... OK
GL
Youngtrader's Commodity Journal
- Thread starter youngtrader
- Start date
GL
I am sure you have heard it before, but I still feel that it should be said again - you're risk exposure is too high. I don't risk more than 0.3% on any trade, which might be too conservative for many. From what I have learned, risking anything more than 1.5% per trade is negligent risk management that does not properly take into account the possibility of a series of losses.
Do not take this as me bashing you. I just don't want to sugarcoat the truth because I think that you are smarter than that. The fact is that you're risk exposure levels at the moment leave you very open to the possibility of incurring a 10 - 15% drawdown within a relatively short time frame (within a month). Just one of way looking at it - a hedge fund suffering losses on that scale that quickly would have many of it's investors pull out. Now I am not saying that you are going to lose. What I am saying is that if you want to survive in this business, you should be prepared for the worst.
Do not take this as me bashing you. I just don't want to sugarcoat the truth because I think that you are smarter than that. The fact is that you're risk exposure levels at the moment leave you very open to the possibility of incurring a 10 - 15% drawdown within a relatively short time frame (within a month). Just one of way looking at it - a hedge fund suffering losses on that scale that quickly would have many of it's investors pull out. Now I am not saying that you are going to lose. What I am saying is that if you want to survive in this business, you should be prepared for the worst.
Bought 5 may corn here @ 552.5
Looking to dump em at 556.25 tonight
We came to R2 pivot and are holding ground as of right now. Paper selling seems to be tired and bids are stepping up.
Looking to dump em at 556.25 tonight
We came to R2 pivot and are holding ground as of right now. Paper selling seems to be tired and bids are stepping up.
Out at 554.75
$562 profit
Some nice size offering around tonights gap. I seen it there earlier tonight also so it might be honest. Im looking to maybe short around that level but will keep you guys informed.
A break below 552.25 and we are headed for 547.5
$562 profit
Some nice size offering around tonights gap. I seen it there earlier tonight also so it might be honest. Im looking to maybe short around that level but will keep you guys informed.
A break below 552.25 and we are headed for 547.5
Sorry guys I was going to post on friday after the close but for some reason or another I just didn't feel like updating my journal lol!
Well I was right!!! I knew it, I knew it, I knew it! This fucking stock market had no place else to go but down. Problem is that the fucking thing sucked 5k out of me before it happened! I did manage to get 2 shorts off at 1355 (im still fucking kicking myself for being such a fucking retard and pussying out of the first trade). Anyway I guess I can't complain about getting 2 nice shorts off (although they could of been at way better prices). Im holding these little babies until 1300......mabe lower.
Also looking at buying some may corn this week if I can get it bought at a bargain price (525-535). Rumer is starting to circle that china will take off its taxes on imported corn. This is a very bullish factor considering china is the #2 producer of corn in the world. If they are in as deep of shit as I think they are then you could see corn prices at $7 a bushel very soon!!! I also hear that corn could lose 10-15 million acres this year!!! Corn is deffinantly the value play out there in the grain complex.
Just started posting some of my overnight scalps in corn. I think its a nice little touch to the journal and a very profitable touch! If anybody out there is day trading the grains on the overnights or even during RTH feel free to post your trades on the journal.
I won't be posting any of my scalps in corn tonight as I have an FFA farm managers meeting (we are going to talk about selling some of our grain that we have on our FFA farm). So I won't be trading the overnights tonight but will probably talk to you all tomorrow.
Well I was right!!! I knew it, I knew it, I knew it! This fucking stock market had no place else to go but down. Problem is that the fucking thing sucked 5k out of me before it happened! I did manage to get 2 shorts off at 1355 (im still fucking kicking myself for being such a fucking retard and pussying out of the first trade). Anyway I guess I can't complain about getting 2 nice shorts off (although they could of been at way better prices). Im holding these little babies until 1300......mabe lower.
Also looking at buying some may corn this week if I can get it bought at a bargain price (525-535). Rumer is starting to circle that china will take off its taxes on imported corn. This is a very bullish factor considering china is the #2 producer of corn in the world. If they are in as deep of shit as I think they are then you could see corn prices at $7 a bushel very soon!!! I also hear that corn could lose 10-15 million acres this year!!! Corn is deffinantly the value play out there in the grain complex.
Just started posting some of my overnight scalps in corn. I think its a nice little touch to the journal and a very profitable touch! If anybody out there is day trading the grains on the overnights or even during RTH feel free to post your trades on the journal.
I won't be posting any of my scalps in corn tonight as I have an FFA farm managers meeting (we are going to talk about selling some of our grain that we have on our FFA farm). So I won't be trading the overnights tonight but will probably talk to you all tomorrow.
Hi Young!
What are your thoughts on Wheat?
I was one of the lucky ones who happened to own May ZW on Thursday morning and sold after it went up 60 points from my entry
Are we going to start trending up or is the fun over in it and am I better off in ZS or ZC ?
Good Luck this week to everyone !!
What are your thoughts on Wheat?
I was one of the lucky ones who happened to own May ZW on Thursday morning and sold after it went up 60 points from my entry
Are we going to start trending up or is the fun over in it and am I better off in ZS or ZC ?
Good Luck this week to everyone !!
Quote from xyannix:
Hi Young!
What are your thoughts on Wheat?
I was one of the lucky ones who happened to own May ZW on Thursday morning and sold after it went up 60 points from my entry
Are we going to start trending up or is the fun over in it and am I better off in ZS or ZC ?
Good Luck this week to everyone !!
xyannix
Good to hear from you and congrats on the fat profit in wheat! Although if you want to keep your sanity I would recommend staying out of that market.
The wheat situation is a crazy situation. We literally have no wheat on the world market and that is what is driving the prices......there is no wheat at all period!!! I think wheat will continue to be supported but it could and will have some crazy wipsaws for a long time.
On the other hand I think you might be right about moving to soybeans and corn. These markets (especially corn) are the best of the grains to be in right now. Both corn and soybeans have huge a huge demand picture and that only looks to continue. Ethanol demand is huge right now and that only looks to increase. Also corn could experience a 10-15 million acre decrease this year if it continues to lag soybeans and spring wheat. However I think we are in for a slight pullback pretty quick and I look to be a buyer on any nice dips in both soybeans and corn.
Please let me know if you have anymore questions and good luck in the grains!
I don't know about pure luck although it sure helps right lol? Grace of the big guy upstairs never hurts either!
I would trade July actually for a few reasons. The first is it is new crop and we should have a big new crop coming up this year so it should be a little more tame than some of the old crop contracts but to be honest I would just stay the hell out unless you have enough capital to back you.
Give me some time to work out some levels on a chart and I will get back to you probably tonight.