Youngtrader's Commodity Journal

Nice day today guys! No school today because we made it to state in volleyball. Went with a couple of guys to the game and it was a great time. So needless to say didn't keep up on the markets as much as I probably should have.

July wheat fell nicely today and reversed down from the upper trading range as predicted. Just gonna keep holding on to this one and will look for about a dollar in the trade! Don't expect much of a report tomorrow so im not to worried about it. Corn rallied today and was hoping for a little pullback along with everything else to get long. I expect a bullish number tomorrow for corn and bearish numbers for beans and wheat.

Cashed out of s&p trade today at 1460. Was hoping for 1450 but thought its not worth getting greedy (although I really wanted to). $2000 profit there! Wish I would of sold a lot more but whatever. Still will look for pops to short.

As for my corn put and apple call everything did fine there.

About to give up on the sugar lol!
 
Quote from JimmyJam:

Great Journal.

It would be nice if you could post charts as well, illustrating the points you are talking about.

You're off to a great start as a trader, but try not to blow off the school'in too much. The social connections, degreee and genral education will prove to be invaluable every day of your life, and the discipline it enforces does not have a dollar amount attached to it.

If this Journal is any kind of an example, you'll have plenty of time to make all the money you want.

Good trading,

JJ
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JJ thanks for the compliments and its good to know people are enjoying reading the journal as much as I am trading it. Yeah I hear ya trading is the best but you need time for hanging out with friends and having a good time (which I tend to do a little to much lol).

Also im not to much of a technical trader unless im trading something other than the grains. I like the fundamentals but there is a place for looking at a chart to find areas to enter and exit. I would post charts on the journal but I do not know how to post them lol! If you could tell me how to do it I would gladly post a chart if it is more of a technical trade but fundamentals are a huge part of my trading.

Also I encourage any other constructive critisism anybody has about the way I post on the journal or the trades I make.
 
Looking to sell that bean oil spread today at .10 over if I can get it done. It didn't really cross my mind yesterday so I didn't try to get a position on. I thought though with the recent rally we might have a chance for those highs on the chart. Also from a recomendation I will be looking at some corn wheat hear. I was recomended spreading march but I feel better spreading july. So will look to buy july corn and sell july wheat at around 265 level. Will keep my 2 short july wheats.

Should of held on to that s&p short. But you can't win them all.

As always will still have my eye on the sugar.

Don't expect to do anything with my options.

Postions:
short 2 july wheat @ 693
sold nov apple 200 call @ 3.00
sold march corn 350 put @ 12
 
Sold that march/oct bean oil spread friday at .10. I think this should be a nice trade and expect to make a few bucks on it. Report turned out to be just about what I thought except the suprise bullishness in beans that I didn't think would happen. In my opinion we are near a top hear in the bean market. Corn had a little bullishness in the report and wheat was bearish so not to many suprises.

July wheat closed flat friday after being down around 15 cents at one point. All I can think of there is that guys are still a little reluctant to break this new crop with still so much growing season left. I have no doubt they will break this market eventually but until then watch for short opportunities at the 695 level or so. I feel this trade could be a big winner if you give it patience.

Corn opened a lot lower and closed strong. Like I said bullish info from the report with yields dissapointing near the end of harvest. Exports have been strong and staying strong even as we crawl higher which is a good sign. I feel that when harvest is completely over exports will explode as ethanol plants and other end users go to the market to secure some corn for there opporations. I will watch to buy dips in this market (should of friday!)

Other than that not a whole lot out there enticing. Will look at wheat/corn july spread, march corn, march sugar, maybe some march cotton.

Positions:
short july wheat
short march/oct bean oil
short nov 200 apple call
short march 350 corn put
 
Out of my march/oct bean oil spread. Kinda blew up today so got out at .20 for $600 dollar loss. Still feel this is good but its really out of control for now. Will wait for another opportunity to try to sell it.

July wheat down 5 cents today closing at 676. This baby is going down!

Corn down about 8 cents today. Not quite low enough for me to get long but another 5 cents and I might be interested. We are overbought hear and due for a little correction.

Sold 1 march cotton at 68. Not much to say hear other than I wanted to sell it based off of the charts.

Positions:
Short 2 july wheat
Short 1 march cotton
Short 1 corn put
Short 1 apple call
 
been reading your post and think you have the passion it takes to become a trader. myself i dont really consider myself a trader, i am more of a researcher who trades to make money so he can research.

i worked for some great traders in the past in fact there was a top trader list on this forum and i worked for or with or have partnerships with about 10 of them. one of the best ever told me these three rules.

