These lags make it tough to catch the bounce. If you remember back in the October rally, in the NFP day, the market took a beating right after the NFP number, it tanked for like 1 hour pre-market. Then it tanked and stayed in a range for another hour after the open. Then after 2 hours of this nonsense, it proceeded to rally for the rest of the day and then for weeks. Anyone using the initial market reaction to determine their bias would have gotten the wrong signal
Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
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Definitely a loss of follow thru. Could be OpEx related but if this was a V bottom like those since summer of '11 we should have seen 1900 SPX by now. This is concerning, and leads me to believe we would see sub 1800 soon enough. I'll be looking to establish a long TLT position. Good luck to all.
Markets acted with a huge lag. I guess the mistake that I did was not going into oil directly. I really thought it would go and push equities higher. It did but stocks struggled a lot more than CL or USO. Also, I trusted the oil move more so I could have perhaps stayed overnight and caught this
Bought Citi Call Strike 50 for Jan/2017 @ 1.40.
Citi price felt more than 20% this month and earnings werent that bad to justify this move. Stock is trading below 70% Tangible Book Value and almost @60% Book Value. Considering the tennor and the delta, carry in this option is almost zero. This is a pure delta play with an excelent risk/reward.
Citi price felt more than 20% this month and earnings werent that bad to justify this move. Stock is trading below 70% Tangible Book Value and almost @60% Book Value. Considering the tennor and the delta, carry in this option is almost zero. This is a pure delta play with an excelent risk/reward.
30% might seem a lot in 'just one stock' but I view BRKB more like a mutual fund. They have over 110 companies (between stocks and privately held business). And these companies are the ones with the best track records in the US, so they are far more resilient to bad times.
According to some calcs here, BRKB has a PE of 11 (adding income from private companies and earnings from stocks Buffett holds, even if not distributed as dividends). That's a 9% earnings yield. And that yield grows with nominal GDP. I plan to sell when there is a Buffett hype euphoria in the future and the stock is closer to the estimates of intrinsic value from Tilson and other buffettologists
According to some calcs here, BRKB has a PE of 11 (adding income from private companies and earnings from stocks Buffett holds, even if not distributed as dividends). That's a 9% earnings yield. And that yield grows with nominal GDP. I plan to sell when there is a Buffett hype euphoria in the future and the stock is closer to the estimates of intrinsic value from Tilson and other buffettologists
Yes, 30% is perhaps a lot- but I expect you are willing to hold it lower and longer as needed- I have a friend that also owns and trades some smaller amounts of BRKB-so it has been of interest for a while-
I agree with your logic that BRKB is similar to a select mutual fund-and likely owns some of the best "Values" in American business- BRKB has been selling off for the past 1 yr, and is down 2:1 compared to SPY. -17 compared to -9 %- I have considered BRKB as the " Canary in the coal mine" -for the US economy as a whole, signaling the larger underlying weakness- that is not as evident in the large caps or major indexes.
I caught a comment today from one of the market bears that makes sense and is perhaps apropos for the performance of BRKB- He pointed out that many of the average small & mid cap stocks are already well into bear territory- well below the large caps- I wonder what the average is for all stocks when not averaged by cap weighted?
I am personally not quite convinced that there is any "safety" in really bad times-Everything gets sold off- perhaps just a better value and a better early recovery .The longer chart would seem to show this in periods of decline, everything seems to flow with the tide.
2 price performance charts - Dec 2008/SpY- and the past 14 months.
(I also failed to get back in the market in 2009,10,11) - and certainly missed out on a good value- thinking a deeper shoe would drop- I failed to give the Fed their due- but learning slowly that all is not what it seems it should be.