Youngtrader's Commodity Journal

Quote from youngtrader:

Wheat spread closed yesterday at -8'6 This was probably because Iraq bought 50k of hrw which is good for the spread. Like I said bought the sep gas yesterday and beat me up pretty good earlier in the session. Went within 30 ticks of my stop! Came back a little bit later in the session and is up a little this morning so I see no changes to make there.
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Good luck with your trading. I think you are on the right track swing trading as opposed to trying to day trade index futures like most on this site.

You are right about the seasonal tendencies in heating oil and unleaded gas at the moment. However, don't put too much weight on the seasonal factors. Even reliable seasonal tendencies can fail dramatically in any one year. My own opinion is that the long side in the energies is looking like it is late in the day, there has already been a large move off the lows. I think the risk is to the downside, but I could be wrong. Good luck.
 
Hey thanks for the advice. I have had some decent luck with seasonal trading in the past. And although I do understand that seasonal tendancies can change dramatically I would rather look at them then not at all. I also base my trading off of technicals and current fundamentals.

Wheat spread closed up today and is currently sitting at -4. Sep gas did great today and I look for that to continue although I will highly consider taking profits at 2.12-2.125 if I see fit to do so. Will keep everyone informed on whats going on tomorrow especially with weekly inventories out.
 
Quote from youngtrader:

Hey thanks for the advice. I have had some decent luck with seasonal trading in the past. And although I do understand that seasonal tendancies can change dramatically I would rather look at them then not at all. I also base my trading off of technicals and current fundamentals.

Wheat spread closed up today and is currently sitting at -4. Sep gas did great today and I look for that to continue although I will highly consider taking profits at 2.12-2.125 if I see fit to do so. Will keep everyone informed on whats going on tomorrow especially with weekly inventories out.
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Don't get me wrong, I think seasonals are a great tool to use. They apply to all markets. You just have to bear in mind they sometimes fail. I personally have found unleaded gas seasonals to be some of the most reliable of all seasonals.
 
Got out of sep gas today at 2.09. Disappointed that I did not take my money yesterday after the huge move up but still about a 1.5 cent profit so I can't really complain. Was not expecting that bearish of a inventory report this morning. Bought 1 sep gas again at 2.0198 with the idea of a little bounce before the close which turned out to be correct and with good support around 2.00. Keep in mind that the build was 100,000 more than expected in gas but about a million more than expected in distilates according to my estimates I looked at. We are refining the crude for the distilates now not the gasoline. I know this because the last few inventories reports have been about the same as todays. Still will look for an area to enter oct or nov heating oil. Because we are still in tight supply for that commodity.

Wheat spread closed at -8 down about 4 cents I see no changes to be made there.
 
Hey everyone sorry I didn't post on the thread yesterday but I have cousins over for the week so we have been busy trap shooting and fishing and all other good things. Wheat spread has lost a lot of ground lately but I STILL see no reason to get out of that trade. Instead I will look at getting long that dec Minn/Chi wheat spread. Still long sep gasoline at 2.0198 with stop at 1.9998. Will keep everyone informed on anything else I see out there.
 
Wheat spread closed down 1'2 at -14. Sep gas closed down .0152 at 2.0210. Not much to say, nothing did well today but at the same time I see no reason to change. Starting to get ready for the dec minn/chi trade. Sep/Dec minni is starting to pop which might be premature but could start to signal a rise in cash prices and that the harvest low is in. Time will tell what I do here. Also looking at maybe a long nov beans in hear for a few cents.
 
Sold a Sep/Dec minni wheat spread at -5 with stop at-3. Looks to be a little overdone to the upside hear. Also bought a Dec KC/Chi wheat spread again at -19 with stop at -24. Looking at some other minni spreads here will keep informed if I do anything.
 
sold a sep/march minni at -11 with a 2 cent stop. Once again I think we are a little overdone to the upside in this spread just like the sep/dec and with harvest about 30% done and going great with nice yeilds I expect that to help the position.
 
Sep/Dec minni closed at -6. Sep/March closed at -13. Dec KC/Chi closed at -23. All worked today except the damn kc/chi. I still feel like this is quite a bargain at these levels and wouldn't be suprised if I buy more of it tomorrow. Friday we have a report out so we will see what happens there. I wouldn't mind selling some dec corn before the report at around 360 but I doubt I will get the chance.
 
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