"Excess deaths" is a metric that has apparently been around for decades, yet did not really reach a level of main-stream discourse here on ET until about a year ago.
Now why is that?
You're correct...excess deaths or excess mortality rates have been followed for many decades. I started seeing data in the late 1980's in college but it became more easily available to the public a little later in the internet boom years.
- Excess Mortality Rates and VAERS are data sets that tend to catch people's attention during epidemics and pandemics.
I do remember in the late 1980s seeing projected charts that showed an increase in excess mortality rates by the 2020s of 10% in all age groups.
By the way, I'm still in touch with people who work in the immunology and infectious disease research groups/universities...college buddies of mine. Back in 2015, they said we're going to have a +10% projected increase by the 2020s. In fact, in 2016 I traveled to France to check on my grandparent's home...to a region that was having an 18% increase in Pneumonia deaths.
In the fall of 2016, I contracted Pneumonia and almost died (coma for about 2 months).
I was very lucky to have survived only because I'm not overweight, have no cholesterol problems, no diabetes, am not a smoker, have no family history of heart attacks/strokes, and I regularly exercise.
Yet, I do remember my buddies talking to me about the
projected rise in heat temperatures that will produce a
shocking increase in excess mortality rates...it was scary to see the dozens of different illnesses and diseases that will increase in tune with increasing heat temperatures.
- In fact, each heat increase above the norm for any region in the United States is associated with an average of 1,373 extra deaths (excess mortality) each year.
By the way, another shocking increases due to prolonged exposure to
excessive heat can lead to other impacts as well.
Above the norm of damaged crops, injuring or killing livestock, increasing the risk of wildfires, increasing number of power outages as heavy demands for air conditioning strain the power grid, increases in shootings and murders et cetera.
https://www.c2es.org/content/heat-waves-and-climate-change/
Summary
The increases in mortality due to COVID-19, unintentional injuries, chronic liver disease, cirrhosis, suicide, homicide, and
heat/humidity related.
P.S. Time for some ice-cold cranberry juice after the heavy talk about increasing heat and excess mortality rates.
wrbtrader