Your War Policy Please...Draw You Plans

Originally posted by rs7
OK.... canyonman wants an immediate solution. No one (but Mondo and his big guns), seems to know how to deal with the issue immediately. Seems we all agree that more planning needs to be done, options explored, and strategies developed. We all seem to be too smart to suggest that we know without doubt how to approach the issue NOW. (except Mondo and his big guns).

But since I believe Canyonman wants an academic answer despite our inability to come up with anything foolproof (except Mondo and his big guns), let me make a suggestion. It may not work, but it couldn't hurt. I see no downside whatsoever.

I am sorry that you think the only answer can be a military. Never once did I limit the discussion to that. I merely ask that a participant be prepared to fully defend and/or elaborate on their plan. If you hadn't thought of the next problem/issue we would tackle it together. Levity, is not an option here. That can be found over on the other thread. :)
 
Originally posted by dgabriel
Let's illuminate the policy in effect now first.

You must understand that the objective of the Bush war objective: gain leverage on the Persian gulf oil.

The Iraqi War of 2002 began weeks ago gentleman. kofi annan is undergoing hyperventilating ego-exercises in what is a dog and pony show. He is irrelevant. The US military presence will stir up further discontent among the radicals in the Middle East. And now that al-queda is blasting away at French tankers and blowing up 20 year old Australians at far flung beach resorts, world sentiment against Muslim extremism will rise and find its way into the US camp.

If all goes to plan the results:

1) A madman out of power in a convulsive arena
2) lower oil prices and attendant economic benefit.
3) reduction in regional support of al-queda and Muslim extremists.
4) greater alignment among middle east countries with the West.

If all goes wrong: something short of WWIII.

Great, you've evidenced that you have a belief of what Bush wants to do. You have also gave a fairly competent listing of the parameters that we face. But you have yet to articulate YOUR way of handling the dilemma. I am not interested in your critique of the matters as they stand, I want your program. Front and center. Ready to be reviewed and tested. Otherwise, thanks for the outline. :)
 
Originally posted by canyonman00


I am sorry that you think the only answer can be a military. Never once did I limit the discussion to that. I merely ask that a participant be prepared to fully defend and/or elaborate on their plan. If you hadn't thought of the next problem/issue we would tackle it together. Levity, is not an option here. That can be found over on the other thread. :)

First off, if this was addressed to me, which it appears to be, I do not think the only answer "can be a military" response. I thought I made it clear that I believed a military response should be one of last resort.

"levity is not an option"...ok. Well the LSD is obviously an extreme example of exaggeration. Yet the premise of actual one on one negotiation is actually a tried and true approach. Had Gorbachev and Reagan not met face to face in the late 80's, who knows what path the world would have followed afterwards. It is easy to sit back and say "well the Soviet Union was financially in ruins, and the system didn't work, and it would have collapsed anyway". But we can never KNOW for sure. If Kennedy and Kruschev had not spoken directly, who knows for sure if we would be here today. So if I spoke with "levity" about direct contact between Bush and Saddam, there was still the underlying concept of real discussion leading to real understanding.

Now I readily admit that any such discussion would most likely be an exercise in futility. However, if it could be arranged, there truly would be very little downside. It is amazing how human beings can generally find some common ground or a way to compromise. It is human nature (in most cases..). Saddam is, to our knowledge not a rational human being. However, none of us have ever really been in a position to know exactly what goes through his head. From what we hear and read, he is not to be reasoned with. But can a complete lunatic really retain so much power for so long? And if he is as bad as we are lead to believe, how is it possible that he has not been eliminated by those closest to him? His family, his guards, his servants? The stories we hear of his blatant brutality defy reason.

Please don't misinterpret my meaning. I personally think he personifies evil. But he seems to be such a caricature of himself that I can't help but wonder if our perceptions can be real. Can anyone be that purely evil? Even Hitler has his softer side. (No defense of Hitler intended...I would go back in time if I could and kill him myself if possible).

We negotiated directly with Stalin. He turned on us eventually (as have so many of the Arab and other third world "allies" we have backed at one time or another). But even the brief alliance with Stalin served our purposes for the duration of the War with Germany.

