Yukoner's 2015 Psychological Journal

[KDASFTG]

Greetings All,

Ian Asked: When is it time to trade the June contract on the CL? Noticed some "old" traders here who could help me.Thanks! Ian

Ian, go to the CME Website below. Once there "click on" the "Volume" and then review and compare each contract of interest. Then "click on" the "Calendar" to see the rollover date.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude_contract_specifications.html

Hope that helps.

KDASFTG

 

[Handle123]

Handle, I hear you.... somedays I feel like I should just turn on the computer and simply try to make money. Just trade... take the 8 or 10 or 16 ticks and get out before it comes back. BUT I just don't know if that is an acceptable way to trade, and for now I have to try to stay disciplined on this plan. My stats will be all over the place, as over the last 6 months I have been just trying to work on myself to be better at executing the plan.

Lately though, I have been really considering starting my day off trading for smaller target, until I can get a cushion built up. Then start to trade for larger moves, or whatever the market will give me.

I have known so many in my time do things that never make sense to me. Yuk, best trades are usually in first 30 minutes of trading day in most markets, so you getting consistent ten point winners, then after you cushion built you are going into much tougher trading and most likely will blow what you have made. Try shooting for smaller targets for a week, entire time you trade then second week trade two lots, take profit on one of smaller target and let second one go for 30, but continually think the risk to reward, if up 25 ticks, you can't be risking entire amount to get another 5 ticks. I know right now Crude swing is 90-95 ticks and can expect reversals most times, so me getting in mid swing, I can't get 50 ticks on runner, so I keep mental note how much I possible can get.

Back for more tests to hospital for me, calling it a day.

 

[IanMacQuaide]

Thanks Moonmist. Noticed the Vol. difference last night. Of course on days like today, best thing for me is to just sit on my hands till WAY after the news release at 10:30 EST.

 

[monoid]

Just trade... take the 8 or 10 or 16 ticks and get out before it comes back. BUT I just don't know if that is an acceptable way to trade. [emphasis added]

My stats will be all over the place, as over the last 6 months I have been just trying to work on myself to be better at executing the plan. [emphasis added]

Lately though, I have been really considering starting my day off trading for smaller target, until I can get a cushion built up. Then start to trade for larger moves, or whatever the market will give me.

Y:

When I first started posting in this thread, I asked you if you had a well defined trading plan. I asked that question not in a whim but based on the results of your daily PnL you posted. You assured me that you did; and, given this is a journal on psychology, I did not challenge you.

A manual, systematic trader (which you aspire to become) needs a well-defined trading plan and a mind-set to execute that plan. They are not mutually exclusive; and, they are equally important: no one is more important than the other. In my opinion, you lacked both. You identified the need to better you mind-set, and from what I see you have been very successful in that journey. This journey is far from over; nevertheless, your strides in this area have been impressive. I still owe you the post detailing the last step in the process [a process to better one's mind-set] I laid out, which I will do in due course.

The more pressing issue now, I believe, is your trading plan. Actually, your understanding of price action that is reflected in your trading plan. As I have said elsewhere, for a technical trader, a trading plan should be anchored by her solid understanding of price action. Anything less makes the trading plan almost useless.

Ask yourself the following questions:

(a) Assuming you entered a trade, and have a predetermined profit target level. Can you tell, based on price action (not based on emotions, but based on your analysis of prior price action for similar pattern instances), if the probability of price reaching your profit target is lower/higher than the probability of price not reaching the target?;
(b) Is your planned entry occurring at the lowest possible risk? Note: I said 'planned' entry, not necessarily 'actual' entry;
(c) After entry, even if the price moves in your intended direction, can you tell if the movement has convection or not? (once again, based on your analysis of prior price action for similar pattern instances);
(d) If your profit target is based on changes to market conditions, can you, based on price action, immediately detect those changes? (based on your analysis of prior .....);
(e) Is your methodology for determining anwers to (a)-(d) objective? Definition of objective: Give your methodology to different people and everyone comes up with the same answer.​

None of the above questions imply determinism in markets, but provides clarity for application of probabilistic thinking (and methods of statistics should you choose to).

If you answered 'no' to any of these questions, you lack a thorough understanding of price action, and your trading plan can only be half baked. My guess is: you will answer 'no' to all of these questions. You have a set of mechanical entry tactics, but your understanding of price action is lacking. In my opinion, a trader with a solid understanding of price action would not make the statements I quoted above. I could be completely wrong, and you alone know the right answer.

In other words, lets not forget that the edge for a systematic trader is a statistical edge; and, that edge can only be developed based on one's understanding of price action.

Since this is a psychology journal, I will stop here.

All the best.

Regards,
Monoid.

PS: Just to be complete. According to me, a primary difference between a discretionary trader and a systematic trader is that a discretionary trader relys on intuition to trade but a systematic trader relys on a trading plan to trade.

 

[Yukoner]

UDay #3 - Slept well, and woke up ready for the day. (Incredibly busy day, and only just now able to write... and haven't read any posts yet) Went through my routine and then considered the day that was unfolding before me.

Something that has been bugging me this week, is that I think due to combine rules I may need to consider adjusting my methodology to starting the day off with going for smaller profit targets until there is a bit of a buffer built up. Thinking like base hits. The challenge I am finding, is I can put on two or three trades exactly like they should be done, and they don't work and suddenly I am super close to my daily loss limit of $400. (self imposed that is) Now there just isn't the room to take another trade without going over.
Anyhow, it is something I am really need to take a look at, and soon.

