You're a Liar

[themickey]

Think like a cultist in reverse.
A cultist is one who joins a group and believes they are right, that they are of the chosen few.
The problem with 'trading cultists' is when they start on this journey, most think by reading charts they will attain the keys to the kingdom and are surely on the path to finding the holy grail.
However one big surprise, the market always spins in the opposite direction to group think, the religion of cultists.
So become an apostate, the markets love bluffing, loves breaking conventional TA rules, (head & shoulders, S/R, indicators, etc) and be your own person.

 

[smallfil]

I stopped day trading and started swing trading. Mathematically there is more noise in daybrading which results in more noise (randomness).
Swing trading however has more predictability.
To make a living swing trading single leg directional futures/Forex you need a huge account.
Or you could structure trades using option spreads to create predictable income with low margin on a smaller account.
Really all you need to do is reverse engineer the math to find out if you can pay your bills through trading.
Formula for expectation of profit is one I refer to a lot when deciding what trades to take.
Also markets are priced in. You really need to have advanced knowledge or make predictions based on quantifiable data to make any $$$.
This is why I don’t trust 99% of the unsophisticated traders out there trying to say they are profitable. You are competing with some of the brightest and well informed traders on Wall Street; what makes you think you can beat them with your retail platform and retail tools??? Curious to know.

How do you beat the hedge funds, big investors? You don't. They are the market! So, how does a very small retail trader thrive? Think of the hedge funds as sharks. You stay in front of them but, you are but, a smelt. They open their mouths and just eat you for dinner. So, you stay by their side and they do not see you and you are safe! All you have to do is follow the trend. Follow the big hedge funds. If they are driving a stock down by shorting it, why fight it? Go with the flow and make some monies. Let me make this caveat. You will have losing trades but, you certainly, now have the odds in your favor. You still need to have risk management, position sizing, trade journals, trading plan in your trading system. A lot of traders fail because they do not put in enough effort. They are too lazy, put very little effort in yet, expect to make millions in the stockmarket? It isn't happening in your lifetime! Do the work and you will get rewarded!

 

[SunTrader]

I am just a wannabe crude oil trader (trading simulated right now) and you appear to be right on. Thursday, Oil when down $2.00 in 50 minutes. That is a $2,000 gain and if you could just average $2,000 per month per contract in oil you are a successful trader. I only got a fraction of that gain ($450 on the day) but Friday lost over $900 so I have a ways to go.

The reverse question is "Why is it so easy to lose" You don't even have to try. I marvel about just how easy it is. It is sooo easy to pick intraday tops and bottoms when you are on the wrong side. I just keep plugging because if it is that easy to lose then how hard can it be to win? It seems like I just need to engineer my brain to think in reverse.

Although it is not as obvious as doing the opposite trade of what you were contemplating. Looking at things from an opposite viewpoint (hint, hint right/left conservative/liberal) needs to be done by the majority of traders/people in general. But then markets would fail because too many winners, not enough losers so nevermind. But hey maybe our political system might function again. Nah ......

 

[Laissez Faire]

Even if you're a day trader, you still make the majority of your profits from a small percentage of trades. The rest of the time, you get jerked around. To cope, you need to have knowledge and discipline. All kinds of ways to come up short.

My view on "consistency".... even if you get jerked around all day... and if you manage to "net 2" in the ES, that's still a victory. Not a big one, but you "got paid" for your time at the screen. And tomorrow is another day.

Respectfully, I disagree.

If you're getting jerked around all day and somehow manage to net 2 points, that's not a victory, it's gambling. Most likely you'll lose tomorrow.

A good system gives clear signals with a high win percentage. No jerking around.

You should somehow be able to perceive the day ahead. If there is no clear direction or a lack of signals; don't trade. Wait until things are clearer and enter on a signal.

 

[Scataphagos]

D

Respectfully, I disagree.

If you're getting jerked around all day and somehow manage to net 2 points, that's not a victory, it's gambling. Most likely you'll lose tomorrow.

A good system gives clear signals with a high win percentage. No jerking around.

