Have reversed field on USDJPY, now think it's heading towards PPP, which according to the Economist is around 109. Reasons: BoJ is under new management, their economy is stumbling because of lack of liquidity. Low interest rates were supposed to increase liquidity, but the carry trade has siphoned it all off, so BoJ has decided to hit it on the head by selling off some of its $900bln in foreign reserves. They should really raise rates, too - theirs is only 0.4% above inflation, where most other big economies run at around 1.5%-2%. At the same time with US inflation down and the economy heading for recession, the Fed will be dropping rates Real Soon Now. BoJ is really pulling off a short squeeze: once they have forex rates down where they want them, they'll slowly start buying back in. But the carry trade may definitely be dead, or at least in hibernation for a long time.
BoC dumped a bunch of loonies into the market yesterday, causing the loonie to drop, but I notice it has already backed off from 1.09 and is back in the 1.07 range. I don't think we'll see 1.04 again, but it's too soon for USDCAD to make the big recovery
move. Maybe in October. Then I think it'll get up to 1.13 or so by the end of the year, depending on oil and how the US economy is doing. Canadian mfg figures are off, that's why we're off 1.04. Also oil failed to hit records and is back in the low 70s - when it drops another $5-$10 you'll see USDCAD roar. The credit crunch is spooking M&A, and when it hits consumer credit you could well see a US recession - and that will light a fire under USDCAD.
GBPCHF is heading south, I think back to its 14-year mean of around 2.27. That was another pair that was driven by carry trade. Lots of good-looking prices around - EURUSD, GBPUSD,
especially AUDJPY at under $90 and AUDUSD under .79 - we haven't seen prices like that for a while. But I think we are in the middle of a major international currency realignment and who knows what is going to happen. Once central banks start splashing trillions around, we are pawns in their hands. I think the best strategy right now is not to make the long-term plays, but to channel-trade and scalp a few pips here and there, while waiting for some sanity to return.