Global Macro Trading Journal

I am using the 2008 playbook looking at things unfolding; and apparently so is everyone else. Talk about recency bias.

So is this really 2008? Or 1998 (giant bear trap)? Or maybe none of these? Is it human nature (fallacy?) trying to find 1:1 reference points in history.
 
Quote from Butterball:

I'm net short risk assets across the board and the most worrying thing is that I am using the 2008 playbook looking at things unfolding; and apparently so is everyone else. Talk about recency bias.

So is this really 2008? Or 1998 (giant bear trap)? Or maybe none of these? Is it human nature trying to find reference points in history?
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Well a simple observation is that the European sovereign debt crisis has not been resolved. Until it is, the entire European banking system is suspect.
 
Whats funny is that if all Asian banks come out and said the story isn't true, the market wouldn't rally 1 tick. Its a one way market
 
Quote from Daal:

Whats funny is that if all Asian banks come out and said the story isn't true, the market wouldn't rally 1 tick. Its a one way market
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true, in this kind of market, rumors become reality.
 
Swiss bankers seem to be considering a peg to the EUR. As far as I'm aware this is the only intervention that works, switching to a fixed exchange system and printing unlimited money to keep it there. I don't think they are really serious about this though, at least not until they give up the idea of price stability. I can't see how choosing an artificial level for their exchange rate goes with price stability
 
Quote from Daal:

Is anyone aware of what trigged the ES pop?
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Europe to ban short selling. Good for 3% move in Stoxx 50. WOuldn't surprise me to see Europe up 5% today.
 
I don't know, there is some mouth piece from the ECB saying they might rethink the policy of 'raising rates until we are in the stone age'
 
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