies make us feel and gives us motivation.

It is ok to play dumb, and be smart. No need to be smart all the time.

If you keep looking for truth and real in trading from other traders, you will never be a millionaire trader.

I've pretty much adopted your mindset with forums. I see bulllshit here and there, but it's mentally exhausting to worry about that.

If people want to post fake results or real, who cares. Take what you want from it and move on.

If you get scammed, good. You'll learn next time. Let Baron deal with that.

If you're smart and didn't get scammed, good. You're not a moron after all.

Either way, nobody gives a shit about you or your money; except YOU.

Good trading to all

 

[NoahA]

I've pretty much adopted your mindset with forums. I see bulllshit here and there, but it's mentally exhausting to worry about that.

If people want to post fake results or real, who cares. Take what you want from it and move on.

If you get scammed, good. You'll learn next time. Let Baron deal with that.

If you're smart and didn't get scammed, good. You're not a moron after all.

Either way, nobody gives a shit about you or your money; except YOU.

Good trading to all

Agreed, but I was hoping that someone can chime in with their results as well. I certainly don't see how you can on one hand have a good win when it works, and at worst a BE exit when it doesn't work. Its like wishing you had put on a large size on trades that work, and wishing you put on small size on trades that stop out. You don't get to decide your size after you're in the trade!!! LOL... Likewise, you don't get a BE exit when it goes against you, and if you want a BE exit then rarely can you get a winner. Aye....

 

[NoahA]

I would like to illustrate what I am talking about. Here is a 1 tick chart... 1 tick for every trade. Notice the time scale. Its today, shortly after open, and this entire chart covers just 20 seconds. (click on it to blow it up)

Suppose you want to go long at A. Its hard to say what kind of order you needed to get filled here, but lets just suppose you get it. A few trades later, it dips down 1 tick. So if you are on the lower tick, how do you get your BE exit? What if it drops another tick lower, and then another tick. You now cannot have a 1 tick loss. The only way for the system to work is if you get in at B, that one tiny tick, after which it goes up a few ticks.

Now suppose you get filled at C. It jumps up to D for 1 tick, and now, you have to move your stop to BE because that is your exit. But as you can see, it drops down again to this level, so do you stop out? If you don't stop out, it can drop lower, and now you can't get your BE exit.

This is better illustrated in the final example. Suppose you're filled long at E. It jumps up 1 tick, and you think you are in the clean, but it drops down again. Do you exit? If you don't, its drops a tick lower. Now you can't get a BE exit. And then it drops lower, and lower. In only 3 seconds, it is 3 ticks lower than your entry.

So my point is that if you're always setting a BE exit as your stop, there is no way you can ever have a profit unless you magically get the entry at B for example. When it goes 1 tick lower than your entry, there is no certainty that it will jump back up to exit BE, and your loss is likely bigger.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

I've pretty much adopted your mindset with forums. I see bulllshit here and there, but it's mentally exhausting to worry about that.

If people want to post fake results or real, who cares. Take what you want from it and move on.

If you get scammed, good. You'll learn next time. Let Baron deal with that.

If you're smart and didn't get scammed, good. You're not a moron after all.

Either way, nobody gives a shit about you or your money; except YOU.

Good trading to all

Good Morning hilmy83,

Exactly! We are on the ET forum to trade trading ideas to make money. We should already assume the trading idea is a lie/theory, until forward traded. We should not be getting mad or upset or bitter if we do not like the other ET member trading idea/theory.

That is fun part about trading and trying to make money. Everyone has a good trading theory idea they are doing or want to do. Will it make consistent money? Have to try and see it.

Its all fun to me.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

I would like to illustrate what I am talking about. Here is a 1 tick chart... 1 tick for every trade. Notice the time scale. Its today, shortly after open, and this entire chart covers just 20 seconds. (click on it to blow it up)

Suppose you want to go long at A. Its hard to say what kind of order you needed to get filled here, but lets just suppose you get it. A few trades later, it dips down 1 tick. So if you are on the lower tick, how do you get your BE exit? What if it drops another tick lower, and then another tick. You now cannot have a 1 tick loss. The only way for the system to work is if you get in at B, that one tiny tick, after which it goes up a few ticks.

Now suppose you get filled at C. It jumps up to D for 1 tick, and now, you have to move your stop to BE because that is your exit. But as you can see, it drops down again to this level, so do you stop out? If you don't stop out, it can drop lower, and now you can't get your BE exit.

This is better illustrated in the final example. Suppose you're filled long at E. It jumps up 1 tick, and you think you are in the clean, but it drops down again. Do you exit? If you don't, its drops a tick lower. Now you can't get a BE exit. And then it drops lower, and lower. In only 3 seconds, it is 3 ticks lower than your entry.

View attachment 334477

So my point is that if you're always setting a BE exit as your stop, there is no way you can ever have a profit unless you magically get the entry at B for example. When it goes 1 tick lower than your entry, there is no certainty that it will jump back up to exit BE, and your loss is likely bigger.

Good Morning NoahA,

Good explanation you write. However, @VSTscalper clearly with nice and clean empirical historical performance proves your theocratical 1 example wrong.

@VSTscalper has done a fabulous research with 103 trades proving you are wrong.

You just show 1 example compared to his 103 trades showing he can enter at 1 tick, and then BE at 1 tick after 1 tick in profit.

Your opinion loss, @VSTscalper performance report wins.

@VSTscalper please kindly continue posting your back test. Thank you and VERY NICE WORK YOU DID.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/is-this-performance-report-bogus.378471/page-2#post-5931721

 

[MISSSNP]

comagnum,

Is this what you are talking about? This is actually my favorite setup. Very LOW - Winning Percentage - but great WinLossRatio (HighWLR). It is all about Controlling Risk.

In my early trading days - I would often watch a Profitable trade - go Negative. While I want to give Price a chance to Run - I would much rather take a BreakEven trade - than go Negative - if that makes sense.

Have a great day.

VSTscalper
View attachment 334462
View attachment 334464
View attachment 334465

IF YOU EXAMINE THE TRADES ON THE CHART, WHY WOULD YOU WANT TO SCALP EVERY BAR WHEN YOU CAN POSITION TRADE, LOOK AT THE SEQUENCE OF RED AND GREEN ENTRIES, CATCHES ALL THE SWINGS, NO NEED FOR SCALPING...

 

[VSTscalper]

IF YOU EXAMINE THE TRADES ON THE CHART, WHY WOULD YOU WANT TO SCALP EVERY BAR WHEN YOU CAN POSITION TRADE, LOOK AT THE SEQUENCE OF RED AND GREEN ENTRIES, CATCHES ALL THE SWINGS, NO NEED FOR SCALPING...

First - I got home just a little while ago - was at the Doctors office.

Second - I sent you a Zoom Room link a short time ago. The room is open right now.

By the looks of what you wrote above - large type - kind of a frustrating thing. If you want to come into the room - great - if not - great. Going to the Doctors is a hell of a lot more important to me.

 

[RStrauss]

i have an attached performance report for an undisclosed system. Can anyone please tell me what the flaw in the performance report is.. i.e. is the performance report flawed, based on the reported stats?

Avg. bars in trade is 0 which means it opens and closes a trade within a minute. i doubt the backtesting result is anywhere close to accurate and reflective of real world result unless you have super granular data down to tick level (which gives you a true historical view of how the price moves within a one-minute candle).