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Your post Fed meeting sentiment tomorrow
- Thread starter a529612
- Start date
here is what the last statement read from JAN 30-31 meeting:
Highlights
The Fed left unchanged the federal funds target rate at 5-1/4 percent as expected. Several facets of the statement stand out. First, the FOMC noted firmer economic growth inclusive of stabilization in the housing market and their expectation of moderate economic growth ahead. For the first time in a while, the FOMC had something positive to say about inflation, "Readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months, and inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time." Despite noting the improvement in inflation, the FOMC retained its anti-inflation bias. The committee retained the wording that further rate hikes may be needed, depending on incoming data. However, this statement is the most balanced since the Fed began the most recent tightening cycle.
On January 31, 2006, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the federal funds target rate at 5.25 percent for the fifth consecutive time. The primary credit rate has also been maintained at 6.25 percent. In its press release, the Committee explained that its decision was based on the fact that âreadings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months, and inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time.â But it also noted that âsome inflation risks remainâ due to a âhigh level of resource utilization.â Because of these inflationary pressures, the committeeâs statement continues to suggest that the next move might be up.
The monetary authoritiesâ decision to leave their key interest rate unchanged did not surprise market participants. At the close of business on the day before the January 31 announcement, the Chicago Board of Tradeâs federal funds rate futures revealed that investors judged that there was a 98 percent probability that the Committee would leave the target rate unchanged, and a mere 2 percent that the Committee would decrease the rate by 25 basis points, from 5-1/4 percent to 5 percent.
Highlights
The Fed left unchanged the federal funds target rate at 5-1/4 percent as expected. Several facets of the statement stand out. First, the FOMC noted firmer economic growth inclusive of stabilization in the housing market and their expectation of moderate economic growth ahead. For the first time in a while, the FOMC had something positive to say about inflation, "Readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months, and inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time." Despite noting the improvement in inflation, the FOMC retained its anti-inflation bias. The committee retained the wording that further rate hikes may be needed, depending on incoming data. However, this statement is the most balanced since the Fed began the most recent tightening cycle.
On January 31, 2006, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the federal funds target rate at 5.25 percent for the fifth consecutive time. The primary credit rate has also been maintained at 6.25 percent. In its press release, the Committee explained that its decision was based on the fact that âreadings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months, and inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time.â But it also noted that âsome inflation risks remainâ due to a âhigh level of resource utilization.â Because of these inflationary pressures, the committeeâs statement continues to suggest that the next move might be up.
The monetary authoritiesâ decision to leave their key interest rate unchanged did not surprise market participants. At the close of business on the day before the January 31 announcement, the Chicago Board of Tradeâs federal funds rate futures revealed that investors judged that there was a 98 percent probability that the Committee would leave the target rate unchanged, and a mere 2 percent that the Committee would decrease the rate by 25 basis points, from 5-1/4 percent to 5 percent.
Cash range today will be 1399 to 1416 on S&P. If they bust 1399 you will see 1388. All of the past buy the dippers will be crushed this time.
Going higher
fed will be very careful not to cause an upset
fed will be very careful not to cause an upset
Quote from makloda:
And what will the indexes do between now and the new highs? Just go up in a straight line +0.1% each day?
Yep.
While I have been bearish ON THE ECONOMY since January, I haven't been pretending I can predict what the stock market is going to do on a day to day, or month to month, or even multi-month basis.
Because I am bearish on ON THE ECONOMY and expect CORPORATE EARNINGS to slow and the full impact of the HOUSING, MORTGAGE AND LIQUIDITY woes to worsen before they get better, it is hard for me to be bullish on stock prices GIVEN A YEAR TIMEFRAME or so.
But stock_trad3 and his past incarnations just make blanket statements about how the market HAS TO GO HIGHER.
They never bother offering up a single detail as to why they are so boldly making the blanket statements they are making.
I will make one argument for them: Yields on bonds are low and investors aren't happy accepting those perceived low returns, so they will keep assuming higher and higher levels of risk, and equities are a place they are willing to invest their money in such an environment.
There. That wasn't difficult.
When I make a guess, I hope it's at least approaching an educated and informed one, otherwise known as a hypothesis, EVEN IF I'M ULTIMATELY WRONG.
If I ever lose faith that rationality, over a longer time frame, won't revert reality to the mean, I will be troubled.
Quote from makloda:
And what will the indexes do between now and the new highs? Just go up in a straight line +0.1% each day?
Um there will be some down days and some updays obviously but we will see more of those .6-1.5% daily gains as we saw last week.
um here is why the markets will continue to go higher:
1. Inflation under control.
2. Revenue and profit growth while it may slow is still increasing
3. No serious economic developments or bad news
4. Oil going lower or stable
5. Lots of consumer spending
6. Strong Double bottom formed last week
7. A lot of the asian and Euro indexes have reboudned very nicely after the Feb 27th selloff and are on the way to make new highs yet again
8. Terror under control
9. PE ratios stable. No signs of extended valuations for the major indexes.
And this is my only account.