Wow, I just got back from the bars/clubs, and my entire email was filled up with replys. Why don't you guys leave the market at the office and enjoy the weekend. I also think about the market almost 24/7, but I know when to give it a break so I can enjoy myself. Trust me, some R&R will make you a much more focused trader when monday comes around.
Anyway, I figured I'd chime in (even considering my inebriated state). I'm not sure how coherent this will be just b/c there are so many things to respond to. I will just go through and respond I guess.
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Firstly, tradermike, I am surprised that you have held up as well under these attacks, and that you continue to post in a positive manner. As for your comment towards me regarding Gary B. Smith. Go back and read the article, he thought OPTN had already moved too far in % terms. I hope the trade works out for you. You claim to have been very profitable. Congrats. I just think that the shorter your timeframe is, the more risk control you have. I know that on any position I trade, my slippage if I decide to bail is only 1/4 point if I sell all at market. That is the main determining factor in my position size. Last week, I took positions of over 50k shares on 2 occasions. I knew I could get out down a dime at any point during the trade. That's the advantage of short term trading. I don't have to worry about the news. In your case, you have to be concerned about something comming out that halves your stock. I also believe that a lot of short trades will give you better profits b/c of compounding. I would rather take 5000 high probability trades over the course of the year, than stake my yearly p/l on 3 dozen trades. The odds of a stock doubling or trippling in 6-12 months are slim (people just deceived themselves during the tech mania). I would rather just make those quick 1% gains and move on. But every trader has his methods, and since you are profitable, I don't blame you for sticking to what works for you, and I'll stick to what works for me.
As for soros, I take back my earlier comments. He did daytrade. He was much bigger though. He would bully the sp futs after every fed meeting. He would decide which way the market would go before the meeting, if it was up, he'd buy equities for a few days before the meeting, then right after the announcement, he'd buy, and keep on buying til the sellers gave in, and the shorts covered. I've heard stories from sp guys that a decade ago, after a fed meeting, they wouldn't react til they saw those muli-thousand contract orders comming in, cause they knew that soros would move the market and they wanted to be on his side. He also traded currencies. You can move billions with very little slippage in most of the major currencies.
Buffett never was a short term trader, but he also only has averaged about 30% annual range I believe. Most successful traders make a few hundred percent yearly. Granted, in dollar terms, he makes more than any traders, but then again no one has set me up with a multi-billion dollar trust to trade [yet]. I'd be very happy to make a few hundred k's a year, and I think most people on this board would be very pleased with that as well.
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Sniper wrote:
In the book "The Stock Trader" by Tony Oz he makes 56% return in one month trading short-term something like 100 trades or so. Now if you compound this return over 6 months, you will get 1440% return. Almost TEN times better than your returns with limited overnight risk. If I had a choice of one of the two, I'd rather have his daytrading returns over investing returns anytime "
Those are actually my returns and not his. You errased your origional comment, so I won't ellaborate too much, but Tony Oz is a god, I'm mortal. I would just hope that I am half as good ten years from now when I have a decade of experience.
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Tradermike wrote:
"I disagree about the time frame comment. The shorter your timeframe is, the better your odds of success are.. ..There are too many opportunities for news to affect the market. I definately think that the shorter your timeframe, the better your odds are."
This is completely false and to hold this belief is to deny reality. For whatever reason you are trying to deny the difficulty of daytrading. You either want lurkers to think daytrading is easy or else you are trying to tell yourself that it is easier than it really is.
I admit that daytrading is probably the most difficult profession around. But if you want to put in the time and effort, it is most likely the most financially rewarding one around. I have no real motives, but you are flatly wrong for thinking that most traders have stopped trading, or are adapting to something of a much longer timeframe. I never traded cmgi. I could care less what it is doing. For half of last year, I traded mainly MO. I have since switched to DIS. But I still trade for those same quarters I always have. A decade from now, DIS will still be the same stock. I also know dozens of other traders who are just as profitable, or more profitable now than during the internet bubble. The good traders were never taking 40 point scalps in china.com. They were taking their half point gains in GE,UTX and AA. There is no way you can control your risk on monster swings like those tech stocks had. I wish I could have caught just one of those monster moves, but I could never bring myself to use a 5 point stop, and pay a half point spread.
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Spud wrote:
SPUD- I find your comments to be the most inflamitory on this whole thread. I don't know how I got the designation of "senior member" (I never asked for it. It just magically appeared somehow), but since you singled us out, I would like to speak for all "senior traders" on this board. I am friendly with quite a few of them, and their main motives are to provide a place that we can all talk strategy. To the best of my knowlege, none are trying to hype a service, or take money from the inexperienced.
When I was first strugling, I found this site to be far superior to yahoo and SI. That's why I remained and gave up on the others. When I finally achieved a certain level of success, I felt that it was time to give something back to the least experienced because of the help I was given by members (many of whom are still actively posting here). I think that the frauds who come here to hype their sites are very quickly figured out, and find themselves unwelcome.
I sell no product. Lately I have mentioned my room at yahoo, because of a rather extreme interest in a trading method that I use. I am willing to take time to show anyone interested in this method for free. All I ask in return is that if you find it fits your personality, is that you remain there, and help us all not miss any trades.
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I hope these comments all make sense, and don't seem like just the musings of a hung over fraternity guy. I am sure that there are many replys, and please direct them at whoever, in whatever manner is appropriate. There is no reason to ever stifle spirited conversation.