I just think every option should be considered. If nothing works, I believe a limited tactical strike on the leadership of Iraq would make more sense than a massive ground attack. Maybe the old adage "cut off the head and the body dies" will hold true. If we can eliminate Saddam, we may not have to bother with the Iraqi army. And certainly not with the Iraqi people.

And an "occupation" could actually be beneficial to all. It could be a way to contribute food, education and financial support to a nation that otherwise would never accept our contributions without all the goods and services going to the corrupt regimes that are in control. You cannot give foreign aid of any kind when you try and bypass a regime like Saddam's. Remember Somalia.

Just my disjointed thoughts for this morning. I don't see how the "Afghanistan" approach would play out in Iraq. Afghanistan was a different situation. No organized army, no distinct
"popular" leadership, no conventional anything. And importantly, no natural resources with which to use as bargaining chips as there are in Iraq. Remember what the Iraqi forces did when they left Kuwait. If their mentality can conceive of such destructive behavior, then they could be manipulated into believing that we can sever their only assets that make them a viable presence in the world. Threaten to take their resources, and they may crumble with the fear that they would have nothing left with which to deal with the world. In the end, it comes down to putting Iraq in a position of being forced to decide what path will best serve their own purposes. And it would not seem that difficult to limit their choices to either cooperate, or be a global outcast. Broke, hungry and devoid of hope. And all they need to do is take some control over their own lives. These are more educated and more secular people than we have had to deal with in places like Afghanistan. Or Somalia. Psychological warfare should do the trick in Iraq. As long as we can clear the way by somehow taking Saddam and his lunatic sons out of the equation.

Rs7
 
canyonman, i am still getting my arms around the current state of events. I have not formulated a comprehensive policy on Iraq and probably won't.

I would prefer an open aired debate - which is not being waged through the major media but is through alternative media - among policy wonks, critics, war planners, peaceniks, social architects, business interests, religious leaders, politicians.

What's your plan? Or are you just a critic laying in wait?
 
Originally posted by Ron In-a-sauna
3) nobody ever said american policies have been perfect, but it must be easy for the rest of the world, and others like mr. canyon, whose policy is: see what america does first, then critique it and second guess it. its tougher and takes more courage to lead but is much easier to criticize and play monday morning QB.
Do i want a patsy, no. if you read my posts i am calling for democratically elected officials elected by the people of iraq! if they voted sadam in, so be it.

-----------------------------

Unlike others, I have a policy that is quite aggressive and probably too forward for most. And what I am looking to do here is determine where I can improve it by adapting things that make sense. So no practice field quarterbacking here.

Further, I will not be tracking and reviewing your (or another's) posts from elsewhere to find your opinion. They were probably generated in response to some other stimulus. I want them stated here, as relevant. This is a direct one-on-one conversation between two folks who know nothing about each other than we need to develop a solution. I do not want to make any assumptions about your plan, you get to sink or swim here from your own efforts.
----------------------------

4) as far as the poke that i dont know anything about Arab world, i know more than most, and i think pro-arab might not like some of my views b/c the truth can hurt!

However part of the problem is the average american only knows what they see on CNN, i.e 9/11. and vice versa average arabs only know what they are told by al jazeera, bin laden, and dictator controlled media/propoganda in some cases. that def. needs improving.


So, since you know more than most, then you should be able to assist with a pretty good formulation that will power up the support of the Arab community while you make whatever moves that you intend. This will be further evidencing that you have thought out this strategy and its long term implications.
----------------------------

but my point also still stands, the middle east needs better leaders, and how are we going to do it? by following and improving on the afghan model. its not perfect but its the best we have.

Ok, so I am looking for how you intend to aid in that coming about. Develop a plan and not a slick set of defense statements. No mazes here, go straight to the problem.
----------------------------

what is your policy canyon?