1.) son dont ever talk about buying options we only sell them here.

2.) dont ever talk to me about elliot wave theory or anything like it.

3.) if you come to me with a good idea - it better be a good idea cause we only experiment with real money. we dont paper trade around here.

to this day i have never bought an option, but i can tell you selling them aint no bed of roses either look at a chart in 1996 i was short wheat calls. probably some inexperienced buyer was buying a Ferrari on his first trade ever and went on to never win another trade buying wheat calls until 2002 "if" he wasn't to busy flipping burgers somewhere.
 
Well guys today im going to look at buying march corn around the 390 level or so. Selling jan canola. Also looking at buying the march sugar at 980. Everyone knows my reasons for the corn and sugar but the canola is something I havn't talked about before. I don't really know much about the commodity and have never traded it before. I know it follows bean oil closely and germany is a major producer of canola other than that im clueless lol! But thats what the charts are for at times. I also think bean oil will have a correction soon which should weigh on canola futures. Going to look to sell it around 447.

July wheat called a little lower today and traded about 3 lower on the overnight session. Don't expect to do anything here.

Still plan on keeping my shorts in cotton today. USDA adjusted U.S. production higher which suprised most analysts. Yields also were increased and export projections were decreased. Lots of bearish news out there for cotton and chart is looking bearish so I might add to my position today.
 
Shorted 1 contract of jan canola today at 447.

Sugar came down to 985 but im still looking at the 980 point to get long. Its slowly creeping lower and I think I should get a fill on it this week.

Cotton had a little pop today. Nothing to much to be concerned about though. The loss was probably a little exagerated yesterday. Still look for this thing to continue lower.

July wheat tumbled lower yet again today. Down 14 cents. This trade is really starting to roll now! There is a good chance of us breaking the lower trading range at about 650 sometime this week!

Corn backed down a little today while beans up about 10 cents. News here was that informa came out and raised next years planted corn acres which would take more away from the beans. Came within 1 cent of me wanting to get long but I want to see what happens at the 390 level on march corn.

Positions:
short 2 july wheat
short 1 march cotton
short 1 jan canola
short 1 corn put
short 1 apple call

Possible Positions:
long march corn
long march sugar
 
Quote from youngtrader:

Sold that march/oct bean oil spread friday at .10. ...
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I almost sh*t when you said you were putting on that trade in the first place -- there was no indication on the chart when it would turn around -- looked like a HUGE risk to me.

So, the next day, after getting pounded, you smartly cut your loss.

However, now, if you had just waited two days instead of jumping in in the hopes of beating everyone else in, you might have been right about this spread in the first place.

I thought your fundamentals were sound to begin with, but not yet reflected by direction. There was, indeed, a HUGE reverse in this spread in today's trade (Tues., 11/13/07).

As a result, I would say, see first if this spread crosses back up near or over 0 premium, LONG Oct08/SHORT Mar08. If it does, THEN leap right back in, expecting trade back up to, hopefully, at least +.50 premium in favor of the Oct08, or better.

My thoughts are that because:


(1) Bean acreage contracted in 2007 in favor of Corn due to the "Ethanol Thing";

(2) Wheat planting 2007-2008, due to unexpectedly short supply and high prices, will take a lot of this acreage back from Corn and will NOT give any up to Beans;

(3) Bean carryover will be a lot less than it was last year;

(4) No new acreage expansion in the coming planting season almost guarantees that next year's Bean carryover will be critically less than this year's;

(5) In the meantime, in the face of falling stocks, crush has EXPANDED (!) over last year's crush; and,

(6) Crush will continue to expand, as China is now pulling out all the plugs to gets its farmers back into Hog production, which they all deserted after recent govt-supervised slaughter of entire herds due to disease problems;


This means that the Oct08 BO (new crop year) contract has absolutely no choice but to eventually outperform all of the more nearby (old crop year) contracts, such as the Mar08.

These are just thoughts, however. They may not even come to complete fruition until planting intentions are known early next year. Any change in the above scenario could severely affect this outlook -- so, as usual, there are never any real GREEN LIGHTS :D .

But, it seems that, lately, I am seeing a lot of so-called "experts" are seeing bits and pieces of the above scenario the same way I presented it. So, this trade may work OK in the near term until about a month before planting intentions begin to be bandied about seriously and some ag reports start coming out.

GTTY :) :cool: :)

---

Mike Collier
Oak Harbor, WA
 
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