Of course knowing the future in trading or investing is the holy grail of trading. Insider Trading proved that too us already.
Unfortunately, we do not know the future of a trading position outcome.
Are you insider trading?
I don't know how someone can 'insider trade' the S&P, the entire broad market. Even if someone does have inside information, that is no guarantee they'll make money....the market can definitely be iffy, at times. And slightly more complicated than knowing reporting numbers.
They keywords are Reasonably, and Consistently. Anyone can trade, guess, gamble and be right....80% of the time, or 26% of the time, or 11% of the time, or 71% of the time. Having a 1:1 risk/reward ratio within this overall picture will get you nowhere. Don't guess and gamble. Trading and understanding and observing the market and knowing when to strike is part art, part science. Nothing serious can be achieved by an automated, fixed, formula.
Establishing a reasonable market hypothesis, and waiting patiently for tells and signs, and knowing when to strike to place the trade/and close the trade, will get you there.
Of course a trader will be wrong from time to time, maybe a lot of time. But losses are ok, fine and dandy....as long as the trader is self-aware and neutral enough to minimize, and cut, those losses early.
If a trader is Reasonably right, and Consistent overall, they can make a lot of money from the market.
You don't have to nail the complete market image chart line....just nailing it partially, or fractionally, will make someone rich.
I know all this may sound vague and generic, but I won't reveal my exact trade process, step-by-step, in actionable technicality,