It is brewing and it will be served when hot! Care to hang around? If so, pull up a chair and grab a bib! :)
 
Originally posted by canyonman00


We have to stop this Sadam in power thing and I don't think sitting still with sanctions for another ten years is an acceptable solution.

hmm, says who exactly, apart from dubya, in the face of a national debt 3x GDP?

as it is, you are asking for arguments for a presupposition whose validity has in no way been established.

only the moron in chief, dubya, actually came up with the imbecilic notion that anybody had to do anything much different than our policies towards other rogue states such as the ussr, syria, libya, north korea, iran, pakistan, and saudi arabia, etc, countries that either had, have or are seeking weapons of mass destruction, have invaded their neighbors, and used chemical weapons, said policies being containment and deterrence, and, specifically re iraq, the return of un weapons inspectors with an international mandate for full scale weapons inspections.

iraq in no way poses a threat to the usa or even to its neighbors, why would saddam attack the usa either directly or indirectly, when full scale retaliation is a logical given that saddam is fully aware of, and where even the cia has publicly stated, as is indeed only common sense after all, that while it is unlikely that saddam would stage an attack against us unless provoked, said provocation would obviously make an attack very much more likely.

going after saddam is therefore by no means a logical step in the effort against terrorism, no, it is just an extremely costly and illogical, indeed potentially extremely counter-productive, detraction from what should be a priority, namely fighting terrorism and its causes.

if terrorism where really what bush were fighting. which of course he is not. same incompetence, different fields: the economy, and the effort against terrorism.

thus, this entire hypocritical mess is just a classical case of

wagtitle.gif


http://www.wag-the-dog.com

brent scowcroft, national security advisor to presidents gerald ford & george bush senior:
Don't Attack Saddam
It would undermine our antiterror efforts

http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110002133
 
Originally posted by rs7
Please don't misinterpret my meaning. I personally think he personifies evil. But he seems to be such a caricature of himself that I can't help but wonder if our perceptions can be real. Can anyone be that purely evil? Even Hitler has his softer side. (No defense of Hitler intended...I would go back in time if I could and kill him myself if possible).

We negotiated directly with Stalin. He turned on us eventually (as have so many of the Arab and other third world "allies" we have backed at one time or another). But even the brief alliance with Stalin served our purposes for the duration of the War with Germany.


Now you're where I want you. We can talk. I feel that he just might be that evil. And for whatever reason his internal unit has been galvanized into a pretty good support armor. You say that you wonder if our perceptions could be real? Well the Jews would have never believed that a man would go to the lengths that Hitler went to as they boarded the trains for the camps. Someone within the whole Nazi/SS should have taken the shot that would have saved so many. Yet it did not happen. As tragic as it may have been, it could have been stopped. And it wasn't!

Stalin? He turned on us eventually. Sounds as though we only prolonged the inevitable then. Should we opt for that as a base strategy again? Rather than create "brief alliances," why not think through the alliance and the possible turns first. Maybe it IS an option if honestly put together and not planned.
----------------------------------

I just think every option should be considered. If nothing works, I believe a limited tactical strike on the leadership of Iraq would make more sense than a massive ground attack. Maybe the old adage "cut off the head and the body dies" will hold true. If we can eliminate Saddam, we may not have to bother with the Iraqi army. And certainly not with the Iraqi people.

That's exactly what I am trying to do here. Consider options instead of developing a "Concept From the Hip" approach. Think it through as far as possible. Well beyond the field actions.

Limited tactical strike? I like that but intelligence would lead me to understand that this is not practical without some "innocent casualties" being possible. Is that an acceptable thing for you? His fleeing will undoubtedly be through a group of "shield civilians" all claiming to be innocent and unarmed. Are YOU ready for the American outcry of "Unjust Killings" that will follow.
-----------------------------------

And an "occupation" could actually be beneficial to all. It could be a way to contribute food, education and financial support to a nation that otherwise would never accept our contributions without all the goods and services going to the corrupt regimes that are in control. You cannot give foreign aid of any kind when you try and bypass a regime like Saddam's. Remember Somalia.

Ok, I can see that. But what if they do not want our food? What if they claim it is poison laced? That it is a genocide planned by the capitalist dogs of America. Our education? More mind poison. Our money? Trying to buy an allegiance like America always does, throw money at a problem. The Arab world as we are lead to believe is such a monolith that we would have no chance. What preplanning and what countries will you use for the occupation? Any western forces would get no mileage. And what other Arab country are you going to (in their minds) enslave them to? Both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are viewed by many with hate as our puppets. What now?
-------------------------

