Your opinion of Trade Ideas

B

Bodrey

Hi All,

I'm a newer trader and I only learned about this new app called "Trade Ideas" the other day. I'm interested in hearing from anyone here that has used its scanner and placed trades based on any of the candidates identified.

I watched a brief demonstration video of it and it looks very promising! It appears to be robust, yet user-friendly. I observed during the video that search results can be filtered based on Probability of Profit (POP), among several other criteria. Several Put Credit Spread and Iron Condors trade candidates (see pics) were identified with POPs in the high 60s and even 70s percentile ranges. Is there anyone here that can tell me whether they placed any of these high POP trades and if so were they profitable?

I just learned that I can download the Trade Ideas app directly from their web site, but what's the catch? Surely, they're not providing it free. Either it's fully functional for a set period of time after which some features are disabled, or it must have limitations out of the gate (i.e. delayed Real Time data) until you pay a subscription fee? The company that made the video alluded to the fact that a subscription is required to access and use it. If that's the case, can anyone let me know if the app generates enough profitable trades to justify the cost of the subscription?

https://ibb.co/hF2qtWV
https://ibb.co/qWX0Mcs
 
High POP isn't necessarily good.
Look at the risk/reward.
The first trade idea you showed had a reward of $12 vs. risk of $88.
You need ~8 winning trades for every losing trade just to break even.
Ask "Trade Ideas" if they have a track record. If not .... good luck.

I have a small account at Firstrade. Almost every week they send out an options trading idea from "The Options Wizard". No cost. Haven't followed the trade ideas to see if they're profitable but at least the trades have a better R:R than 12:88.

Couple recent ideas:

Firstrade.2.png
Firstrade.1.png
 
Bodrey said:
can anyone let me know if the app generates enough profitable trades to justify the cost of the subscription?
More...

Trades are generated by your brain...software is just help.
full automation using off the shelf mass market $50/mo product is.....
 
BKR88 said:
High POP isn't necessarily good.
Look at the risk/reward.
The first trade idea you showed had a reward of $12 vs. risk of $88.
You need ~8 winning trades for every losing trade just to break even.
Ask "Trade Ideas" if they have a track record. If not .... good luck.

I have a small account at Firstrade. Almost every week they send out an options trading idea from "The Options Wizard". No cost. Haven't followed the trade ideas to see if they're profitable but at least the trades have a better R:R than 12:88.

Couple recent ideas:

View attachment 323399 View attachment 323400
More...
Thanks for your input. OK, so what minimum R/R ratio do you recommend? I've been using Barchart's stock screener for a long time now (I find its UI to be the "cleanest" and most intuitive), although I don't think it's as robust as some others. "John Rowland" hosts a lot of their webinars, and he looks for trades with an R/R of a minimum of 1:3 (33%). I've used their screener to identify trade candidates based on this criteria and he may be on to something because at most the best R/R I've seen is perhaps something in the low 40s. Perhaps this number would be bigger or smaller depending on the trade strategy being used (i.e. Vertical Spread vs Iron Condor; I don't place undefined risk trades). If you know of any screeners that also calculate this value for you (and perhaps are able to identify potential trade candidates with higher R/Rs) please let me know.

Oh... also, I'd like to ask you about Break Even percentages. I'm new(ish) to trading so please forgive my ignorance, but it seems to me that the higher the BE is, the better? Please clarify and correct me if I'm wrong. Again, many of the trade candidates ID'd by Barchart's screener return BE %s that at best are in the low 50s.

TIA
 
Bodrey said:
Thanks for your input. OK, so what minimum R/R ratio do you recommend? I've been using Barchart's stock screener for a long time now (I find its UI to be the "cleanest" and most intuitive), although I don't think it's as robust as some others. "John Rowland" hosts a lot of their webinars, and he looks for trades with an R/R of a minimum of 1:3 (33%). I've used their screener to identify trade candidates based on this criteria and he may be on to something because at most the best R/R I've seen is perhaps something in the low 40s. Perhaps this number would be bigger or smaller depending on the trade strategy being used (i.e. Vertical Spread vs Iron Condor; I don't place undefined risk trades). If you know of any screeners that also calculate this value for you (and perhaps are able to identify potential trade candidates with higher R/Rs) please let me know.

Oh... also, I'd like to ask you about Break Even percentages. I'm new(ish) to trading so please forgive my ignorance, but it seems to me that the higher the BE is, the better? Please clarify and correct me if I'm wrong. Again, many of the trade candidates ID'd by Barchart's screener return BE %s that at best are in the low 50s.

TIA
More...

R:R is going to vary from one trader to the next. Several years ago someone on ForexFactory made more than 1,000 coin flip trades in FX with R:R of 1:1, 1:2, 1:3 and 1:4. His results had the 1:3 giving the best results. There are successful option writers that trade with a very poor R:R but they cut their losses at some point before they hit the maximum loss so there isn't a *best* R:R.

Everything in trading is going to be trader specific with regard to R:R, BE, strategy, etc... so I wouldn't take anything you read as gospel as what works for 1 trader may not work for the next. Getting ideas from what you read is OK just be willing to try something that goes against what you read.
 
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