Recent content by gspaulsson

Oil prices have been dropping. Some Saudi bigwig said he thought oil should be at $60-70, and M&A having dried up there is really nothing holding the loonie up any more. I think what we've seen lately is momentum + speculative overreaction to the subprime mess and the Fed inching rates down...

I'm currently long AUDUSD, target .9500. Won't touch USDCAD until some negative economic data start coming in and there's a sustained drop in oil prices - I figure that won't happen till we get to .90. maybe even .85. AUD is resource-based, like CAD, but is much more interest-rate driven - the...

To Ivanovich: I stopped trading USDCAD in February, when it stopped following my model. Now just watching with interest and trying to figure it out. It is axiomatic that every trend will end eventually. I'm now thinking this one may have another 300 pips to go, but I'm watching the...

I still maintain that the high loonie carries the seeds of its own destruction. First it plus the credit squeeze have totally choked off M&A, which was one of the big things that pushed it up. Second, oil is coming off the $84 peak, and in loonies has dropped from $84+ to $79. It had to have...

In May 2006 I figured Bush's double-deficit policy would lead to par sooner or later ... it looked to me like maybe early 2008. Then I changed my mind and decided that 13 straight interest-rate hikes had turned USDCAD around and that it would get to 1.17 by the end of the year. I was right on...

So let's see now. People weren't sure whether the Fed was going to drop rates by .25 or .50. They dropped them by .50 and dropped the discount rate by .50 as well. Predictably, USD went down against everything in sight - except JPY, which zoomed to a 1-week high. USDJPY being driven by...

No duties on goods imported from US (unless they came into the US from a non-NAFTA country). You have to pay GST/PST coming back in, but you do anyway. On the other hand, with the price of gas being what it is, that's a disincentive, plus the time factor unless you live in Windsor or Fort Erie...

I don't know, man - I lead a simple life. USDJPY carry trade is definitely back on, expect 121 in a few weeks. I have a lot ridinfg on that. USDCAD should be recovering, with the credit crunch killing M&A, oil down and Canadian manufacturing figures off, but it will recover at 4 pips a day...

Have reversed field on USDJPY, now think it's heading towards PPP, which according to the Economist is around 109. Reasons: BoJ is under new management, their economy is stumbling because of lack of liquidity. Low interest rates were supposed to increase liquidity, but the carry trade has...

I don't do CADJPY. However, I've lost a bit by jumping on USDJPY too soon. Expect to gain it back however - loaded up at 116.71 which looks pretty close to 1-year support and now riding the waves as it sorts out its confusion. Will be back in the black when it gets to 118.35 or so, could be...

Dunno. USDJPY carry trade is picking up, whereas USDCAD seems to be stuck in a holding pattern between 0350 and 0700, currently in mid-channel. Slowdown in M&A because of the fallout from subprime should take away some of the upward pressure on CAD, and oil is starting to drop again ... on the...

A correlation is just a correlation. It doesn't imply a causal link or that it will continue in the future. I have a spreadsheet model for USDCAD based on oil prices and interest rates that correlated beautfully over 14 years of data and correctly predicted last year's move from 1.09 to 1.17 -...

Sounds like a variation on Bollinger bands ... how many days do you go back? Meanwhile, I offer you GSP's Law: if you read about a trend in the Globe & Mail, it's already over. Today there's an article about the strong yen and the weak dollar ... means the carry trade has pretty much finished...

kalz, what tools are u using?

I agree with most of that excepte USD/CAD Sell. I am staying out of USD/CAD until it gets back down to the 1.03 range, and then I'm buying for the long hold. Right now I'm in USD/JPY at 117.98, waiting for others to reach favourable entry points. Suspect I've missed the boat with EURUSD. IB...