Zacks Backtesting Yields Over %50

M

misterno

I have been using Zacks research Wizard and I pay close to 2K for this service. (backtesting goes back to 1999) I just started like a year ago and after several months of playing around with it, I managed to create screens that yields over 40-50%. Of course this is a compounded return thus may not be accurate in real life. (buying monday and selling friday ONLY 1 STOCK)

50% seems illogical to me, I mean c'omoon it can not be this easy. I would like to hear what other users are saying. Anyone using research wizard here? Also, if I can create screens that yields over %50, how come the creator of the program Kevin Matras mentions screens for 50% all the time. I mean with all those years of experience, he should know better. Don't you think so?

What am I missing here? I want to share ideas with people using Research Wizard. Let's share ideas and strategies here.
 
It's easy to find strategies that make 50% over 7 years. It's much harder to have any faith they'll continue to behave like that.

Questions you should ask yourself:

1) Does your strategy work on other stocks?

2) Does your strategy produce the same results in each of the 7 years or does it make 100% in 2001 and piss it away the other 6 years?
 
During the bear market of 2000, drawdown was close to 50%. however, after that it did not go below 25%. Are you using research wizard? What are your returns?
 
Quote from CommunistMonkey:

It's easy to find strategies that make 50% over 7 years. It's much harder to have any faith they'll continue to behave like that.

Questions you should ask yourself:

1) Does your strategy work on other stocks?

2) Does your strategy produce the same results in each of the 7 years or does it make 100% in 2001 and piss it away the other 6 years?
More...

My trailing 12 month return varied between 95% and 5%.
 
I've used Zachs wizard before but not now.

Like the other poster mentioned typically on high return screens (not just Zachs) I've found they will have one or two years that did extremely well and then others that were weak.

I've forgotten what statistics Zachs has but you need some portfolio statistics like alpha, sharpes, etc. to really get an idea.

Then before committing cash track it real time for a while.

Sometimes the screen will just happen to pick up on a sector or style that does well for a while then tanks after that sector goes out of fashion. Or when the entire market tanks.

Good luck.
 
Well I did not notice an industry pickup it seems to be independent from that.

I am very happy with my returns and I would like to talk to other users. Anybody out there using ZACKS RESEARCH WIZARD?

Let's share some ideas...
 
Research Wizard is primarily a screening tool with a limited backtesting component. Request of trial of the Zacks Trade Strategy Evaluator (TSE). This is a much more robust backtesting tool.
 
covered call

Zacks Trade Strategy Evaluator is for institutional investors and probably cost 15K /year. I am sure it is better but I can not pay that much

Do you manage a hedge fund?
 
50% returns with a one time drawdown of 50% is pretty bad. Nobody in their right mind would allocate real money to it. And you are working with a single stock/instrument, so that makes your results even more worthless. You need to apply your system to a wide portfolio (at least 20 - 30 stocks), then you can START to validate your system.
 
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