Today my trading went well at the beginning of the day, but unfortunately had some abnormal distractions early on in the day. One of them was an urgent phone call just after EIA, so I closed out a winning trade early, and then dealt with that phone call issue. I didn't trade till that was resolved. Then it turns out my son had missed getting to school (his mother lives on a small island), and stopped by the house with his mother (my X), and suddenly there they both are at my desk... and she is asking me, "How is your trading going?" Then...."Why are you breathing like that?" Anyhow, I reminded myself of what @Redneck had just said about that in an earlier post... and just focused on trying to do my job. But it was a bit tough, but not in the same way as before, more of an irritant that I had been distracted.

I was up a bit for the day, and had been seeing the market well. Tried a few more trades, and just couldn't quite seem to get it right. I have to say, looking back, I think my mind wasn't really there... not focused like I should have been... I had been there really well earlier, but now I was just not in that same zone. In hindsight, I should have shut it down when I saw my account get back down to zero... but there was just so much opportunity, and so I put on some more trades. Looking back, I now know my mental cap had been depleted, and that wasn't were I needed to be in order to trade well.
Note: Need more time to recharge after distractions, or even just stop for the day.

-306

 

[Redneck]

Something that has been bugging me this week, is that I think due to combine rules

I may need to consider adjusting my methodology to starting the day off with going for smaller profit targets until there is a bit of a buffer built up.

Yuk, best trades are usually in first 30 minutes of trading day in most markets,

so you getting consistent ten point winners, then after you cushion built you are going into much tougher trading and most likely will blow what you have made.

Try shooting for smaller targets for a week, entire time you trade

RN

 

[Redneck]

But it was a bit tough, but not in the same way as before, more of an irritant that I had been distracted.

This is progress with disassociating - good job

But..., let's be forthright (and with reasonable expectations)

With her being mother of your son - completely detaching is going to be nearly impossible - at least for the foreseeable future (think ubber achilles heel)

Note: Need more time to recharge after distractions, or even just stop for the day.

What I bolded needs to be a hard and fast rule (view it as a fail safe switch - especially when acknowledged achillies heels are involved)



Tomorrow - we do'er again

RN

 

[wrbtrader]

UDay #3 - Slept well, and woke up ready for the day. (Incredibly busy day, and only just now able to write... and haven't read any posts yet) Went through my routine and then considered the day that was unfolding before me...

Note: Need more time to recharge after distractions, or even just stop for the day...

Yokoner,

1) In your daily trading routine...you trading before you go to work or you trading also while at work or you trading after work ?

Simply, what are your trading hours.

2) I saw the following question once by someone else but there was not reply. Yet, I may have missed it. You required to trade Crude Oil CL futures and nothing else ?

 

[Handle123]

UDay #3 - Slept well, and woke up ready for the day. (Incredibly busy day, and only just now able to write... and haven't read any posts yet) Went through my routine and then considered the day that was unfolding before me.

Something that has been bugging me this week, is that I think due to combine rules I may need to consider adjusting my methodology to starting the day off with going for smaller profit targets until there is a bit of a buffer built up. Thinking like base hits. The challenge I am finding, is I can put on two or three trades exactly like they should be done, and they don't work and suddenly I am super close to my daily loss limit of $400. (self imposed that is) Now there just isn't the room to take another trade without going over.
Anyhow, it is something I am really need to take a look at, and soon.

Today my trading went well at the beginning of the day, but unfortunately had some abnormal distractions early on in the day. One of them was an urgent phone call just after EIA, so I closed out a winning trade early, and then dealt with that phone call issue. I didn't trade till that was resolved. Then it turns out my son had missed getting to school (his mother lives on a small island), and stopped by the house with his mother (my X), and suddenly there they both are at my desk... and she is asking me, "How is your trading going?" Then...."Why are you breathing like that?" Anyhow, I reminded myself of what @Redneck had just said about that in an earlier post... and just focused on trying to do my job. But it was a bit tough, but not in the same way as before, more of an irritant that I had been distracted.

I was up a bit for the day, and had been seeing the market well. Tried a few more trades, and just couldn't quite seem to get it right. I have to say, looking back, I think my mind wasn't really there... not focused like I should have been... I had been there really well earlier, but now I was just not in that same zone. In hindsight, I should have shut it down when I saw my account get back down to zero... but there was just so much opportunity, and so I put on some more trades. Looking back, I now know my mental cap had been depleted, and that wasn't were I needed to be in order to trade well.
Note: Need more time to recharge after distractions, or even just stop for the day.

-306

Yuk,

You either need to move farther away from your troubles, or consider trading elsewhere and not tell anyone where. These outside tensions are never good, they mess you up al the time. And it is not something where you can simply forget in few minutes, most likely I would just turn off PC and go to the zoo or wherever to entertain your mind. For long time people would stop by on way to work to chat or during my day to see how I feel, I put a sign outside the door saying I am working and don't need a diversion, naw that didn't stop them as they thought sign was for someone else and keep knocking, finally would part in my car outside Starbucks and use Wifi, then go inside and use my Hub for a month, I tried emails, they just kept coming. What did work, I get done early and go to where they worked till they said it was bothering them, and then I said now you now how I feel, maybe you need to go knocking on her door when she sleeping a few times to discuss trading.

 

[Handle123]

Come on ES then back to the Vampires. Life is good. Couple larger winners, couple small losses and wins. Consistency, doing same things each day, very happy to be singles with occasional doubles, best way for me to bring home the bacon each day and not be a pig.