Youngtrader's Commodity Journal

Happy New Year Everyone!

Its another year and lets make it a profitable one (I have a long way to go to make my yearly goal).

Looking ahead into tomorrow. Im planning on getting short crude if we can get a break below 94.73. I don't go back to school until thursday so I will be watching/trading it intra day.

Im also looking at a possible short in the British Pound. I think we might chop in this range we have of 2.005-1.970. A break through that range and this will signal where we are headed longer term (should be to the downside). BOE if forcasted to continue to cut rates in 08 and couple that with a dollar rally in 08 (I know it sounds like bullshit to me too :) ). Non the less If both those situations happen the pound could be in for a pounding!
 
Quote from youngtrader:

Looking ahead into tomorrow. Im planning on getting short crude if we can get a break below 94.73. I don't go back to school until thursday so I will be watching/trading it intra day.

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Hi Youngtrader.

Just found your journal and started reading backwards. Nice work!

How did you pick 94.73 as an entry to short? I assume you are trading the front month contract (Feb). Do you use moving averages?

Thanks.
 
Quote from xyannix:

Hi Youngtrader.

Just found your journal and started reading backwards. Nice work!

How did you pick 94.73 as an entry to short? I assume you are trading the front month contract (Feb). Do you use moving averages?

Thanks.
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Thanks for the compliments.

I picked that reason based off of price action alone. All im trying to do is look and see if the market can start to make new lows since it has failed to make new highs (a stratagy I use intra day also). I don't use any tech indicators (usually). Although I do use RSI sometimes which I find to be a big help. Yes I am trading the front month.

Going into 2008 I think we will see the average price of crude around $80-$85. This seems to be fair value for crude oil in these conditions.
 
Quote from xyannix:

How do you manage risk?
Where do you set your stops?
How long do you hold trades?
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All very good questions and all very tough to answer.

I manage my risk very discretionally. I usually will not use stops but keep mental levels in my head as to where I would look at getting out. I will hold trades anywhere from 1day-1month. It all depends on the particular situation im in and how much potential I think the trade has. For intra day currency trading (mainly british pound and canadian dollar) I trade off a 15 min chart only so I might be in and out of a trade within minutes or I might keep the trade on for an hour or so. Like I said im very discretional in my trading.

Today sucked! I got chopped up in both the pound and canadian. Everytime I went one way thinking we might trend a little its like they pulled the plug and all the momentum drained out. ISM manufacturing came out worse than expected which I thought should give some pop to both of the currencies (especially the canadian which supposable trades well off of gold and oil). They turn out to be the only two currencies which were in the red most of the day lol! None the less I ended up profiting $10 on the day lol! So I didn't get skunked completely.

I did not short either the pound or oil today as a position trade. Even with oil reaching $100 a barrel in the pit I still think it is grossly over priced and is due for a major correction and I intend to be there when it happens. Inventories are out tomorrow. If we don't get another draw this thing could plummet!
 
Quote from I, Deviant:

Great journal, Youngtrader.

I can tell you're gonna go a long way in this game if you keep it up.
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I appreciate the compliment! It feels good to hear things like that and know that people think you are going to be a success (although im a hell of a long way away from success yet lol!).
 
Quote from youngtrader:

I appreciate the compliment! It feels good to hear things like that and know that people think you are going to be a success (although im a hell of a long way away from success yet lol!).
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Rome wasn't built in a day.

Keep it up.
 
Exciting day today in the pound! Started the day like always at 3am and we were trading a little lower. 3:30 hit and we had UK PMI construction numbers which turned out to be better than what was estimated. I went long at the 4:15 15 min bar at the price of 197.04 and exited at 197.14. I made a few more trades before the US data came out starting at 7:15. The data turned out to be on the bullish side of things. At that time the 10 year started to break so I entered a short at the 7:30 15 min bar at 197.47 and covered at 197.29. I should of left that trade on a little longer but hind sight is 20/20. That was the last trade I made before heading to school. Total profit was $362.50 but after commisions my net profit was $337.50. Not to damn bad if I do say so myself.

Tomorrow we have 5 bits of UK data coming out at 3:30am. We have data coming from EMU at 4am. We also have a lot of US data coming out at 7:30am. I will be watching out for these pieces of data and place my trades accordingly.

As for position trades. I did short 1 Pound at 197.29. I actually was hesitant to do this but after seeing how the market reacted at 7:30 before going to school I knew I wouldn't be at too much risk.

Talk to ya tomorrow.
 
I'm refraining from all but the most absolutely necessary posting this year to concentrate all of my attention on accomplishing my trading goals in the New Year.

But I've gotta tell you kid, great journal.

Good trading in '08.

I
 
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