Recent content by Epicurus

Earning an income outside of trading whilst he learns is essential. Start as a medium term investor as its easier to earn something from the market. Study and papertrade after hours until he can prove he has a capacity to earn from trading, when he could go part-time. Very few will be able to...

Hi Hillcrest. ASX options and brokers servicing them used to be so poor for Australian retailers I thought I must have been the only one trading them. The ASX moved to improve the contract terms, liquidity and market making about 5 -7 years ago and now actively promotes them. In response a new...

Your perception on this is generally correct. You can't just find some pattern or anomaly in markets and just consistently exploit it, as you need to assume everyone else can and will. You need to accept this premise and then think about situations and techniques that might work in spite of...

"...without the help of computers". Go back and read my posts again. You have my view, up to you. You should post again here down the track once you have tested the value of your proposed approach.

I just had a look at your video. I didn't spend enough time to try and figure out what rules he was applying to determine his turning points. Nevertheless, I wouldn't complicate your mimicking this approach with "mathematics", you could basically just draw those channels on the chart. What you...

To clarify, I call Technical Indicators stuff you normally calculate with a computer, like MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands etc. Versus Classical charting techniques which are those you can see graphically and hand draw on a chart: Trends, Trend Lines, Price levels, EW, pattern analysis, time analysis...

Two flawed assumptions in your post: - that Technical Indicators have any value at all - that looking at daily charts is the best basis for your analysis. You won't understand that at this point and will do what you are going to do. But after enough work has been done in the months and years to...

Money in a trading account is money at risk. As far as I'm concerned, I haven't made any money unless I withdraw it. The idea of leaving money to compound on future trades has a big underlying assumption that you are long term consistently profitable. I doubt many could be sure of that...

Optack, whats wrong with a coin flip with 65% win rate? I think you need to reflect on your numbers a bit more. Firstly, you have the stock at 202.7. If you write a 203.00C/203.50C credit spread then at expiry you get 100% of the premium you received (less brokerage). Why close early? The stock...

Time frame is what your analysis tells you is required to support your target win rate. I trade Bull Put/Bear Call credit spreads on 4 to 7 wk duration. Depends on how close to or even in the money you set the written leg, you can get between 50% to 100% return on capital per trade. I'm testing...

Use Bull Put/Bear Call credit spreads. I'm papertrading this atm to optimise strike selection. Just comes down to whether you can genuinely pick a binary outcome 65% of the time.

You dont have an extraordinary system. You need to examine and improve your trading plan. What you have sounds like it both relies on human discretion but is not robust enough for human decision factors and normal errors. Telling someone to have better discipline is the same as dieting for a...

Blue, I'm with Windlesham on this one. There's a difference between theory and practice. The textbooks say a synthetic put is created by a covered call, which is what I assume you are reffering to. But a covered call is equivlent to a cash-covered short put. Not a naked put where the amatuer...

I was doing some testing on vertical credit spreads earlier this year. Typically 6wks to expiry, selling nearest strike to the money then buying next strike away. Correct trades gave me around 50-60% return. On a loss, what I really liked about them was that they seemed to hold their value for...

Codestar. No you can't. If you try you will lose. I curently have mid-6 figures invested in penny stocks under 10cents. But I'm invested in the Australian market (ASX) which is full of them. Market caps are possibly different to the US at this price, but price action I expect is the same. The...