Recent content by CH1973

  1. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Daal I believe EUR Puts are the best trades if you want to bet in a extreme scenario where either Le Pen or Melenchon wins the election of if they both goes to the 2nd round. I bought some EUR Put for June, 0.95 strike. If any of these outcomes happened, EUR should go under parity and this Puts...
  2. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Daal, don´t forget US can also print money to pay their debt. I cant see any safe heaven other than physical gold or tangible assets if you are concerned about a fiscal crisis US.
  3. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    A positive risk management note in this subject is the fact that, this summer, Berkshire pilled up their biggest mountain of cash. In theory they should have a lower Beta compared to the SP if equities continue to moves higher, but will be able to benefit significantly in any sell off...
  4. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Daal they issue to open the market for corporate and banks that will need to tap the market or to roll debt that is maturing or need new cash.
  5. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Bought Citi Call Strike 50 for Jan/2017 @ 1.40. Citi price felt more than 20% this month and earnings werent that bad to justify this move. Stock is trading below 70% Tangible Book Value and almost @60% Book Value. Considering the tennor and the delta, carry in this option is almost zero. This...
  6. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I guess they are praying for Yellen....
  7. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I guess the most important question is if the China Govt can stop the slump in China´s mrkt. Considering the social impact in China with this drop I bet the Chinese Govt will try everything they can to stop this movement.
  8. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Nice Call
  9. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Cant disagree with you, rates are much more rational than equities, this is why I like to use options in this bets
  10. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Daal a good risk/reward bet for a hawkish FOMC is a 2000 SPX Put for this friday. I bought today at $1.60 and if you are right and FOMC surprises the mrkt I believe SPX will take a big hit... Just to add to the picture, take a look at...
  11. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Daal where are you able to buy Ackman's fund?
  12. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I am out too, glad that I tried this one using puts instead of selling the Futures...
  13. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    SPX looks like moving down toward 1950... Bought some short term MiniES puts...
  14. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    In this case its not only the size of the position that matters but also how far is your stop price, isn't it? Do you define 1st the stop price and the calibrate your position size or the opposite?
  15. CH1973

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Daal I could not agree more with u.
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