Your odds of being consistent profitable in trading

There are only 30 NBA teams but 1400 US colleges with a basketball team, perhaps 21,000 college players total.

The odds of each who plays college basketball, drafted by the NBA each year and be able to make a living playing (2 draft rounds, 60 picks): < 0.3%

You can go down the list, baseball, football, concert pianists, concert violinists, actors/actresses, doctors....

In life it is never easy to be really good and successful at something, anything.
 
I think it is less than 1% that do well in day trading and or scalping, took me several years to be consistently profitable.

Running all the stats of my profits through the years, 65% is long term futures trading. I don't do much swing trading which is basically adding onto positions. 20% has been long term stock investing/ dividends, selling calls. Aprox 15% been intraday. This is from starting 1978... Last couple years been cutting back great deal of intraday and stocks, eventually it just be long term commodities.

Getting to age where just not much interested in trading much.
 
Handle123 said:
I think it is less than 1% that do well in day trading and or scalping, took me several years to be consistently profitable.

Running all the stats of my profits through the years, 65% is long term futures trading. I don't do much swing trading which is basically adding onto positions. 20% has been long term stock investing/ dividends, selling calls. Aprox 15% been intraday. This is from starting 1978... Last couple years been cutting back great deal of intraday and stocks, eventually it just be long term commodities.

Getting to age where just not much interested in trading much.
More...
You probably don't remember, back in 2014-15, you were kind enough to give me some coaching and made me a much better options trader.
 
Handle123 said:
Getting to age where just not much interested in trading much.
More...
%%
Good points, Handle123 .
EXCEPT ;
like Jim Cramer wrote\ one asked ''are you an investor or trader'' His answer= ''I dont even like the question, LOL:D:D'' Great answer.
Other big 5 +exceptions, SPY + QQQ, sometimes PSQ, cash copper , REALTY, are great benchmarks.
Now where is it ever written/ I will limit myself to trade or invest in those.......
 
TrAndy2022 said:
"According to experienced traders approximately 33% of traders are able to profit over a 3-month period whereas the percentage of those market participants who trade consistently, on a yearly basis stands at 7.7%. This suggests that more than 92% of traders cannot achieve this goal."

https://forexsuggest.com/consistent-in-forex/

90% of day traders lose money consistently.
Only 1% of day traders are predicted to be profitable after costs.
97% of individual day traders consistently lose money.
40% of day traders quit within a month, and 87% quit within 3 years.
Approximately 17% of day traders can manage to earn minimum wage via day trading.
Only 3% of day traders make consistent profits.

https://blog.gitnux.com/day-trading-statistics/

There are 9.6 million forex traders globally, and the average age of traders is 43.1 years.
99.6% of retail Forex traders cannot achieve more than four back-to-back profitable quarters.
7% of all traders have been trading forex for more than a decade, 39% have been trading for 1-3 years, while 31% of traders have been trading for less than a year.

https://analyzingalpha.com/forex-statistics

-------------------------------------CONCLUSIONS (with some assumptions as best estimation of the odds)------------------------------------------------

Speaking of the odds of being consistent profitable as experienced trader, where you should have a decade of market experience.

7.7% of all experienced traders can trade consistently.

Only 3% of day traders make consistent profits. => So swing traders being consistent profitable is easier.

5% of all Forex traders are consistent profitable (=(100%-99.6%)/7%). => So being consistent profitable as experienced traders on Forex is more difficult than other asset classes.

After you traded for one decade daytrading Forex is most difficult, but swing trading non FX products is easiest to get consistent profitable. Your odds to be consistent profitable after that decade of experience are somwhere between 1:33 to 1:13.

So the conclusions (with assumptions as best estimation here):

FX daytrading most difficult | Your odds are ~ 1:50 (with 10 years trading experience (!))

Non-FX daytrading second rank | Your odds are ~ 1:25

FX swing trading third rank | Your odds are ~ 1:12.5

Non-FX swing trading highest rank or least difficult (to be consistent profitable after 10 years of trading experience) | Your odds are ~ 1:8

If you have only little trading experience your chance of being consistent profitable are somewhere between 1:80 to 1:500 so between 0.2% to 1.25% depending on what asset class (FX or non-FX) and trading style (daytrading or swing trading) you trade.

(Of course all estimated odds, presented here, should be understood as average numbers as there can be of course some deviations of it for the individual trader.)
More...
Hello TrAndy2022,

My odds are 100% in my favor I will be successful and extremely rich. GURANTEED, no ifs and buts about it. Without a shadow of doubt.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top