Now is a time to go outright short November.
95.53. Time to go in heavy.
95.53. Time to go in heavy.
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zq (fed funds) spreads
- Thread starter scriabinop23
- Start date
I'm not buying this rate cut, but the pain I'm taking on my short ZQ isn't exactly thrilling. Best of luck.
Futher to this -- I'm not so sure there. Taylor rule on forecastQuote from scriabinop23:
I wonder what dynamics are making people bet fed funds even have a chance of getting to 50bp.
core inflation and forecast gdp (vs TTM inflation and gdp) gives
a rate of around 4%.
I still don't see more than a 25 bp cut though.
Quote from Kevin Schmit:
Futher to this -- I'm not so sure there. Taylor rule on forecast
core inflation and forecast gdp (vs TTM inflation and gdp) gives
a rate of around 4%.
I still don't see more than a 25 bp cut though.
I can only imagine this is being entirely driven by the credit market. The bid for mortgagebacks has dropped again, as well as high yield spreads widened the past 2 weeks.
The market must perceive that the FOMC will continue to bail out the credit market.
But just remember: the first time they cut, oil was in the high 60s and the jobs # was horrid. And the dollar index... well, that goes without saying.
We shall see. I'd be a lot more nervous to take this position if equity markets were testing 1370 right now, though.
OK guys. I am bailing now on my short November at 94.460 in after hours for a slight profit.
I'm not quite comfortable short thru the meeting when i have a cover opportunity here. For some reason I see this going back to at least 94.5 before the meeting.
I stand by my fundamental arguments ... but perhaps I see better risk/reward in other places, considering the fed funds have held at 94.5 and above for a few days. There seems to be a lot of big $$$ conviction against me.
Like one of you guys said, admit when you might be wrong.
I'm not quite comfortable short thru the meeting when i have a cover opportunity here. For some reason I see this going back to at least 94.5 before the meeting.
I stand by my fundamental arguments ... but perhaps I see better risk/reward in other places, considering the fed funds have held at 94.5 and above for a few days. There seems to be a lot of big $$$ conviction against me.
Like one of you guys said, admit when you might be wrong.
Ha! Covered myself tonight at 94.455 for a modest profit.. Didn't want to hold through the announcement either. Any idea why we dropped quite a bit in the overnight sesion?
Glad it worked out.
Glad it worked out.
Ok, you got me into the trade, I'll follow you out of it.Quote from scriabinop23:
OK guys. I am bailing now on my short November at 94.460 in after hours for a slight profit.
Trying to work my way out at the bid now.
I've got a fairly decent profit in it, mostly because I doubled my position near the high.
Thanks for the ZQ trade, keep them coming!