Just my disjointed thoughts for this morning. I don't see how the "Afghanistan" approach would play but in Iraq. Afghanistan was a different situation. No organized army, no distinct
"popular" leadership, no conventional anything. And importantly, no natural resources with which to use as bargaining chips as there are in Iraq. Remember what the Iraqi forces did when they left Kuwait. If their mentality can conceive of such destructive behavior, then they could be manipulated into believing that we can sever their only assets that make them a viable presence in the world. Threaten to take their resources, and they may crumble with the fear that they would have nothing left with which to deal with the world. In the end, it comes down to putting Iraq in a position of being forced to decide what path will best serve their own purposes. And it would not seem that difficult to limit their choices to either cooperate, or be a global outcast. Broke, hungry and devoid of hope. And all they need to do is take some control over their own lives. These are more educated and more secular people than we have had to deal with in places like Afghanistan. Or Somalia. Psychological warfare should do the trick in Iraq. As long as we can clear the way by somehow taking Saddam and his lunatic sons out of the equation.


This would all be true if the average Iraqi understood what value they do have. They see no benefits from the oil profits other than lavish palaces and a new set of tanks and other weapons. To them, oil is an asset that the west wants. But do they really understand what they have and are not enjoying the benefits from. We talk evil oil, but we should put a face on evil oil. And it ain't an American face/company. The average Iraqi citizen has not been to Disney World, rode on an exclusive personal jet, partied in the finest areas of the world, enjoyed the fruits so to speak. Why not start there? Show them the true enemy! :)
 
Originally posted by canyonman00
The average Iraqi citizen has not been to Disney World, rode on an exclusive personal jet, partied in the finest areas of the world, enjoyed the fruits so to speak. Why not start there? Show them the true enemy! :)

oh, canyon, are you serious?? really looks like all you're doing here is attempting to play the game bush is playing, trying, with very happily ever decreasing success, to pull wool over the eyes of american citizens, by pretending, contrary to all evidence and even mere common sense, that a strike against saddam is legitimate and necessary, by trying to make those who opposes such tomfoolery be made out as unpatriotic, through ministry of propaganda slogans such as, if you're not with us, you're against us, wanted dead or alive, and similar nonsense.

a0Cf+Y=


...Even in her best-case scenario, with all the advantages of education, health, a car, and money for first month's rent, she has to work two jobs, seven days a week, and still almost winds up in a shelter...

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/t...r=1-1/ref=sr_1_1/103-7311694-0445415?v=glance

brent scowcroft, national security advisor to presidents gerald ford & george bush senior:
Don't Attack Saddam
It would undermine our antiterror efforts

 
Originally posted by dgabriel
canyonman, i am still getting my arms around the current state of events. I have not formulated a comprehensive policy on Iraq and probably won't.

I would prefer an open aired debate - which is not being waged through the major media but is through alternative media - among policy wonks, critics, war planners, peaceniks, social architects, business interests, religious leaders, politicians.

What's your plan? Or are you just a critic laying in wait?

Hmm. Policy wonks are why we are where we are so they definitely would not be too high on my list of innovative planning. Nor would most of the other agenda specialists that you listed. That's why I am turning to you. Hopefully, you are expanding your mind beyond what you are hearing from all the pundits.

Comprehensive policy? Now there's a novel concept. Is that possible with our government. Every side seems to be trying to get a leg up on the other rather than developing a long term path. A path that will be beneficial to us ALL. American, Iraqi, Arab, etc., all sharing in the efforts and results therof.

My plan is still being put together. A little pepper here. Some sea salt there. The broth is coming along fine. I think this meal needs a salad too. I am not a sideline chef here. This, is my kitchen this time. Dinner will be served. Grab a chair, you're invited! :)
 
Originally posted by canyonman00


Grab a chair, you're invited! :)

invited to a magical mystery tour with the foregone conclusion that in a make believe world inhabited by the likes of dubya and his happily few comrades in arms logic need not apply, hence no need for bringing up any actual reasons with actual substance as opposed to mere spin doctoring for taking on saddam?

wagging the dog, in other words?

why, thanks for the invitation.

if the the movie is anything to go by, that was good. and now we even have the undiluted pleasure of seeing it being enacted live.

and live is always better, wouldn't you agree?

ah, i'll just infer that you agree, as you have very graciously extended such a kind invitation to be first row participants in a good old game of spin spinning merrily away beyond belief.:D
 
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