Nvda and law of large numbers
- Thread starter S2007S
- Start date
A friend sold DEC 680 Puts for 135.
He's very happy right now.
He's very happy right now.
During the cisco bubble the total US national debt was $5 Trillion, now they adding $5 Trillion every couple of years or less.
Dow 100,000 and NDX 50,000 is not long now, at this rate with NVDA to reach $10 Trilion market cap..
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Although there are similarities, I wouldn't directly compare what's happening now to what transpired in 2000. Back then, everything was TRULY NEW. Nobody really knew what the eff Internet was and how to monetize it. It was all friggin' speculation and hype because there was no metric or barometer to go by. Now, it's a different story. We know the full outcome of AI technology and how to use it to rake in loads of moolah.
I really think the full outcome of AI is collapse or depression. Everyone talks about an increase in productivity, which initially sounds great. Instead of a farmer producing food for his family, a farmer can now produce food for 10k people. This of course allowed farmers to do other things like build other products we all like to use, etc. But AI is the final step. When AI displaces a worker, that worker has nowhere else to go. A MacDonald's that is fully automated will allow those workers to do what... watch TV all day?
Now all of this is great if our economy was based on deflation where prices going down are good, but we don't have that (hint.. this is where bitcoin comes in). Our economy is based on always growing GDP. But soon there won't be anything for many people to do. If we don't find a way to redistribute the productivity gains that AI allows, essentially take the economic output from these companies and give it to the lower class, then its game over for society.
We can currently absorb 1% homeless and maybe 4% unemployment. Once the unemployed reach 7-8%, economy falls apart and goes into recession. AI will reach orders of magnitude higher numbers of unemployed. A 3 day work week sounds great, but we won't have equal distribution of productivity gains. AI will drive a stake between those who will benefit, and those who are left behind.
The only question is, will AI be smart enough to come up with a plan to prevent those negatively affected from revolting? There is no way to stop the progress of AI, but our economy needs to adjust to what this means, and we also need to socially and culturally adapt to know AI will transform work. None of these will come be the AI revolution, so the transition will be chaotic.
Sorry, man, but the damn wheel's already in motion. I'm afraid there ain't no stopping it now.
I think you're right to a larger extent though. As you already mentioned, if the AI eventually displaces human workers, you then have to ask who has the means to buy all those products that the AI produces. Nobody, since they're all laid off. And economically speaking, this would be a suicide not just for these companies that use AI but for the entire society.
That said, I don't think redistribution of wealth will fly, at least not here in the US. But, then again, when unemployment reaches 50% and there are open riots everywhere, shit can actually hit the fan before you can duck.
I've been warning about the impending recession elsewhere and this is what I'm afraid of. Big techs are already quietly laying off workers and you can safely assume this is the result of AI. It will only pick up pace from here on out. Once the recession kicks into high gear, it will get downright ugly IMO.