You should somehow be able to perceive the day ahead. If there is no clear direction or a lack of signals; don't trade. Wait until things are clearer and enter on a signal.

Disagree on all points.

Don't be discouraged, but what you said is how I used to "hope"... waaay back when in my early days.

 

[Laissez Faire]

And in case it wasn't obvious - creating a system that consistently gives clear signals in a wide variety of market conditions isn't easy.

Trading the final solution is easy - getting there; most people don't.

 

[Illini Trader]

Looking at things from an opposite viewpoint

Good point! I never saw a break out that I didn't like and like @themickey just said the market likes to bluff. You cannot be successful getting reversed on false breakouts then taking a small profit on the real breakouts that do have strong momentum and follow through. That, I guess, is the overall challenge of trading. Taking the false breakout and trusting it (as a breakout) too long is a recipe for disaster. Whereas treating it with suspicion and as a potential for reversal gets you a low risk entry point.

You guys already have this all figured out but I hope to get there. The beauty of a good simulator like Sierra Charts with CQG feed gives a trader the opportunity to test his ideas and ability with the actual results that would be in the live market complete with commissions.

 

[schweiz]

Even if you're a day trader, you still make the majority of your profits from a small percentage of trades. The rest of the time, you get jerked around. To cope, you need to have knowledge and discipline. All kinds of ways to come up short.

My personal experience is 100% the opposite. In this chart I took just 15 trades that i still had in an Excel. There you can see the importance of every single trade in the total result. The top 33% of my trades in size of profit generate all together 55% of the overall profit. The top 47% of my trades in size of profit generate all together 69% of the overall profit. So not at all a small percentage of trades that generate the profits.To reach 90% of my profits I have to take over 70% of my trades. So not just a few big ones.

My view on "consistency".... even if you get jerked around all day... and if you manage to "net 2" in the ES, that's still a victory. Not a big one, but you "got paid" for your time at the screen. And tomorrow is another day.

2 points a day is still 24K a year net on just 1 contract. Trade 5 contracts and you beat 99% of all traders on ET.

From what I read from you, you are not a daytrader in the ES. So your experience can be true and different. But never generalize things over all the markets and type of traders.

 

[schweiz]

This is something I never believed in too as far as it concerns daytrading the ES.
And trading confirmed my opinion.

 

[Spooz Top 2]

I stopped day trading and started swing trading. Mathematically there is more noise in daybrading which results in more noise (randomness).
Swing trading however has more predictability.
To make a living swing trading single leg directional futures/Forex you need a huge account.
Or you could structure trades using option spreads to create predictable income with low margin on a smaller account.
Really all you need to do is reverse engineer the math to find out if you can pay your bills through trading.
Formula for expectation of profit is one I refer to a lot when deciding what trades to take.
Also markets are priced in. You really need to have advanced knowledge or make predictions based on quantifiable data to make any $$$.
This is why I don’t trust 99% of the unsophisticated traders out there trying to say they are profitable. You are competing with some of the brightest and well informed traders on Wall Street; what makes you think you can beat them with your retail platform and retail tools??? Curious to know.

I always get a laugh out of these types of highlighted statements....As a discretionary trader, You are trading against yourself.. NOT some big bank of Quants with Algos running perpetually, that are out to pillage your account

Only You dictate your RR, ROI, Hard stops, trailing stops, runners, etc... in essence, your trading fate!
Only You can truly beat you... Human nature is not compatible with successful trading philosophy...

It rivals human nature & is completely counter intuitive to " what feels right"
such as averaging down losing trades.... letting losers run because you can`t lose another as you`re account is down 50% and just can`t go further.... You cut your winners short because your confidence is at a tipping point & desperate to "lock one in" before "they" take this one from you too!

Bruce Levy, The true answer isn`t "Swing Trading" or Position Trading... the answer is being true to You. While extending Time frames can benefit you.. The time frames have no bearing on you conquering the "brightest and well informed traders on Wall Street".

Swing, position, day trade, calls, puts, starddles, strangles, butterflys, Iron Condors, etc.
It all boils down to you honoring your trading parameters... nuff said!