Youngtrader's Commodity Journal

thx for the info YT - I have TOS and the AGs and Metals are the only commodities avail w/any liquidity. Of course, it is enough to look after all of these on a daily basis. The commodity trader's almanac shows a bullish bias for coffee and cocoa in Jan so I'd like to trade these if they start trending. I had IB last year but the technical glitches caused me to bail. I may take next week off so if I do happy holidays til then.
Cheers & safe trading
 
Quote from rzepe5:

Colleges:

Depaul- Good Rep and a lot of fun located in the heart of Lincolnn Park. Tons of hotties running around all the time and good social life.

Loyola- Just apply, good rep private school.

Northwestern- Make sure you do well on your tests and show you have a very active life outside of school. Should be a top school as it is rated one.

Univeristy of Chicago- Need to be more than half a genius to get in. You could meet some future top traders here and there have been plenty of hedge fund managers to walk these halls. Though I don't think you have to be a genius to be a successful trader, this school presents outstanding opportunities after graduation.

Ambitious plays; UC and NW. All around college experience plays: Depaul and Loyola

Good Luck
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rzepe5

Thanks for the help. Yeah I doubt UC and NW would want me. Im just a farm kid from Iowa with a 3.0 gpa. But what about depaul and loyola? Some of the traders I know in chicago have said these are pretty good school too. Are they both equally hard to get into or is one harder than the other? Which one would you say is more prestigious?

Also U of Illinois Chicago campus was mentioned to me. What do you think about that school and is it possible to get into?

Thanks Again
 
Quote from xtrhvydty:

thx for the info YT - I have TOS and the AGs and Metals are the only commodities avail w/any liquidity. Of course, it is enough to look after all of these on a daily basis. The commodity trader's almanac shows a bullish bias for coffee and cocoa in Jan so I'd like to trade these if they start trending. I had IB last year but the technical glitches caused me to bail. I may take next week off so if I do happy holidays til then.
Cheers & safe trading
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I would be careful on getting long coffee at these levels. I think we are gonna see a bearish report on jan 8 for the new crop. We are also technically at the top of a long term trading range on the weekly chart.

No opinion on cocoa

Happy Holidays to you!
 
Sugar traded a little lower early in the session and then caught a bid. Closed up a few ticks I think.

Still short my 2 coffee at 134.25. Closed up a little to 133.85. I will short another when we can trade down to 133 or so.

OJ finally broke today. Down 2.60 at 148.70. I heard it was option related selling....whatever the hell that means lol! A close below 147 and im interested in selling another. That would take us down to around 142.5 then 137.5 after that look out below! I pity the poor fools who are long this thing going into the holiday break!

Positions going into the holiday are:
Short 2 march coffee at 134.25
Short 1 march oj at 150.8
Flat sugar

Not a very active day but good to see oj finally break a little.

Merry Christmas! Talk to you Wednesday!
 
Everything working according to plan so far today.

Coffee falling nicely! Still holding on tight for now. Was looking for a close below 132 so I could add to my position but no such luck. News was funds started dumping positions and we hit lots of stops. No volume at all today!!! A close below 132 tomorrow sets us up for trade down at todays low of 129.5. A close below 129 and we are headed for 123 easy.

OJ doing exactly what I expected. I was looking at the commitment of traders yesterday after scarfing down some terrific prime rib made by my grandmother (she is a great cook!). Funds actually cut longs and added shorts!!! It was a total commercial led rally like I had stated earlier with commercials increasing longs by 800 contracts! I can't hardly blame them though. Think about it, you had sat, sun, mon and tue as non trading days. We are in the heart of freeze season and these guys who actually need oj don't want to come to work on wednesday and find out there was a feeze in florida and that they were not even partially covered on their oj needs. So this confirms my thoughts about the commercials getting long last week due to freeze worries. No freeze has occured over the holiday break and florida looks to be in the 60s over the next week or so. Watch these guys dump their positions this week as the threat of freeze becomes less and less threatening.
 
A few closing comments:

Coffee settled down about .85 to 133.35. These son of a bitches just can't take it any lower than 133. I think everybody in coffee is just waiting on the jan 8 crop report. This is the only piece of fundamental input that the market will look forward to. Until then I can still see us trading in the 123-129 range even before the report. This seems to be a pretty good fair value area for coffee......at least for now. Like I said earlier today I will add shorts if we close below 132 and then again with a close below 129 and yet again with a close below 123.

OJ closed damn near on its lows. I basically stated the reasons for it earlier today. I see oj trading to at least 140 before it is all over. A break through 140 and this thing will tank! We need a close below 145 to get me interested in more shorts. Then a close below 142.5 sets us up for 140 and then to 137 or so. After that we could trade all the way down to 115.

The trade took a little off the sugar market today. Down 12 ticks. Im looking at the 1060 area to get long this thing. Imo its probably just some guys taking money and squaring their books for the end of the year. No major short sellers in this decline today.
 
YoungTrader,

I dont trade crude or know much about it, but I have noticed for a while that it seems to be correlating with stocks. (if the economy holds up, so will oil demand logic). And is illogical as it may seem, with all the bad news, i think stocks are going to go higher and if they do, i think it could bring crude along for the ride. As i said i dont now to much about crude, but think this could be a possible scenario. Also I thin the opposite could hold true if the SPOOZ were to break down.
 
FT

I dont know man, im just looking at a chart of feb crude here and it looks pretty damn toppy to me.....but I have been wrong before. Although crude supplies did drop by 7.6 million barrels that is an easily manipulated number. Think about it, crude imports dropped by almost a million barrels a day. That times 7 is 7 million barrels right there. Now keep in mind that during this time the houston shipping channel (major import terminal for crude) was shut down. That cuts off a lot of the gulf coast imports. Canadian imports were down due to the Enbridge pipeline fire. So basically all of that 7.6 million barrel draw can be explained and I look for tomorrows report to be a little less bullish than last weeks. Funds have added 10,000 shorts in the last commitment of traders report. I dont know I just think this thing might be ripe for a short.

Yeah im deffinantly enjoying this time off. Trading the markets is my passion and something that I can do half way decent. Im not a good student in school (3.0 gpa), im not a varsity quarterback on the football team (sat on the bench for 2 years before I called it quits), etc. I just hope I can take advantage of this time I have off and capitalize on the opportunities that come before me.
 
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