Anyway, I figured I'd chime in (even considering my inebriated state). I'm not sure how coherent this will be just b/c there are so many things to respond to. I will just go through and respond I guess.
----------------------------------------------------
Firstly, tradermike, I am surprised that you have held up as well under these attacks, and that you continue to post in a positive manner. As for your comment towards me regarding Gary B. Smith. Go back and read the article, he thought OPTN had already moved too far in % terms. I hope the trade works out for you. You claim to have been very profitable. Congrats. I just think that the shorter your timeframe is, the more risk control you have. I know that on any position I trade, my slippage if I decide to bail is only 1/4 point if I sell all at market. That is the main determining factor in my position size. Last week, I took positions of over 50k shares on 2 occasions. I knew I could get out down a dime at any point during the trade. That's the advantage of short term trading. I don't have to worry about the news. In your case, you have to be concerned about something comming out that halves your stock. I also believe that a lot of short trades will give you better profits b/c of compounding. I would rather take 5000 high probability trades over the course of the year, than stake my yearly p/l on 3 dozen trades. The odds of a stock doubling or trippling in 6-12 months are slim (people just deceived themselves during the tech mania). I would rather just make those quick 1% gains and move on. But every trader has his methods, and since you are profitable, I don't blame you for sticking to what works for you, and I'll stick to what works for me.
As for soros, I take back my earlier comments. He did daytrade. He was much bigger though. He would bully the sp futs after every fed meeting. He would decide which way the market would go before the meeting, if it was up, he'd buy equities for a few days before the meeting, then right after the announcement, he'd buy, and keep on buying til the sellers gave in, and the shorts covered. I've heard stories from sp guys that a decade ago, after a fed meeting, they wouldn't react til they saw those muli-thousand contract orders comming in, cause they knew that soros would move the market and they wanted to be on his side. He also traded currencies. You can move billions with very little slippage in most of the major currencies.
Buffett never was a short term trader, but he also only has averaged about 30% annual range I believe. Most successful traders make a few hundred percent yearly. Granted, in dollar terms, he makes more than any traders, but then again no one has set me up with a multi-billion dollar trust to trade [yet]. I'd be very happy to make a few hundred k's a year, and I think most people on this board would be very pleased with that as well.
--------------------------------------------------
Sniper wrote:
In the book "The Stock Trader" by Tony Oz he makes 56% return in one month trading short-term something like 100 trades or so. Now if you compound this return over 6 months, you will get 1440% return. Almost TEN times better than your returns with limited overnight risk. If I had a choice of one of the two, I'd rather have his daytrading returns over investing returns anytime "
Those are actually my returns and not his. You errased your origional comment, so I won't ellaborate too much, but Tony Oz is a god, I'm mortal. I would just hope that I am half as good ten years from now when I have a decade of experience.
---------------------------------------------------
Tradermike wrote:
"I disagree about the time frame comment. The shorter your timeframe is, the better your odds of success are.. ..There are too many opportunities for news to affect the market. I definately think that the shorter your timeframe, the better your odds are."
This is completely false and to hold this belief is to deny reality. For whatever reason you are trying to deny the difficulty of daytrading. You either want lurkers to think daytrading is easy or else you are trying to tell yourself that it is easier than it really is.
I admit that daytrading is probably the most difficult profession around. But if you want to put in the time and effort, it is most likely the most financially rewarding one around. I have no real motives, but you are flatly wrong for thinking that most traders have stopped trading, or are adapting to something of a much longer timeframe. I never traded cmgi. I could care less what it is doing. For half of last year, I traded mainly MO. I have since switched to DIS. But I still trade for those same quarters I always have. A decade from now, DIS will still be the same stock. I also know dozens of other traders who are just as profitable, or more profitable now than during the internet bubble. The good traders were never taking 40 point scalps in china.com. They were taking their half point gains in GE,UTX and AA. There is no way you can control your risk on monster swings like those tech stocks had. I wish I could have caught just one of those monster moves, but I could never bring myself to use a 5 point stop, and pay a half point spread.
------------------------------------------------------
Spud wrote:
SPUD- I find your comments to be the most inflamitory on this whole thread. I don't know how I got the designation of "senior member" (I never asked for it. It just magically appeared somehow), but since you singled us out, I would like to speak for all "senior traders" on this board. I am friendly with quite a few of them, and their main motives are to provide a place that we can all talk strategy. To the best of my knowlege, none are trying to hype a service, or take money from the inexperienced.
When I was first strugling, I found this site to be far superior to yahoo and SI. That's why I remained and gave up on the others. When I finally achieved a certain level of success, I felt that it was time to give something back to the least experienced because of the help I was given by members (many of whom are still actively posting here). I think that the frauds who come here to hype their sites are very quickly figured out, and find themselves unwelcome.
I sell no product. Lately I have mentioned my room at yahoo, because of a rather extreme interest in a trading method that I use. I am willing to take time to show anyone interested in this method for free. All I ask in return is that if you find it fits your personality, is that you remain there, and help us all not miss any trades.
--------------------------------------------------
I hope these comments all make sense, and don't seem like just the musings of a hung over fraternity guy. I am sure that there are many replys, and please direct them at whoever, in whatever manner is appropriate. There is no reason to ever stifle spirited conversation.