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Is anyone aware of what trigged the ES pop?

I want to be more bearish and believe its 2008 all over again but why haven't the Greek banks been destroyed yet?Its the worse place in the world right now and the banks have not suffered runs other than a gradual deposit outflow. I can't help but to see all of this panic as a short-term bottom...

I'd say there are a ton of differences between BSC/LEH and SocGen. For one they have full ECB support which the ibanks didn't had. Furthermore EUROTarp is already out there through the ESFS. Chance of SocGen failling is close to 0% as it gets

Swiss bankers seem to be considering a peg to the EUR. As far as I'm aware this is the only intervention that works, switching to a fixed exchange system and printing unlimited money to keep it there. I don't think they are really serious about this though, at least not until they give up the...

Whats funny is that if all Asian banks come out and said the story isn't true, the market wouldn't rally 1 tick. Its a one way market

My point is, if even a rating agency is seeing risk there(to the point of rating the broker A-), obviously there is risk there(No matter what they say), because if anything its likely the rating is too high

IB is a BBB rated company(If memory serves), the idea that uninsured money is safe there is simply not supported by the facts

Kinda of a weird dynamic since in theory it makes QE3 less likely. Guess the Fed will be reluctant to throw a big number out there and possibly unanchor iexpectations. They might have to buy $Xb USTs every 45 days with regular reviews or something

QE3 expectations now being priced in the markets. Some 2012 Fed futures are higher than 2011 contracts, same thing happened in QE2. Could be a cut in IOR but it seems to me that this is the after effect of the GS Hatzius piece rather than anything related to IOR

I agree with you. I'm talking a short-term bottom, final bottom who knows when it will come

Market tumbled on french downgrade rumor(Denied by all 3 agencies) and SocGen failure rumor(Denied by the bank and seems unlikely in any event). It smells like panic and bottoming type of activity

I suspected this glad to see you think this as well. Greece and greek banks are in worse shape than any other place and yet there is only gradual deposit outflow with no runs that I'm aware of

Will be tough for him to say good bye on another flip-flop, the new president might do for him

Time to bring back Kocherlakota historic speech http://www.rttnews.com/Content/AllEconomicNews.aspx?Node=B2&Id=1621301

I suspected the Fed would not raise rates with 8% handle on the UR, it looks like I was too conservative. Their 2013 forecast is for a central tendency of 7% to 7.5%(Lets call is 7.25% for mid year but thats the old forecast, the new one might be 7.5% for mid 2013) and inflation at target(both...

QE3 now is base case for GS http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldman-sachs-qe3-now-our-base-case

I missed most of the post Fed action. So apparently GS saved the day and popped ES by some 70 points?

Damn, 3 against just extending the extended, imagine for QE3

Most in the FOMC thinks the Fed should hike 1st then sell assets. Now the earliest they will sell has a deadline

I just closed my EUR/CHF short(Macro trade) and USD/CHF short(USD Hedge). I'm going to be surprised if they don't intervene in the next 24/48 hours. Still short EUR against JPY and USD